BD Sharma
A lot of churning is taking place in the Pakistani establishment these days. The Pak army seems to have grown sick of its rendezvous with fundamentalism and terrorism. Some new signals are emanating from the barracks of Pindi, the fulcrum of the power structure there. The new thinking is, obviously being watched keenly in India also. In order to bring the country out from the economic quagmire, political anarchy, religious chauvinism and international isolation, the army seems to have taken the command in its hands. The army chief has come out with a new doctrine being touted as ‘Bajwa Doctrine’ which, among other things, envisages good relations with her neighbours. The armed forces have also developed friendship with judiciary and using it prudently to twist the power balance in their favour. The country which is mad after Cricket, is witnessing its return to Karachi after its long sojourn to the Gulf Sultanates. Economic transformation is being visualized with the expected flow of Yuans through the Economic Corridor. Disruption of financial aid from America is also being deeply introspected and a way is being searched to bring the Americans on the track of benevolence again.
It is not for the first time that the transformational changes are being contemplated in Pakistan. She has often been a cradle of new thinking. After all, this is the land where the human mind had grappled with the earthly as well as the heavenly problems since the days of the Vedas. The new ideas were, however, misdirected there and brought degradation instead of betterment of her people after independence. Jinnah got the country by nurturing hate between the two communities but he understood his folly early so at the time of independence, he came out with his famous speech declaring that Pakistan shall be a home for all the religious groups with equal rights. Though the speech was kept in wraps by the bigoted chief secretary of the time and his cohorts till it came in the public domain in the late fifties yet the spirit of the speech continued to inspire many intellectuals and haunt the communalists for many years there.
Again, in order to ensure that the two nations theory may not go to tatters, the ruling elite came out with the infamous Objectives Resolution to keep the strangle of religion over the power structure. A tug of war also ensued amongst the fundamentalists and in the process Liaqat Ali, a man of some substance after Jinnah, met with a violent death. Upsurge against the Ahmedia community started soon thereafter and the hapless community witnessed an orgy of violence. The situation continued to slip out of hand and the armed forces found it opportune to wrest power from the civilian authorities. After some years, the army was taken for a ride by the devilish foreign minister Bhutto and Pakistan was thrown in the cauldron of war with India in the name of liberating Kashmir. The then army chief with all his medals and the garbs of President came out with a bloodied nose and lost both power and prestige in the process. The elections were held to remedy the situation but the remedy aggravated the malady and the country got divided in two parts. Division of the country helped in fulfilling the long cherished dream of Bhutto to become the head of state. Though modern in outlook, he could not resist the pressure of fundamentalists and declared the Ahmedis as non-Muslims. He did also hasten his end when he crafted election rigging. Zia-Ul-Haq did not snatch the power only but also the life of his mentor Bhutto. In order to perpetuate in power, he decided to ride on the back of fundamentalists. Invasion of Russia on Afghanistan and the American involvement in it came as a boon to Hunchback general to propagate his agenda. He helped America in ousting the Russians and got a bonus in the form of trained Jihadis and a big cache of stolen weapons. The bigoted general injected such a virulent dose of fundamentalism in different spheres of life in Pakistan that she became a hub of terrorism in the world. America’s operation of ‘mousing ou’t Osama bin Laden from Afghanistan after 9/11 and Pakistan’s cooperation in these operations ensured liberal American assistance to her. The arms and dollars from America were secretly diverted to the terrorists to bleed India and promote terrorism in rest of the world. The hide and seek game could not be played much longer and America started to hold her responsible for America’s problem in Afghanistan. American aid started to dwindle.
It added fuel to the already deteriorating economic situation. The Jihadis also started to show their teeth so boldly that a few hundred of them were able to bring life out of gear in Islamabad some months back. A lot of noise was being made by the generals for more and more funds for the bloated army but the same was not possible from an economy on the precipice. Differences with the civilian Govt. consequently came into the fore.
Instead of taking the power directly in their hands, the army thought it prudent to throw the unpliable Nawaz Sharif out through the judiciary and have a puppet civilian Govt. instead.
On coming into the forefront the realities of the pangs of American squeeze of aid, the scarcity of resources for the bloated army, declining trade particularly exports, strained relations with even Islamic countries, increasing pressure of dismantling terrorist infrastructure, assertive govt. in India, abnormal decline in the rupee, depletion of foreign exchange, inability to strike the fundamentalists for fear of retaliation by their large number of sympathisers, hot borders with India Afghanistan and Iran, continuous deployment of forces to tackle Baloch and Pakhtun insurgency and a plethora of other problems started looking the generals in the face. So the army became desperate to frame a policy to bring the country out of this hopeless situation.
As a result, we are hearing about the new credo, termed as ‘Bajwa Doctrine’ by which the army chief is being credited with not only drafting a grand vision of economy of the country but also a transformation of its foreign policy. No doubt, Army chief has enjoyed the supreme power for many decades but it is for the first time that he is behaving head and shoulder above his predecessors. His first and foremost concern looks to be setting right the economic mismanagement in his country and the rectification of lopsided priorities. The improvement in the situation of foreign exchange reserves which is at the critical level of 12.2 billion Dollars sufficing about two months imports is another concern. Arresting of the downward spin of rupee with its hovering around 110 against Dollar is another worry. The hope of economic resurgence with Chinese largesse through the coming into reality the Economic Corridor looks to be far-fetched. Voices are already being raised against loans from China, sometimes at as much higher rate of interest as 8-10 percent. It is being sarcastically highlighted that, in contrast, the ‘Indian Banias’ have managed loan from Japan at 0.5 per cent for their Bullet-Train. It remains to be seen how the hopeless situation is retrieved.
The second pillar of the doctrine concerns the political reforms particularly the one targeting the 18th amendment of the constitution granting some autonomy to the provinces. Autonomy to the provinces is seen to be blocking the smooth development and enforcement of security measures smoothly. It is being alleged that the States are not discharging their responsibilities efficiently. Some commentators fear that this is being contemplated to clip the wings of provincial leaders particularly the Sharif family in Punjab after Nawaz Sharif has been shown the door. The erosion of powers of the provinces shall tell adversely upon the already boiling situation in the sensitive provinces of Balochistan and Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa.
The political commentators opine that the abrogation of the amendment can prove disastrous. The talk of bringing the extreme elements to the mainstream politics may also prove to be playing with the fire.
The other arena of the Doctrine is of vital interest to us because it speaks for improving its relations with her neighbours. It is a welcome step for us in India particularly the people of our State because we are suffering a lot since long due to the Pak-induced militancy. Our people living in the border areas have also suffered huge human and property loss. The General has achieved some success in improvement of relationship with Afghanistan recently when he bade good bye to the normal diplomatic channels and took it upon himself to talk to the Afghan President with some fruitful outcome. But it should also be borne in mind that the contours of relationship with neighbours have for long been determined by the army in Pakistan and they are not going to make much difference so soon simply because of its incorporation in a Doctrine. The country has lost much of credibility because of its role in spreading the fire of terrorism in her neighbourhood. So the neighbours will take her assurances with a grain of salt. There was a time when her borders with Afghanistan and Iran used to be a zone of piece. But the relations with the fellow Muslim nations started to take a nosedive for much of her fault. The Indian Prime Minister made sincere efforts to improve relations by inviting Pak PM on his oath-taking ceremony and later on by his sudden dash to Lahore but peace was not given a trial. The Pak army is the culprit to be singled out. In the light of this background, Pakistan has to come forward with positive intentions and some concrete actions to have fruitful results.
With such a plethora of contradictions in all the shades of the Doctrine, one has to tread cautiously to believe in its efficacy. We should still be hopeful that this Doctrine sets in motion an improvement in our relations with Pakistan. The circumstances leading to the emergence of this line of thinking in Pakistan teach us some lessons also. The people, who look fervently towards Pakistan for help, must look at the helplessness and abyss in which Pakistan has been stuck. It may not be easy for her to pursue the dream of Kashmir any more. The assertion of some people that China will take in hand the Kashmir operations along with Pak is also a subterfuge. China has emerged as a nation of shopkeepers and it cannot treat roughshod a nation which is importing goods worth more than 80 billion dollars from her every year. With trade problems with Trump, she has already started courting India. So our misguided friends should awaken to the new realities and come forward for talks with Govt. of India so that normalcy is brought to the long suffering State. Simultaneously, the eagerness to implement the new doctrine by Pakistan should be positively responded by us. Any move from across the border should be welcomed by India with open arms for durable peace in the sub-continent.
( The author is a former civil servant)
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