Anil Anand
The favourite template of the political parties running across Kashmir to Kanyakumari these days is development. Neither Jammu and Kashmir nor the poll bound Bihar is an exception to this flavour of the day. This is another matter that actual discourse of particularly the ruling dispensations is heavily loaded with caste, religion and in the case of J&K regional (also) barbs.
There are two theatres at work presently; Jammu and Kashmir which is beset with the communal and regional divide, the handiwork of the two ideologically diametrically opposite ruling allies Peoples Democratic Party and BJP and the Assembly election bound Bihar where development has ended up becoming a mask even as the state is readying for the first of five phased elections. Both the states are significant at this juncture though for different reasons. J&K remains to be the perennially trouble-spot with international dimensions while Bihar, as has always been, sets the political agenda for future.
The states present a role model of what the political parties actually stand for which has certainly nothing to do with either the developmental agenda or public welfare. The quick electoral gains theory is as strong in the 21st century as it was seven decades back with the development moving at its own pace. BJP-PDP joined hands to bridge the regional gaps through all round development but have ended up broadening gulf and the resultant tensions.
The run up to elections in Bihar is not presenting a rosy picture either despite the rival political groupings heavily selling their so called developmental agenda. It is barely a theme of public speeches being made by leaders beginning with Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and his second-in-command Mr Amit Shah on one hand and their arch political rival chief minister Mr Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav on the other side. Under the cover of development a massive engineering in the name of caste and religion has taken place causing more dissensions in the society which is causing visibly social dissensions and tension.
The two recent developments amply reflect the importance of Bihar elections and the dire need to emerge victorious at all costs. Mr Modi has decided to address more election rallies and BJP chief Mr Shah opting to camp in Patna with twin purposes of galvanising the party’s campaign and at the same time keep an eye on the BJP’s internal cross-contradictions lest it causes harm.
The Lalu-Nitish combine are acting differently but the urgency is the same for them. That is to register a victory by hook or crook. They have their own model of development as against the BJP-led NDA. But both sides are furiously engaged in sewing religion and caste based agendas to ensure that as many caste and religion groups come to their fold before the polling day.
Notwithstanding the financial package for Bihar announced by Prime Minister Mr Modi with fanfare and grandstanding on the issue in every election rally, the focus is somewhere else. His painstaking effort in explaining the package details to the people is overshadowed every now and then by his reflection on beef controversy with reference to Yaduvansh ( Yadav clan) to have a dig at Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and references to dalit, backwards and ‘ati pichada jattis’. This clearly shows as to where the priorities stand vis-a-vis Mr Modi’s carefully cultivated image of a ‘vikar purush’.
There is no denying the fact that stakes are very high for the Modi- Amit Shah due who till know had a dream run, barring Delhi poll loss, in putting the BJP firmly on the national map. A victory in Bihar is crucial if this dream run is to be continued. A minor glitch and Mr Modi’s magic will be questioned more by the party insiders than others. Such a situation of loss will likely to have more serious ramifications for Mr Shah as it could jeopardise his stake to have a second and full-fledged innings as the party president as currently he is completing the term of his predecessor Mr Rajnath Singh after his elevation as Home Minister.
Mr Shah is a great drawing board player. In his scheme of things the “Battle of Bihar”- 2015, as he refers to the Assembly elections, is crucial and would decide the contours of national politics for the next 15 years. Visibly in the two BJP leaders scheme of things the dividend of the developmental agenda cannot accrue electoral benefits in a shorts-pan. The political expediency has started playing its role in terms of caste and religion combos.
As Delhi debacle came shortly after the convincing Lok Sabha victory, Mr Shah survived in view of strong backing from Mr Modi. The BJP chief seems to be fully aware of the fact that another defeat and his position would become untenable and dissenting voices from within the party will become louder.
At stake is the Modi-magic which catapulted BJP to the status of securing clear majority on its own in the last Lok Sabha elections followed by formation of Governments in Maharashtra and the only Muslim majority state of Jammu and Kashmir. The victory in Bihar is must if the magic is to stay as a loss would provide a counter argument to the opponents, both inside and outside BJP, and cause difficulties for the BJP in coming elections to important states such as Assam, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
So it has become imperative for them to disturb the caste calculations of the rival ‘Mahagathbandhan’ comprising of JD-u- RJD-Congress combine to defeat them at their own game. The BJP realises that the only way to beat a united opposition is to split the caste alliance through weaning away some of Lalu-Nitish combines caste groups and adding some new in the form of allies Jeetan Ram Majhi who represents ‘ati backward’ classes.
The BJP’s campaign is a solo Modi act with the party chief providing the backdoor support. A win would not only further strengthen him but also silence his political critics and a loss would provide fresh ammunition to them to hit back at him. The fact that in Lok Sabha elections the BJP’s voting share was seven per cent less than the combine share of RJD-JD(U)-Congress groupings has led to Mr Modi further pressing the accelerator.
Similar compulsions have weighed heavily on the minds of both Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mr Nitish Kumar that forced them to come together. The two disciples of Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narain had been in the opposite camps for the past over two decades but same political expediency has forced them to join hands. They realised that Mr Modi could be fought back effectively only through a formidable caste and religion combinations and that is what they have done currently.
So that brings one back to the agenda of development lost somewhere in the maze of castiest and communal politics. There is one silver-lining that is whichever combination wins Bihar polls the leaders will credit this to their respective developmental agenda—Mr Nitish Kumar as Bihar CM and Mr Modi with his 15-months as the PM.
feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
Follow our WhatsApp channel