Vishal Sharma
India and China share a peculiar relationship. It has been a love hate kind of relationship, with hate being the leitmotif in it. It is surprising that with cultural and civilizational ties going as far back as more than 1000 years in history, the two nations have not been able to put aside the sense of distrust in the 21st century when relations amongst the nations for the most part are built independent of the medieval age political skullduggery.
Nothing typifies the level of hostility that exist at the ground zero between the two forces more than what was seen during a small spat between Indian and Chinese patrols at a Tawang border outpost. This spat was televised by a media channel, News X, and it made for an unpalatable viewing. The footage showed Chinese soldiers kicking the walls of the bunkers of the Indian soldiers and also letting out streams of abuses at them. Indian soldiers were seen gently pushing them back. It is shown as going on for some time before the footage is pulled out. While it may seem another one of those harmless incidents of sparring between the two armies, but when you have soldiers with loaded assault guns strung from their shoulders, you never know when verbal sparring can give in to gunfights.
It will be naïve to see this incident in isolation though. Chinese border guards have been making incursions deep into Indian territory both in the Ladakh region and in the north-east for some time now. But for the unstated policy of the GoI not to engage them, such misadventures could have easily led to either a small localized conflict or wider war. But it must be said that this naked Chinese aggression on the Indian borders has gone on for far too long for India’s liking.
Some strategic circles say that the Modi Government may not allow the Chinese the long rope they have had under the Congress regimes in the past. The standard bearers of the right wing nationalism in India have all along held that the Chinese have taken India to be an easy prey and that their marches into our territory need to be stopped immediately. Modi, a right wing nationalist himself, has deprecated the Chinese expansionist designs and its claims on Arunachal and other Indian territories. Now that he constitutes the vanguard of the Indian state, it will be interesting to see what policy choices he chooses to make. One policy option, though, that he does not have is to become the surrogate flag bearer of the Congress’s Nehruvian ideologues.
Congress’s policy vis-à-vis the Chinese has been equivalent of a weak offering unquestioning loyalties to the strong. It has suffered from an uncanny complex that it can’t stand up to the might of the Chinese state. As if it was not enough, it also propelled the Chinese cause when it could have its in the misplaced, but Gandhian hope, that the larger and stronger nation in the region should lead the region. Or else, what explains its forfeiting its opportunity to be a permanent member at the UN in favour of the Chinese?
It has recently come to light that the two areas, equivalent in size to Sikkim or Goa in the north east of India called fish tails, which were erroneously shown in Chinese maps some time in 1960s, continue to be shown as being outside India, despite the fact that these areas have been and continue to be under the Indian occupation. What’s more, these areas are inhabited by a Mishmi tribe, who calls itself Indian. Reports in Sunday Guardian daily reveal that in the year 2013 then PM Manmohan Singh was advised by his aides to correct this error. But the Manmohan Government allegedly disapproved the correction as it felt it would bring an unnecessary attention to a mistake committed under the Nehru regime. Come to think of it, in no other country, the questions of national integrity would have been made subservient to the personal reputation of a leader as in India. But it’s only in India that such ironies can co-exist with the aspirations of its people and unflinching loyalties of its soldiers.
For all the sins of Congress vis-à-vis the Chinese, Modi Government needs to remember that it can’t oscillate to another extreme in a jiffy in a bid make up for the lost ground. The Chinese are adept at reading the messaging. Any sudden policy recalibration would be picked up by them. Already, some subtle signs have been unleashed. Indian foreign minister, Sushma Swaraj on her Vietnam visit has made an attempt to deepen the strategic relation with the latter. The upgradation in the defence ties is being kept under wraps (and rightfully so) even as the news of forward movement in other sectors has been released to the media. Vietnam has renewed the lease in favour of India of the two oil blocks in the South China Sea. South China Sea is a contested territory between China and Vietnam and India’s foray there would surely raise the hackles of the Chinese. Chinese have resisted India’s entry in the South China Sea in the past. In this scenario, when India would want China to get a certain massage, it will be interesting to see how it approaches the issue of oil exploration in the disputed seas.
Of similar importance is Modis’ visit to Japan later this month which has been extended by a day to send out a message to the Chinese. China and Japan are locked in a never ending battle over the ownership of Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese premier is cast in the same nationalist mould as Modi. He is trying to look the Chinese in the eye and is also rewriting the Japanese self defence policy paradigm to bring it on an offensive plane to address the rapidly increasing threats from China. He enjoys a good personal rapport with PM Modi, a throwback to the latter’s years as Gujarat CM. And it is expected that the relationship will be put on an entirely different strategic plane with Japan agreeing to sell a highly modern amphibious plane along with, in a departure from the past, allowing manufacturing of parts of this plane in India. If Abe were to heed to India’s strategic concerns and also offer to forge a relationship aligned on an axis that contains China, it would be the best ever outcome of Indo-Japan engagements in the recent history.
Two things that India, however, must do immediately are: make the correction in its maps to capture the fishtails therein. It does not behove a country of India’s size that it shows its territories outside its official catrograph. Chinese may not have respect for others’ maps, but it should be no consolation for us to remain casual. Who knows when time comes to fix the territorial issue and China agrees to abide by the Macmohan line, as it has done in the case of Burma, our maps may attain a sacrosanct status. In that scenario, if our wrong maps weaken our case, we will have no one else to blame.
Second, before even thinking of engaging the Chinese at the borders, it is important that a semblance of border infrastructure is first put in place. Even though it is a work in progress, it needs to be expedited at a war footing. Similarly, defence needs all along the China border need to be fully met as early as possible. Quick mobilization platforms and well equipped forces, and not the mindless rhetoric, will be the deterrence for the bullying China.
China is a mercurial customer. Even as it does what is does at the borders, it also never ceases to do business with India. Whatever it does, the best part of the Chinese tactic is that they always keep the levers of influence of whatever do with them. India will do well to beat them at their game. India can continue to forge anti china relations with the like-minded nations while at the same time also continuing to do business with it. A policy of strategic stealth and tactical ambush, as opposed to an overt aggression or cold standoff, will best serve the Indians.
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