Sunil Seth
The United Nation Development Programme has warned that India need to generate 28 Crore jobs before 2050 to absorb all the new entrants into the work force. Probably, it’s flagship programme “Make in India”, may lead to creation of jobs but the State of Jammu and Kashmir has a different scenario as far as jobs are concerned. The “RAGA” of development is being sung everywhere within India as well as abroad for the credential ratings. The fact that the “Development” will lead to “Unemployment” leads us in a “Catch 22” situation. Technological Advances leading to “Automation” will generates jobs in one sector but will complicate the job prospects in all other fields. In fact, it’s an inference, that it is cheaper to use “Robots” than “Human Beings”. As a result the employment may see a decline in manufacturing sector. “Development-and-Unemployment” Syndrome is gripping many countries except the few who are able to stride along with the technological advances. There is a law which reflects the relationship between “Unemployment” and “GDP” growth. It is named as “OKUN’S LAW”. No Govt. in this world can sustain a jobless growth for a long period of time. The law was formulated by economist “Arthur Melvin Okun”; Okun’s Law says that if unemployment rises by 1 percent, the GDP growth rate will be impacted by 2 percent or it will be 2 percent lower than the potential of the country.
The State of J&K being way behind as the absence of “Industrial Platform”, leaves little chance of generation of jobs as far as the basics behind “MODINOMIC”, which insists on the concept of “Make In India” is based. Since the world is on “Artificial Intelligence” wheels and in turn is all associated with Indoor jobs. Sectors, as far as, the “Manufacturing” and “Distribution”, being the key sector for employment, our State is not a preferred destination because of its peculiar geographical location. In its economic report of the year 2016, J&K Labour Minister, Haseeb Drabu reflected that 87650 of the youth got registered with the employment centre of the State and the rate of unemployment in J&K is higher than average national employment rate with the State having 24.6% of the population in the age of 18-29 years. Moreover, the State is highly dependent on outside supplies of not only material but men also. Our State is the net purchaser of items worth almost 60,000 Crores a year.
The dependence on material is easily understandable but the paradox of employment is a grave matter of concern largely due to the economic distress and mismatch of the opportunities. As per the statistics between 1981-2011; occupational pattern of the State too has shifted from “Primary Sector”, which decreased from 63.88 to 41.48% and “Secondary Sector”, which decreased from 14.25 to 3.99%, trending towards the increase of employment in “Tertiary Sector” i.e. the Service Sector from 21.87 to 54.33%. The shift from “Primary to Tertiary” is without undergoing the development in the “Secondary Sector”, which in fact provides the maximum opportunities for creation of jobs on a larger scale. It highlights lopsided path of economic development on one hand and agricultural / industrial backwardness on the other. It has created an alarming situation as the “Tertiary Sector”, yet unexplored to its fullest capacity, probably too, does not have the capacity to absorb the ever increasing unemployed labour force of the State. Also the topographical limitations; geographical location and exposure to limited technological advancements is adding on the problem to an unfathomable levels. Another fact which can be viewed seriously is that all the unskilled and semi-skilled labour intensive jobs like field workers; fruit / vegetable vendors; plumbers; carpenters; painters; electricians and many more in the constructional sectors are being handled by the workforce from the other States. If this influx is checked; all the constructional / developmental activities in our State will come to stand still. This aspect well reflects the behavioral side of the native population as all want to vouch for Govt. Jobs and none want to explore other sides of the employment platform which too not strategically explored and planned, as far as our State is concerned, with 44% of the population of the State being in the active age group of 15-40 years. Another “Nail in the Coffin” is that the premier institutes like IIM; IIT; School of Architecture; Central University along with the already existing Education Sector; adding to the talent but the State not being able to respond to their career growth is leading to “Brain Drain” from the State with the best Brains leaving the native land; the Brains which can be instrumental in policy making for employment generation and the future development of the State.
The “Primary Sector”, which is categorically associated with agriculture, has limitations as far as the topography of our State is concerned; arable land being too limited unlike Punjab. Hence, the possibility of employment generation in this sector can be ruled out. As far as the “Secondary Sector”, which is associated with “Manufacturing”, which can in turn be boosted by “Industrial Setup”, too is not being given the due consideration because of the strategic instabilities looming all the time around. It also takes a back seat, no doubt it being the biggest contributor to the employment front. Nonetheless, we are left with only one sector which can be looked after is the “Tertiary Sector”. The fact that, the development of “Tertiary Sector”, in the absence of “The Primary and the Secondary”, is a lop sided development but herein as far as our State is concerned, the only way to boost employment is the “Tertiary Sector”; which can act as a “Life Saving Drug” to check the “Brain Drain” of the native youth as has been reflected in the lines above. It can be on the pattern of “Silicon Valley” in U.S; and cities like “Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurugram”.
This is definitely going to give an opportunity to the younger talented youth from institutes like IIM, IIT, NIT and many more educational institutes of the State, who are otherwise compelled to leave the State in search of “Greener Pastures”; the brains which could have been instrumental in the development of the native land. Moreover, the limitations in the growth of “Primary and Secondary” Sector i.e. the topography and the geographical location has no meaning as far as the blooming of the “Tertiary Sector” is concerned; it being primarily “Internet Dependent”, which in itself has no bounds. Also, the “Master Plan of J&K needs to be revisited with declaring the roads which can officially be declared as commercial”, can enable a chunk of population with not enough of educational strength, too may find a way for sustenance and unemployment mitigation thereof. Additionally, this will help in growing the revenue to the State exchequer too. As the India’s demographic graph has a “Bulge” in the Centre which means a concentration of population in the age group that constitutes a nation’s potential work force; the store house of talent energy and scalable achievement which is synonymous with the active age group of our State too.
To ensure sustainable development, the “Talent Gap”, explained as the anomaly of “Rising Unemployment” and “Falling Growth” needs to be cupped which can only be addressed if the “Tertiary Sector” is given the prime focus as enunciated above. If ever this demographic advantage is not exploited; the same is going to add to the “Dependency Ratio” in future in our country too like U.S, China, Western Europe and Japan. The advantage of “Demographic Dividend” being boasted by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi will turn into another disaster i.e. the “Demographic Disaster”, to be handled in future along with the other Disasters in the Disaster Management Policies of the Country.
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