2014 is crucial for economy

Sugato Hazra
Year 2013 is significant for many reasons. This was the year of change when Indian politics deviated from its past oft-used formula. This was the year of continuation, that of the democratic process seen since the formation of the democratic republic of India. This was the year of turmoil when political system witnessed several changes. This was the year of stability when the disruptions cleansed the system and made it more acceptable. This was the year of despair when many lost patience with the inflexibility of the political process. This is the year of hope, a sense that year 2014 will build on the foundation laid by the year passing by.
Momentous changes touched the political system in many ways. Congress opted for a new leader giving the official number two position to Rahul Gandhi as the party’s newly created post of vice-president. Opposition BJP finally overcame its hesitation and anointed Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate for 2014. Rank outsider Arvind Kejriwal with his newly formed Aam Admi Party broke into the system with a stunning electoral victory in Delhi and forming government. Nitish Kumar broke a 17-year old alliance with BJP-led NDA depriving BJP the satisfaction of being in the ruling alliance in the state of Bihar. Karnataka, the major south Indian state having BJP Government, opted for Congress in the state election. Andhra Pradesh went into confusion with the decision of Congress to bifurcate the state into Telengana and Rayalaseema. 2013. At the end of the year the prospect of election 2014 remained in a state of puzzle.
The year 2013 closed with elections in five states – three large Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, politically sensitive national capital territory of Delhi and a small north-eastern state of Mizoram. BJP swept the three Hindi heartland states with massive mandates in two large states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Delhi placed Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party (AAP) as a close second enticing them to accept support from its bête noire Congress. Kejriwal’s election success made the established political system to re-evaluate the mood of the nation and quickly opt for the Lokpal Bill. Demand for Lokpal by the social activist Anna Hazare had helped Arvind Kejriwal getting his stepping-stone in Delhi politics. Predictably both BJP and Congress sensed the problems that AAP can create unless they, too, opt for course correction.
The key-message of 2013 had been that people are restless with corruption in the system. The youth in particular had shown their irreverence for the hitherto well-accepted political rubrics. They are now looking for transparency in policy, corruption free system and more important development so as to gain from the process of growth. People have clearly shown their reluctance to opt for bequests and subsidies. They demand growth, a change in the system of allowances. Thus the Gujarat model and its chief minister Narendra Modi is attracting attention. For Kejriwal the future still remains uncertain. While his model of corruption free governance is popular but how far he can offer subsidies, as promised before the election, remains suspect.
How will events unfold in the New Year? Till the election is over the focus will be politics. Already the decision taking process has taken a back seat. In the recently concluded winter session of the Parliament the only bill that was passed was politically sensitive Lokpal Bill. Important economic legislations remained untouched. Such policy indecisions have hit India when USA has announced tapering of its easy money policy. Indian central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, is concerned. It has been walking the tightrope while managing the monetary policy. Inflation is high and causing a political problem for the ruling UPA. The recent election results thus saw Congress facing the ire of the voters.
There is speculation on how long will India’s Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh continue on his job. Within Congress there are strong murmurs for declaring Rahul Gandhi as the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014. The question is where will it place Dr Singh during the interregnum. Congress need to get over its hesitation and come to the face the election with a well articulated agenda. It cannot continue to be on the defensive and hope to do well in the hustings.
The regional parties are also in the throes of preparation.  Some leaders like Mamata in West Bengal, Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, Naveen Patnaik in Odisha and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh seem to be strong in their respective territories.  Certain states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar will see some more realignment of forces and may witness at least three-cornered contests. Amidst such turbulence how much Kejriwal’s AAP can penetrate remains a big question. In Delhi the fledgling party ate into Congress vote bank and stopped BJP gaining from the strong anti-incumbency sentiment in the city. In the absence of any such favourable factor how much AAP can penetrate into the strongholds of regional parties remains to be seen.
Year 2014 is crucial for the economy. The indecisions and uncertainty prevailing during the larger part of the second UPA Government from 2009 has hurt the Indian growth story. The people are looking for a decisive Government under a strong leader. But the rules of coalition politics are complex. Only the numbers of seats won by different political forces will finally ensure formation of a government. This might not be decisive or strong as per the hopes of the people. India, politically, is standing at a critical cross road. (IPA)

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