Rekha Chowdhary
Assembly Elections 2014 have been announced and the state has gone into the mould of elections. There are lot of speculations about the electoral outcome. There also lot of claims. It may be a worthwhile exercise to analyse these speculations and claims. Indian elections always throw lot of surprises and therefore it becomes difficult to make predictions. However, one can refer to the trends as these are appearing at the moment.
The trends as these are emerging clearly show that of the four major parties National Conference, Congress , PDP and BJP, the last two are upbeat. PDP is claiming that it will form the next government on its own, the BJP has pronounced its +44 mission. The fact that these two parties were able to capture all the six Parliamentary seats of the state in the elections held few months earlier explains the confidence that these parties have developed in the recent months. The optimism of BJP which has so far 11 MLAs as the highest number comes from the ‘Modi wave’ that swept the country during the Lok Sabha elections and that seems to be still continuing as reflected during the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls. The fact that Congress was so decimated during the Lok Sabha elections that it could not even reach the numbers required for the official opposition, has certainly made the local BJP hopeful of increasing its numbers substantially within the state. The loss of Congress here is surely going to translate into the benefit of BJP, at least in Jammu region. Already as its vote share during the Parliamentary election has clearly shown, BJP has eroded the electoral space that Congress had been holding. Like Jammu, the BJP is very upbeat about Ladakh. Having captured its first Parliamentary seat from this region, it is specially eying at least three, if not all the four Assembly seats here. The buoyancy of BJP is not confined to Jammu and Ladakh but it is also seeking entry in Kashmir. Undaunted by the perceptions about its Hindu-oriented ideological position, it is showing its confidence about winning few seats in the region, especially in those constituencies with Kashmiri Pundit voters where voter turnout is generally low due to the boycott politics.
Like the BJP in Jammu region, the PDP in Kashmir region is very upbeat. Here one can clearly see the anti-incumbency effect against the NC. A reflection of this effect could be seen during the Parliamentary elections when the party stalwarts including the patron of the party and the Union Minister Farooq Abdullah faced the humiliating defeat. The flood situation in Kashmir has further added to the anti-incumbency factor here. Apart from the personal visibility of the Chief Minister, the government was conspicuous by its absence. The massive anger of people against the NC at the moment, is certainly going to benefit the PDP. The PDP, meanwhile, ambitious of its political future, has sought to reinvent itself from a pro-Kashmir party to the all-state party. In this effort, it has gone beyond seeking its base in the Muslim constituencies of Jammu region, and sought to create a visibility for itself in the Hindu-dominated areas of the region – incorporating in its fold the Jammu leaders like Vikramaditya with his royal lineage and Mangat Ram Sharma, a seasoned politician.
However, which way the electoral wind will blow, will also depend on how situation unfolds in the time to come. Due to the large number of fence-sitters, the electoral strategy adopted by the respective parties becomes important in influencing the electoral outcome. Much would therefore depend on how intensified and aggressive the electoral campaign is going to be. During the Parliamentary elections, for instance, the visit of Modi to the state was to change the very nature of electoral game for the BJP.
Also much would be dependent on the final voter turnout. In this state, and more particularly in Kashmir, the politics of boycott is an important factor and as soon as the elections are announced, the separatists start their campaign for boycott. Boycott certainly intervenes in the political trend. Some political parties tend to lose from the boycott and some others tend to gain. How successful would be the boycott call by the separatist this time, is not very clear at the moment. The last two times when the elections were held, during 2008 Assembly elections and during the 2011 Panchayat elections, the Kashmiris had ignored the call. The post- flood situation is another factor which might affect the voter turnout in Kashmir. Added to this is the factor of militant violence. As the experience of elections in the state clearly shows, as the electoral process starts, the targeted militant attacks are also intensified resulting in the lowering of the votes. The border situation is another factor that might impact the electoral process. The volatility of the borders both in the LoC as well as in the IB in the recent months has affected the normal lives of people and if there is intensification of border tensions, it might intervene in the electoral process.
However, on the whole, it is going to be an interesting election. Besides the four major parties, there are other significant actors whose performance needs to be watched – for instance, the Panthers Party in Jammu region; the People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone in Kashmir; as well as few individuals like Tarigami of CPM and Engineer Rashid whose performance may impact the electoral outcome. What would also be interesting to watch as to what strategies are going to be adopted by different parties; what would be the nature of political debate and what would be the major issues. Next few weeks therefore are going to be very exciting as the grand democratic game is going to unfold.
(The views of the author are personal)
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