S. Sethuraman
There are now three national-level players for the Battle of 2014, the third one a fledgling upstart – AAP -a novelty on the political scene, building on its unexpected electoral triumph in Delhi to aspire for power at the Centre. It is still in experimental stage, notwithstanding the instant response it has evoked among professionals and the young in a climate of rising expectations for a new era of politics.
It is still not clear what form AAP will take at the all-India level and whether it can come out with an organisational charter, its objectives, political, economic and social, and the work programme it can offer to the electorate for the next five years. So far, it is operating with a small inner circle with Mr Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi Chief Minister, as the supreme leader.
There is no doubt, in whatever ways it reorganises itself and gets into battling established national or regional parties, it could certainly win some Lok Sabha seats but more importantly, it could likely cut into the votes of leading candidates in several places and influence outcomes in those constituencies to their detriment.
Both the Congress and BJP, being led into the battle by relatively younger, charismatic Mr Rahul Gandhi and the presumed go-getter Gujarat Chief Miniser and BJP’s Prime Ministerial Candidate Mr Narendra Modi, respectively, will be crossing swords in the weeks ahead with their own claims and counter-claims.
Mr Modi, a self-proclaimed candidate for the highest office and later endorsed by his party as the Prime Ministerial candidate, has already extensively toured the country and positioned himself to take on the Congress challenge. His campaign thus far had been one of attacking the Congress-led Government and degrading the Prime Minister and other leaders on a personal level. Yet, he is credited with having brought about huge swings in favour of BJP across the states.
The outcomes of the high-powered Congress and BJP meetings in New Delhi on January 17-19 hardly make for instant appeal, the former defending accomplishments in its ten-year hold on power while the latter fully exploiting its offensive capabilities having been forced to sit in opposition for ten long years. The Congress rightly decided that this was not the time or in keeping with tradition to designate Mr Rajiv Gandhi as Prime Minister-designate. The winning party has to elect its leader for forming the Government.
Predictably, Mr Modi and BJP views the Congress move as admission or recognition of the party’s “imminent defeat” in the elections. BJP and Mr Modi have heavily relied on slanderous attacks on UPA’s record of governance, apart from casting slur on the reputation of its top leaders. “The misrule, mismanagement, stinking corruption and culpable indifference of the Congress led UPA Government has left India in a situation where the people only suffer and feel insecure. In 2014, Indians await change with hope and excitement” says the BJP political resolution.
The BJP notes with satisfaction the passage of the Lokpal Bill from both houses of Parliament for which, it claims, it had taken “great initiative and made consistent efforts”. The Congress Government sought to delay it on one pretext or other but it is a matter of assurance that the collective concern in the country on massive corruption of the Congress led Government, led to Lokpal institution now becoming a reality.
For its part, the Congress has sharpened its counter-attacks on BJP by pinpointing that “the structures of democracy” cannot be handed to “one single person (Mr Modi) or that they be viciously destroyed”. But Mr Gandhi realises the Congress has arrived at a “turning point” where “packaging and selling policies” would not be giving a “fair deal” to the people based on their choice.
The Congress realises it cannot follow the trodden path and, in the wake of the severe drubbing in state elections, is only half-confident that it could make headway on its own intrinsic strength and on the basis of its own performance record which does not resonate in the country. It is indeed a “turning point” in that the economy is in shambles and growth has to be rerailed and its processes have to become more equity-based with stable prices and deliverable benefits in terms of jobs, social development and human welfare, leading toward a marked and decisive reduction in poverty.
The Congress is yet to come out with its election manifesto but what it would seek to do is well-known – promising better and more effective governance (on existing policies), control over prices and corruption-free administration. The BJP is equally vague on its economic programme and its resolution dwells more on the failures of the Congress regime than offering credible alternatives. It has talked of “holistic” growth, full employment, freedom from rising prices and rooting out corruption.
In short, what the BJP calls for is a “real dose of political leadership to put the derailed economy back on track”. However, Mr Modi has come out in his speech at the BJP session on what he calls “Brand India” based on talent, tradition, tourism, trade and technology. But he has no immediate or short-term solutions ready on offer. His agenda talks of a mechanism to monitor real-time growth of crops and institution of a price stabilisation fund. The only deterrent on promise is special courts to try black marketeers and hoarders.
There is nothing novel in what he has proposed on infrastructure, education or health. Yet, the business and corporate sectors where Mr Modi has already been well-received will applaud his “boldness” on infrastructure, such as building “100 cities”. No Government in India, of any hue, can ignore the fast-growing urban sector and UPA’s dedicated freight corridors, work on which has begun, would be no less inclusive of the new clusters as they develop.
Still, it has to be conceded that there is more high-sounding rhetoric in Mr Rahul Gandhi’s utterances than clear lines of programmes of action – of responding to aspirations of youth and becoming vehicles of unstoppable change. One would have to wait and see if the Congress has a credible platform for the next five years which could command a national appeal.
Economic growth, however critical to nation’s progress, does not commend itself to the mass of voters as would holding the price line, providing quality education and health care, and rural infrastructure. Here is where Mr Modi seems to be scoring well with his repeated claims on arresting inflation, focussing on infrastructure development and widening state’s discretionary powers. .
There may be many developments in the three months ahead which could have a bearing on the election campaigns of parties. For the present, the Congress looks isolated in many states where it could easily work out alliances in the earlier elections. On the other hand, BJP seems to have become more receptive to some of the state outfits as in Tamil Nadu. The regional majors ruling the states seem determined to fight alone and apparently hope to dominate the post-election scene at the Centre. (IPA)
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