Kalyani Shankar
Troubles come in a row, never singly. The Congress has just realized the meaning of this adage for it is facing one crisis after the other. After successfully diverting the attention from Coalgate to Foreign Direct Investment in multi-brand retail, the party managers thought they had a reprieve, but the India Against Corruption (IAC) leader Arvind Kejriwal has become the new headache for the party.
The Congress could shrug off the other scams like the 2G pretending it involved the allies. When Coalgate hit the party, it distanced itself from Congress M.P. Darda and minister Subodh Kant Sahay’s kin, allowing them to defend themselves. But now that Kejriwal has taken the attacks to the doors of 10 Janpath targeting Sonia Gandhi’s son-in-law Robert Vadra, the Congress is well aware that it is the high command herself who is under attack. After its kneejerk reaction of fielding top ministers to defend Vadra, the party has now resigned itself to let Vadra defend himself. The party has also left it to the Haryana Government to explain the situation under which the DLF was given the land. The UPA allies, like Sharad Pawar of the NCP and Lalu Yadav of the RJD, have also come to the rescue of the Congress.
But the bigger headache is the survival of the UPA Government and the continuous threats from the two regional satraps – the SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and the BSP supremo Mayawati – who have been keeping the Congress under tenterhooks, threatening to review their support to the UPA. The Congress should worry because already the foundation is shaking after the exit of the Trinamool Congress from the UPA, followed by the two members of JMM.
The SP-BSP threats have come at a time when the Prime Minister is planning to go ahead with his reform package. The cabinet has recently cleared proposals raising the cap on FDI in Insurance from 26 percent to 49 percent and allowing upto 26 percent in Pension sector. Then, there is also the food security bill. The Government intends to bring these controversial bills in the next Parliament session. All these need the legislative sanction. The government needs every vote of the UPA allies, and if the BSP (2) or the SP (22) or both decide to pull out support, the government would become a minority. Both the SP and the BSP are talking of early polls. The Congress thus has to do a fine balancing act – a tough job for floor managers.
Mayawati’s huge rally on Tuesday sent several signals. First of all, this was the first show of strength after her party’s humiliating defeat in May. She had been lying low for the past three months and is now trying to surface once again.
Secondly, Mayawati knows that the Akhilesh Yadav Government is still in its honeymoon period and there will not be much response for her criticism that he has not done anything to fulfill the election promises.
Thirdly, she has sounded the election bugle by predicting that the next elections may come sooner than expected and gave a pep talk to her flock to be ready to face it. She wants to arrest any demoralizing effect of her party’s defeat in the Assembly polls.
Fourthly, Mayawati has sent a signal that the BSP has the power to pull down the UPA government, although the BSP has not yet recovered from its defeat. Mayawati needs more time to face polls. Interestingly, on the same day Mayawati held her huge rally, three months after quashing the FIR against Mayawati’s disproportionate assets case, Supreme Court said that its ruling would not hinder the CBI from probing the case. This would make her dependence on the UPA more substantial.
Above all, Mayawati cannot leave the political space to SP because the BSP would have to face a hostile Government in the state as well as the centre. Hence, she has declared that if the FDI brought benefits to the farmers she may not pull out, thus keeping a door open.
On the other hand, the SP chief Mulayam Singh would rather like to have early polls because things are going well for his party. He would like his son Akhilesh Yadav to settle down first and also to show some results by getting a financial package from the Centre for UP. Mulayam would pull out at his own pace and timing when it would be to his advantage. But Mulayam has been sending confusing signals by holding hands with the Left for formation of the third front, posing pictures with the firebrand West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee (who is talking of forming a federal front) and, yet, at the same time, also continuing to support the UPA.
Both the regional satraps are playing their cards carefully. The UPA may be stable as of now even though two allies have left the front. While the TMC has sent the letter of withdrawal to the President, Marandi is yet to send his letter. The Government would collapse only if the SP and BSP, or one of them plus the DMK, withdraws support. The regional satraps are playing a cat and mouse game. So both keep tabs of each other and will pull out more or less at the same time, when it is to their own advantage. The DMK, too, is sending conflicting signals of its annoyance with the Congress but continue in the front for its own political compulsions.
All the government’s grand plans of bringing in more reforms would be dashed if the political stability comes into question. As a senior Congress leader puts it, troubled times are ahead unless things are handled with finesse. It is for the Congress to keep the allies together even at a huge cost and it will. The allies, too, would tow the Congress lines for political compulsions. (IPA)
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