Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi
Everybody knows that today elections are only the game of numbers, hence every political party chooses a candidate who has the maximum chances of his/her victory, but in the above mentioned context, the grand strategy of the BJP reflects just otherwise.
Just possible that BharityaJanata Party (BJP) has recently distributed the party tickets to the most suitable candidates, as per its own best assessments regarding their ability to win their respective seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, but a careful study in this context, particularly with respect to only threetop most BJPleaders viz. Prime Ministerial candidate Naredra Modi, former Party President Murli Manohar Joshi and present Party President Rajnath Singh leads to raise serious questions whether it is an exercise to win the majority of seats and to form a Government on its own strength under the leadership of Narendra Modi or a deliberate and shrewd tactics for some nefarious game with a view to alter the on-going scheme of hitherto projected grand victory under Mr. Modi’s leadership. Also by denying the party ticket to a very prominent and senior leader Jasawant Singh is also beyond one’s comprehension about the party’s wisdom for ensuring success because he is a very popular and leading stalwart in his constituency which he has been representing many times since long. Now he may, most likely, reduce the BJP’s tally by one seat as he is there an independent candidate and will win in all probability.
If we come to candidature of Mr.Murli Manohar Joshi in Kanpur, though he is a very senior leader and has been a devoted RSS cadre, yet he does not enjoy the required influence in Kanpur because Mr. Joshi had never represented Kanpur earlier nor has he worked in Kanpur in any capacity, whereas the sitting MP Prakash Jaiswal of Congress-I Party is a prominent local person and enjoys considerable cloutbecause ofbeing a vaishya- a business community which is a major and united community here as Kanpur is an important industrial hub of trade and commerce in Uttar Pradesh. Obviously business interests prominently galore here and whosoever can vigorously and vociferously express the commercial interests of the business community can easily go through the elections. Although Mr. Joshi had won the Varanasi constituency in the previous LokSabha election, but equally important is the fact to be carefully noticed that despite being associated with Allahabad University for many decades and also winning his seat before, he could not win Allahabad constituency prior to the last election and was forced to seek another constituency in the subsequent Lok Sabha election ie. Varanasi, where he could win due to united upper cast vote and that, too, by just around 17000 votes against Mukhatar Ansari, who was a no match against Mr. Joshi. It clearly shows his sagging popularity among the electorates wherein a particular reason has been the all-pervading resentment among Central School Teachers who were deeply hurt by Mr Joshi’s contentious transfer policy during BJP’s earlier regime wherein he was the Human Resource Minister at the Centre, under which a teacher, e.g. in Allahabad was transferred to Nagaland or Arunchal Pradesh and, in this context, even lady teachers were nor spared and were persecuted to undergo the trauma and agony of Mr Joshi’s ever enthusiastic transfer policy. Perhaps that led to his assured defeat in the next Lok Sabha elections in 2004. Now how will go through in the coming election against a well-established vaishya leader in Kanpur, though upper cast voters are there in majority but upper cast seldom unites like Muslims or other Backward castes, raises million dollar question?
In the same way Mr.Narendra Modi’s candidature in Varanasi appears to be meaningless because, though he is a well-projected PM candidate and has so farorganised a very good show of command and strength in the Party and also all over in the country andalso because he has to his credit the full support of Yoga Guru Baba Ramdev and his followers, and also that of the RSS and its cadres as he himself was the cadre of this organisation in the beginning, yet the residents of Varanasi know very well that their constituency is only an alternative to Mr Modi’s constituency in Gujarat where he is destined to win, although Mr Modi has proclaimed that the Varanasi seat will be retained by him if he wins. But this promise may not get translated into votes, because voters are now very cautious over such tall promises and seldom get swayed by such propaganda of the political leaders during election times, and, thus, that may create a difficulty for him.
In the prestigious Lucknow seat in U. P., where the Party President Rajnath Singh is pitted against a prominent Congress leader and former Party’s State President Rita Bahuguna Joshi, and that makes a tough fight for him because Mrs. Joshi has a strong political family background and she also enjoys considerable clout among the voters in this constituency. Also because, Mr Singh himself is mired in bitter controversies, particularly, in the context of ticket distribution to several prominent, senior and potential candidates of the BJP, and that may cause intra-party infightings and secret efforts to defeat him (Mr. Singh) in a bid to teach him a lesson. Further, the Samajwadi and BSP candidates in Lucknow will also deeply penetrate into the accrued gains of both the Candidates of BJP and Congress-I Party.
Against this backdrop, the pertinent question naturally arises as to what is the real strategy of the BJP as regards its success in the forthcoming elections and, consequent, Government formation at the Centre, although the present description is confined to only three Candidates of the Party, but, in fact, all the three are the most important candidates of Party whose victory or defeat will decide to great extent the future course of the Party in waiting for formation of Government at the Centre. Is there any well-planned secret strategy which may create a situation after the outcome of the election results, wherein the BJP may not win a clear majority despite being a single largest Party, and that may force the Party to seek alliances from other regional political parties which will not accept Mr, Modi as the Prime Minister, and will opt for some other one, most probably Mr.Rajnath Singh to become the next Prime Minister.
As everybody knows that today elections are only the game of numbers, hence every political party chooses a candidate who has the maximum chances of his or her victory, but in the above mentioned context, the grand strategy of the BJP reflects just otherwise which, in all likelihood, may change the actual outcome after the elections, to result into something unexpected.
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