Harsha Kakar
The drone strike by the US which killed the Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansour has been widely discussed as a harbinger to change in many ways. Firstly, it indicateda change in US policy towards Pakistan. Stopping the sale of F-16 aircraft to Pakistan as part of US military aid and laying down conditions for all other aid based on visible action against terrorist groups was the first step. This attack in an area not addressed before (Baluchistan and not the standard Khyber- Pakhtunwa region) and supporting the same in clear terms, without mincing words, indicated the US frustration on Pakistan’s actions to curb terrorist groups, as also its willingness to expand area of operations for targeting the Taliban. Secondly, instead of supporting the killing of a terrorist group leader, Pakistan objected to this action as a violation of its sovereignty. Thirdly, it proved that the Pakistan military continues to provide support to the Afghan Taliban, while it acts with vengeance against the Pakistan Taliban and the Baluch freedom movement. Finally, it signalled a change in the Taliban leadership, thus raising the question of what the impact would be on the future of Afghanistan.
The strike projectedan end to NATO’s patience on Pakistan’s efforts to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. The patience is likely to be thinner when the next US President assumes power in early 2017. The depth of frustration was visible when the Afghan President threatened to take Pakistan to the UN Security Council and NATO was compelled to extend its mission. The present US actions havepushed Pakistan into China’s camp and hence it may not deliver further. It would still continue to shelter and support the Taliban leadership, simply because without Taliban support, it can never consider Afghanistan as its backyard nor restrict growing Indian and Iranian influence.
The surprise by which the Taliban announced the replacement indicated that it was avoiding re-creating the violent struggle for power, post the death of Mullah Omar. There were also rumours that other senior contenders were unwilling to participate. The selection of Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, a religious scholar and a founder member of the Taliban could also have been done to prevent turmoil especially in the midst of its latest offensive and rumours of breakaway factions coming to the fore. His non-military and religious background may enable him to bring in cohesiveness to the group. It goes without saying, that the ISI would definitely have had a hand in his succession, after all he would be based in Pakistan and support would flow from them.
The present leader is not a military person, hence operations would continue to be controlled by the Haqqani leadership, much to the chagrin of the US and its allies. However, the strike would compel the leadership to further restrict their movement and means of communication. This could have an effect on the pace and coordination of operations.
Considering the present scenario in Afghanistan, where the Taliban controls large parts of Helmand and Kunduz province, it is unlikely to come to the negotiating table easily. The area it controls, permits it to gain financially through the production and sale of opium, which would logically be flowing through Karachi, thus benefitting the Pakistani security establishment. Further, it would also be aware of the forthcoming change in the Presidential seat of the US, where there could be a reduction in deployment within Afghanistan, which would only benefit them. Even agreeing to peace talks, would imply being forced to slow down operations, as talks linger on. With a large majority of the top leadership being against talks, it is unlikely that the present Taliban chief would be in any position to agree for talks at the moment. Serious efforts at peace can only flow, when pressure is applied on Pakistan, which in turn can compel the Taliban.
While India and Iran are against the participation of the Taliban in any futuristic unity government in Afghanistan, China, Russia and other nations of the region could have a different perspective. The increasing threat and expansion of the Islamic State (IS) and national interests could cloud their judgement. For Russia and the Central Asian Republics, the IS is a greater threat than the Taliban, hence they would accept the Taliban, as long as it battles the IS. For China, whose Uyghur militants are part of the Taliban, China would always be willing to provide financial and material support, as long as the Taliban denies them a re-entry to Xinjiang and prevents fresh volunteers from joining. This is where Pakistan is expected to deliver.
For Afghanistan, in the present context, it would be business as usual. The attack on the bus carrying court employees, in Kabul, immediately on the pronouncement of the new Taliban chief was an indicator of their intentions. For the US, choices are restricted. They could further pressurize Pakistan to force Taliban to the negotiating table by blocking all aid, as also spares for weapons and equipment already provided. This could push Pakistan deeper into the Chinese camp. However, unless Pakistan delivers what China desires, it may not gain much. After all, in international relations, there are no free lunches. Secondly, employ forces to restrict Taliban to limited areas, while strengthening the Afghan militia in other areas. This again may not give the desired results, as the areas now controlled are financially ideal for permitting Taliban expansion due to income from drug trade. Thirdly, is to keep targeting the Taliban leadership, till it results in a power struggle and the creation of smaller breakaway organizations, which could then be dealt with in piecemeal. Finally, for the region, the spread of the Islamic State (IS) is a greater threat than the Taliban. Hence nations could contemplate letting Taliban remain in a small area, while enabling it to counter the IS, who it considers its worst enemy, thus preventing its spread.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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