Anil Anand
Political graph of Jammu and Kashmir (read Kashmir) is taking a more curious turn as the newly carved out Union Territory has entered the poll mode for three-phased assembly election. The militancy has ebbed in Kashmir valley but it has found a new theatre in the otherwise peaceful Jammu region. The political landscape, not matching with the ground level normalcy, is taking a more fragmented shape.
So, is it going to be a stable security scenario versus a highly contentious political landscape during and after the elections? This question assumes significance with the political contours of both Jammu and Kashmir Valley taking shape of a regional rivalry rather than presenting a reassuring unified picture to further strengthen the security scenario through providing stability. This rivalry, though traditional, but, of late, being fomented in a new shape.
The missing link for achieving political and regional unification is the absence of a national party with pan-Jammu, and Kashmir presence, a regional party with a pan-UT appeal or an alliance which covers the entire length and breadth of Jammu and Kashmir in its new form. There is the I.N.D.I.A combine but which is fragmented with a key component Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) kept out of it. The main constituents National Conference and Congress have to perform exceedingly well in their respective strong domains of Kashmir and Jammu to present a stable polity.
Congress in this bloc is the weak link as it lacks organisationally and is under the grip of an old caucus with the party’s central leadership having failed to loosen their stranglehold. The party’s performance in Jammu region is under close scrutiny.
On the face of it National Conference is on a strong wicket in Kashmir and in its pockets of influence in Jammu region. It will be naïve to think that it will sweep the Valley’s 47 seats though it can garner majority. In the ultimate picture its performance will depend on two factors: Firstly, how the Congress fares in Jammu, and secondly how much damage either the PDP or the splinter groups floated by the banned extremist organisations and independents being fielded by them, cause.
In such a loosely knit political firmament the chances of fragmentation loom large. The only way to thwart this that the main political parties or players act responsibly and present their case diligently before the voters, and that people use their wisdom to see through the designs of the main political players in the electoral game. Stability should be the priority and override emotions.
The biggest political party, BJP has a strong presence in Jammu region but is still struggling to find feet in the Valley. Notwithstanding the hype, hoopla and hyperbole, and no dearth of financial resources, the party still has a deficient organizational base and lack of public support in the Muslim majority Valley.
Jammu and Kashmir has a 90-member assembly. This is divided between Jammu and Kashmir segments in the ratio of 43:47 seats respectively.
For any party to form government on its own, it is crucial to win considerable number of seats in both the regions. The BJP is certainly not in such a position presently. It has to win majority of seats in Jammu region and supplement it with good number of seats from the Valley, to reach a majority figure. That certainly is not the case presently. Not only the party is lacking in Kashmir but even in its stronghold of Jammu region it is facing anti-incumbency on account of misgovernance and the lackadaisical attitude of its local leaders.
Significantly, for the first phase of elections the BJP could not field candidates from all 16 seats in Kashmir and ended up with only eight. In comparison the National Conference-Congress-CPM alliance fielded candidates in all the seats. Mr Azad’s DPAP fielded candidates only from five seats.
All efforts of the BJP strategists to create an alternative political narrative in Kashmir through proxies, as its direct approach perhaps did not cut ice with the people and has not yielded any tangible results. The experiments on this front have failed one by one with dismal performance of these proxies and absence of BJP from Lok Sabha election scene in the Valley, dealing a deadly blow.
The proxies came in the form of Apni Party, Peoples Conference and more importantly Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) floated by the then Congress-rebel Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad. They all came cropper as the impression gained, particularly in Kashmir, that they have been propped up by the ruling BJP.
The victory of jailed, under stringent UAPA charges, Awami Ittehad Party leader Engineer Rashid in Lok Sabha election, has introduced yet another new phenomenon in the assembly elections. The idea germinated somewhere in Delhi and its many manifestations are emerging in Kashmir as the election scene is picking up.
The manifestations are various separatist organisations and groups indirectly entering the electoral arena through fielding their activists as independent candidates to fill the space. For example, the banned Jamat Islami, which has been spearheading the separatist movement in the past and was seen as supporting the terrorist group Hijbul Mujahidin, could not make a direct entry as, despite earlier reports, the Centre did not lift ban. So, it is in the fray through fielding independent candidates. The Engineer Rashid model is in full play in the Kashmir Valley with some other jailed separatists/militants filing nomination papers through their families.
Separatist leader Mr Shabir Shah getting bail, he has been jailed for the last seven years in a money laundering case filed by Enforcement Directorate, is a connecting thread with the new ethos of political confusion. President of the outlawed Democratic Freedom Party, he is unlikely to come out of jail as he is facing some other cases as well. What is more important is the messaging of his getting bail in the midst of election.
There is no harm in the separatist elements taking to the main stream and showing faith in the democratic process. But what raises the concern is the timing, motive and the circumstances under which these elements find a common ground to participate in elections. It is more a knee-jerk reaction, an action in self-defence to seek reprieve from the serious charges or jail terms, and lacks any commitment. In any case, they cannot play the role of mainline political parties, as they are mired in their own agenda.
This coupled with failure of the “proxy experiment”, has created a situation of deep-seated confusion. That too in the midst of the elections. A glaring example of this confusion is the “sudden health scare” which the DAPA chief Mr Azad has encountered. He rushed to Delhi’s AIIMS and was discharged after being advised to avoid hectic schedule and take rest.
Speaking to Indian Express, Mr Azad said that doctors had advised him to rest and that his campaigning for the Assembly elections now looked unlikely.
That is a predicament not only for Mr Azad but also portrays a picture full of contradictions and confusions. At such a crucial juncture electoral battle for Jammu and Kashmir has an added prestige, attached by BJP and other political parties, in the light of abrogation of Article 370 and related changes.
But before that the party vice-president and close confidant of Mr Azad, Mr G M Saroori, a former minister also, had filed his nomination papers as an independent candidate and not representing his own party. The obvious intention behind the move is not to be seen as a BJP backed party’s candidate.
This is rather a strange phenomenon but not new to Jammu and Kashmir politics. The confusion does not bode well as it is indicative of split-verdict coming ahead.
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