Anil Anand
The uncertainty still looms large over Government formation in Jammu and Kashmir with Peoples Democratic Party president and chief minister in-waiting Mehbooba Mufti still firming up her ideas on how to renew her alliance with the BJP. Or whether at all continue with it.
The questions are already being asked if the basic principles on which the BJP-PDP alliance was based, were really adhered to and delivered any tangible results. One key argument offered both by former chief minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and BJP strategists in justification of the alliance between diametrically opposite ideologies was about the theory of reconciliation. Reconciliation between Centre and the state, reconciliation between Jammu and Kashmir, the two main regions of the state, and most importantly reconciliation on the issue of internally displaced Kashmiri Pandit community.
There is no denying the fact that the theory of reconciliation has fallen flat on its face and robbed the partners in alliance of a fanciful argument that they offered to convince friends and critics alike of the need to come together. Fact of the matter is that this multi-pronged issue has turned out to be the worst casualty. Efforts on this front could have provided much needed strength to the fledgling alliance but the vested interests perhaps had different ideas.
It is in this backdrop of an absolute segregation at all levels that Mehbooba Mufti is struggling to come to terms with herself both on account of her father’s sad demise and to the possible reality of aligning with the BJP once again. By all accounts she is facing the worst dilemma of her short political life but longer experience of being member of a front-ranking political family.
With the Mufti senior’s theory of reconciliation blown to smithereens more by the senior partner BJP than his own doing his illustrious daughter is clearly functioning in a vacuum. The vacuum has become further dreadful for her with the thought of having to sit again with someone, with whom PDP shares nothing in common, haunting her every moment.
There are no easy ways out of this dilemma for Mehbooba Mufti which has been further compounded by sudden collapse of support in the PDP citadel of South Kashmir. It had been visible during the burial and subsequent mourning period of her father. Ostensibly, she proved to be shrewd enough to postpone her elevation as the first woman chief minister of the state in company with the BJP. The writing was on the wall that she was not in the right company. This is another matter that one of the foremost options for under the circumstances is to carry on with the alliance.
At this juncture it seems difficult if not impossible for her to part ways with the BJP despite her numerous complaints against the party leadership headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the absence of public support in Kashmir valley walking out of the alliance would not be a wise move. Going by Mufti Sayeed’s utmost faith in the dictum that “time is a great healer”, which he often stated in the midst of his uncomfortable alliance with the BJP, Mehbooba Mufti does not have this luxury as time is fast ticking for her and eagles in the form of arch rivals ready to pounce.
She cannot wait till eternity for the time to heal itself. Without public support and BJP in kowtow the better option for her is to become chief minister and let the time heal itself. Remaining out of power under such circumstances and at this juncture can push her into political oblivion and compound problems. Going to the people as the rebel PDP MP Tariq Hamid Karra has suggested, will need great courage on her part.
Either way the options are not too easy for her.
On the contrary what fascinates most under the circumstances is the total lackadaisical attitude of the BJP towards its eroding base in Jammu region. This has happened by the same dimensions as the PDP is facing situation in Kashmir valley. Nevertheless the BJP high command has no qualms in continuing with the alliance. Unlike Mehbooba Mufti the BJP leadership seems keener on continuing with the power sharing arrangement than showing any inclination at addressing the concerns of the party’s support base.
Although the BJP leadership never provided a comfort zone to Mufti Sayeed despite his courageous decision to side with the saffron party, the eagerness of the party to continue partnering with the PDP seems to have some meaning if not a plan. Already decimated, out of power BJP, with 25 MLAs, will not be in a position to either keep itself politically relevant or face elections. In the event of an alternative alliance forming, the party will also be hard-pressed to keep the flock of legislators together.
Under such circumstances the direct fallout will be on the larger than life image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the absence of any leadership of any consequence the BJP has not much to lose locally. From claiming credit to have formed government in the only Muslim majority state of the country as depiction of the BJP’s wider acceptance, to letting the alliance go, it will not be the best of situations for the party.
That is why a blank cheque from BJP leadership to Mehbooba Mufti. Whether she encashes the cheque or allows it to expire the BJP has nothing else to do but wait for her decision. The longer the wait, for both sides, the greater is the risk.
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