By Nitya Chakraborty
India’s neighbour Sri Lanka has elected the Marxist-Leninist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the next president in the intensely contested presidential elections held on Saturday, September 21. About 75 per cent of the total of 170 million population who voted, broke away decisively from the binary of two political formations through years and opted for the uncharted path of bringing the National People’s Power (NPP), coalition of 28 fringe left parties and civil society groups, to power at a time when the Sri Lankan economy is facing a major crisis.
The Sri Lankan scenario in September 2024 has some similarity with the present situation in a few Latin American countries like Colombia and Honduras, where the last presidential elections witnessed regime change in favour of the leftists who fought against the US-backed establishment parties for long years even with arms. Dissanayake’s party JVP also twice resorted to arms struggle against the then ruling Sri Lankan governments, but changed course in the last decade to transform into a political combination wedded to political functioning through parliamentary democracy.
In the last parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka in 2020, JVP got only three seats out of the total of 225 but the massive upsurge in 2022 leading to the ouster of the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family members from the government and the consequent continuation of the civil society movement during President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s regime, helped Dissanayake to form a broad platform of opposition parties which would challenge both the establishment parties in the 2024 presidential elections. Dissanayake is a fresh face and his programme and erudition mesmerized the young and the disgruntled among the Sri Lankans who were fed up with the dynasty rule of the country through decades.
Dissanayake has been elected as the President of Sri Lanka, but his party has only three members in Parliament out of 225. Though the President has enough powers for running the administration, on some key issues, the parliament’s consent is needed. The left-wing president has to ensure the support of the rival parties who have big numbers now for the passage of some key reforms which he wants, otherwise, he has to want for the next parliamentary elections due in 2025 to get majority for his ruling combination. That will depend on how the new President runs the government in the remaining period of nearly a year before the Parliamentary elections.
Sri Lanka may be in economic crisis, but the standard of living of the people is much higher as compared to India and other South Asian countries. The education level and women empowerment have been praised by the United Nations in many reports. The issues are corruption at the high level of the administration involving the ruling families and problems about distribution in some essential goods. In recent years, the real income of the workers and low paid Si Lankans has fallen. The unemployment has also suddenly increased like many other South Asian countries. Dissanayake government has to deal with these pressing issues in the next one year to the satisfaction of the Sri Lankan citizens if the NPP president wants to bring about basic changes in the economy and social life as per the NPP programme. The path is tortuous but Dissanayake has the advantage, he can get a honeymoon period before the coming parliamentary elections in 2025.
What is going to be the impact of regime change in Sri Lanka on India and the South Asia policy of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi? Sri Lanka is a very important nation in the Indian Ocean zone and all through the last decade, the Sri Lanka government has been under pressure from USA, China and also India to suit their respective Asia-Pacific policies. Sri Lanka needs both China and India. Though as a Marxist, Dissanayake will be more friendly to China compared to India in his foreign policy perspective, but being a pragmatist, he is not expected to give in too much to Chinese pressure. Already Sri Lanka is a participant in China sponsored BRI initiative. This can be expanded to the benefit of China.
But Dissanayake will certainly not agree to any overture from USA for maritime facility in the Indian Ocean zone of Sri Lankan territory. His programme is committed against it. It is expected that he will follow the example of Vietnam by acting only in the country’s interest while keeping business relations with both China and USA. Vietnam has good experience in knowing Chinese nationalist ambitions in South China Sea waters including the areas belonging officially to Vietnam. Dissanayake, that way is expected to be cautious in dealing with China under Xi Jinping.
As regards India, all depends how India sees its relationship with the new regime to grow. India has helped a lot Colombo during 2022 crisis and later in the last two years. The leftist president is not expected to create any problems for India as India-Sri Lanka collaboration helps Colombo more. But there is a small problem. The NPP coalition partners as also JVP members have a bit anti- India sentiment. The reason is the PM Modi is the leader of a right wing party BJP and he is closest to the USA among the SAARC members. The JVP members are generally anti-US and they are against India becoming a part of the US strategy in Indian Ocean.
Narendra Modi has to approach the new Sri Lankan president with an open mind, not thinking that Dissanayake is soft towards China. Chinaphobia should not determine his decision making regarding relationships with any South Asian country. India can emerge as a great friend of Sri Lanka by expanding the areas of economic collaboration and extending more financial assistance. Ultimately, the economy matters. India has just got that feeling after the Maldives President Muizzu gave up much of his earlier anti- India position and proposing to visit India soon to conclude a number of agreements. Maldives did not get what the president Muizzu expected from China in terms of financial help and that has made all the difference..
For India and Narendra Modi, the crucial issue is the isolation of India among South Asian nations after the coming of the new president in Sri Lanka. Out of the eight nations comprising SAARC — Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Bhutan, Pakistan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, two are led by known Marxists now — Nepal and Sri Lanka. India’s relations with Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan are in bad state – not normal. The relations with Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives are now free of earlier tensions, but not fully normal. The relations with Sri Lanka will have to be seen now how it shapes up in the coming months with Anura Dissanayake in power in Colombo.
Since the boycott by India of the SAARC summit in Islamabad in 2016 due to tensions with Pakistan, no summit of SAARC has been held in the last eight years though routine meetings of the different SAARC panels are continuing. The interim head of Bangladesh Dr. Muhammad Yunus wanted to meet the Indian Prime Minister in New York during UN general assembly session this week. As per the UN programme, PM Modi was scheduled to address UN general assembly on September 26 and Md. Yunus on September 27. But to avoid meeting Dr. Yunus, PM perhaps changed his programme and instead of addressing the main session on September 26, he cut his programme and decided to return on September 23. Dr. Yunus will be in New York from September 24 to 27. Now Indian external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar will represent Indian PM and address UN assembly on September 28.
Significantly, Dr. Md. Yunus told newsmen before leaving for New York that he would take the initiative of reviving SAARC and he will have talks in New York. He will be looking for a joint photo of SAARC heads attending the session in New York. If that photo opportunity is there, Narendra Modi will be missing. ‘We have forgotten the name of SAARC. I am trying to revive the spirit of SAARC’, he said to PTI before leaving for New York.
India’s diplomatic status in the South Asian nations is now pathetic. The situation has been brought to this dismal state not so much for the actions of the external affairs ministry but for the control of the Prime Minister’s Office and its policy manoeuvres. The Vishwaguru of Bharat is angling more for getting applause from the shores of Atlantic rather than our own Indian Ocean. Things must pick up to the mutual benefit of our South Asian neighbours, including Sri Lanka being no exception. (IPA
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