Harsha Kakar
The battle to contain the Coronavirus is being fought on a global scale, almost each nation in isolation. Initially, it was China which was affected but laxity, secrecy and desperation to protect its regime, led to the virus spreading across the globe. The spread is such that there is neither enough data on the virus nor examples of successful containment, which could be considered as a guide by nations while planning a strategy to contain it. Each nation stumbled in the dark, moving from option to option, hoping to stem the tide of infected cases.
In any war, famine, natural calamity or even an economic recession, governments can plan based on known end states; capabilities of their forces, availability of reserves to feed population or provide a boost to the economy. This is not the case with the Coronavirus, where there are only examples of failure of strategies, loss of lives because states failed to act in time, and resultant economic meltdowns. Previous epidemics cannot be taken as a guide as none have had such a global impact in recent times.
China keeps claiming its expertise on controlling the virus, as it was the first impacted and could subdue it, a claim which the globe rejects, as Chinese data and inputs on the virus were inaccurate and incomplete. Further the Chinese model of lockdown, is not an approach which any democracy can replicate. Thus, nations had to adopt their own strategies based on suggestions from internal experts in multiple fields and the cumulative decision of the national leadership.
Nations reacted to the spread rather than being proactive to contain it.They failed and casualties continued to rise. In some instances, the US being a prime example, the national leadership preferred economy to human lives and only began acting when casualties commenced mounting. Americans will pay a heavy cost in innocent lives because of the leadership’s wrong approach.
Nations which acted late have also paid a heavy price, Italy, UK and Spain being prime examples. Population in western nations initially shunned orders to self-isolate and adopt social distancing, until forced by the state, a decision which came rather late.
Impact on nations which refused to implement forced shutdowns due to internal poverty, Pakistan being a prime example, remains to be seen. Similarly, nations with poor economies, rudimentary health care and lack of testing facilities,as in Africa, would also witness a hike, inputs of which would flow later.
For any national leadership, care of its citizens is a priority. However, for care,a robust economy is essential. Shutting down the economy, banking on reserves while adopting a medical first strategy for a prolonged duration can be damaging. Simultaneous, could be the reverse approach, letting the economy remain open, issuing advisories, hoping the virus would be contained, while economic growth would continue. Another could be a midway option. Finally, would be the Chinese option of enforced shutdowns, to the extent of sealing people indoors to break the spread of the virus.
These and many more modified strategies have been attempted, none individually have succeeded. Inputs on how the virus behaves in conditions of different temperatures and impact on nations where there is natural enhanced resistance within the population are also doing the rounds.
The Indian government faced a similar dilemma. It had to adopt a strategy, which in its opinion, after consultations with experts, was the best for the nation. It also needed time to enhance its medical infrastructure in case the strategy failed. The intention was to flatten the spread of the virus or slow it down. The current approach adopted by India is based on inputs from the nation’s own experts.
Another major decision was whether to announce a lockdown immediately or give time to stock essentials. Giving time would have meant a spurt of movement including inter-city travel, making the lockdown ineffective, even before it commenced.
We Indians are amongst the most undisciplined, as was evident on national reaction to the two announcements made by the PM, cheering for those on the frontlines on 22 Mar and lighting candles last weekend. Hence, the lockdown had to be immediate and enforced with the authority of the state.
Simultaneous to this was controlling the spread of the virus within known clusters. The experts considered social distancing to be the solution. Was this the right approach, did India act in time or was it too early or late, remains to be seen. However, a decision was taken and implemented.
Two major events have upset the entire exercise. The first was the unplanned move of migrant labour from cities back to their homes in rural areas. It almost broke the Government’s plans but subsequently states acted in unison, set up camps, housed those on the move and stemmed the flow. Villages where information on the damaging impact of the virus had been well received, acted in sync and isolated those who had arrived, reducing the impact to some extent.
The second was the congregation of followers of the Tablighi Jamaat, a religious sect, which met in Delhi around the same time and dispersed across the nation. Information revealed that the congregation was the hotbed for the spread and states are still working overtime to locate and test those who attended. In addition is isolating those who met the attendees. Resistance to being tested and misbehaviour under quarantine has added to problems. Would it be contained or lead to another national spike is yet to be assessed.
Pressure continues to mount on the government to reopen the manufacturing sector to boost the economy. Industrialists have opined that delay in opening the manufacturing sector could result in loss of markets to China. This could add to economic woes in the days ahead.
No national strategy can succeed without the cooperation of the national public. Simultaneously, can the public, starved of funds, uncertain of their own future, accept a closure of income, despite all government promises. The tendency of a section of the public to disobey government directives on religious grounds,is a global phenomenon and should be dealt with forcefully.
Finally, are questions whose answers would be determined with time. Was the Indian strategy correct and did it give the Government much-needed space to enhance its medical facilities in case it failed? How much has been the impact on the economy? If India contains the spread and economically rebounds back, it could emerge as a global leader.
While answers would flow with time, we as Indians must trust our leadership and support their decision. This is the minimum we can do.
(The author is Major General (Retd)
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