Ramesh Pandita
Verdict of Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly election has proved more as cherry on the cake for BJP, given the party’s historic win in 2014 general elections, and the party has once again given a good reason to political pundits to debate the existence & end of the coalition politics. BJP has once again silenced its critics, who on the basis of recent by-polls held in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh assemblies had questioned the existence of any Modi euphoria, in which BJP failed to perform on the expected lines. Opposition parties, even termed the Modi & party wave as short lived, but this merrymaking of opposing parties will itself turn out so short lived, was not even in the wildest imaginations of these critics.
In Haryana, BJP will be making its debut, as for the first time in the history of Haryana politics, BJP has emerged as single largest party by winning 47 seats with a vote share of 33.2%, just 13 short of absolute majority and is bound to from Govt on its own, which otherwise so far remained dominated by the INC, JD, JP, INLD. In Maharashtra out of 288 seats, the party has bagged 122 seats and is short of 23 seats to attain the simple majority, with a vote share of 27.8%. The performance of party in Maharashtra is equally laudable, especially after their divorce with ‘Shiv Sena’, the most trusted political partner with whom the BJP enjoyed political honeymoon for nearly 25 years and parted their ways just couple of weeks before the campaign of 2014 Assembly elections in Maharashtra started.
In Haryana, the BJP has a smooth sailing, but in Maharashtra things are quite contradictory and the sailing despite appearing smooth is not so. BJP has emerged as single largest party in Maharashtra, but surely short of simple majority to form the Government on its own. Shiv Sena, on the other hand, given their past performance has also put up a good show, as it too has managed to bag 63 odd seats, with a vote share of 19.3%. Had the BJP and the Shiv Sena fought these elections together and had they managed to get 185 seats, they won’t have asked for anything better than this and surely their political honeymoon would have touched to a new platonic high. The situation for both the parties appears like of having accomplished the mission comfortably, but yet too far from its real taste. The reading of political pundits of the situation and on the basis of political developments taking place in the Maharashtra firmly believes, that the State will have a stable Govt., as both the breakaway partners will come together and develop some consensus to make the best of the situation. Besides, neither of the parties would like to miss the opportunity, given to them by public to serve them and to live up to the expectations of people, who have shown faith in them, and nor would any of them afford to turn down the public verdict.
The way both BJP and Shiv Sena remained adamant on the seat sharing arrangement before elections, in which latter wanted to have a loin’s share and the BJP on the other hand was not ready to accept pea nuts. Besides, what worsened the standoff between the parties was the pre-condition laid down by the Shiv Sena chief, Uddav Thackeray, that the Chief Minister will be only and only from his party, and was not ready to budge even an inch from his stand. Now the question arises, if the two old war horses come together again, as this seems to be the best possible option for both the parties, then, from which party the chief minister will be chosen is to be looked for. Will Uddhav succumb before the BJP’s numbers and will he pave way for the BJP’s candidate to be the Chief Minister of the state or will he continue to press for the coveted position. In both the situations, Shiv Sena will be in a fix, because by letting BJP take the reins of the state, they will be questioning their own credibility, which resulted their alliance to break with BJP and if they continue to press for Chief Ministership, then they will be taking hostage the public verdict, which has clearly given mandate to BJP and not to the Sena. On the other hand, BJP do not parted its ways with Shiv Sena on the issue of Chief Ministership, but still they can’t offer the position to Shiv Sena, even as a good will gesture, by doing so they will be compromising with democratic values, as by no means they should bargain with the public mandate.
For both BJP and Shiv Sena, to compromise on the position of Chief Minister is quite unlikely, even the irony of the Maharashtra verdict is that, BJP by no means can ignore the Shiv Sena, as it has 18 MP’s and BJP would never like to lose their support in Parliament, despite not being a real threat to Govt., even if they withdrew their support. On the other hand NCP has cleared its stand on the outcome and has openly said, that it is ready to support the govt., from outside, but the compulsion of BJP is that it has openly declearled NCP as a naturally corrupt party. So under the prevailing conditions, to form govt in Maharashtra is not that easy, but given the open offer of NCP sailing may appear smooth for BJP, but surely their earlier understanding with Shiv Sena will keep on hunting them.
So keeping in view the different permutations and combinations, which the Maharashtra assembly verdict has thrown open will give a face saver to Shiv Sena only by providing outside unconditional support to the BJP led Govt. As this will serve various interests and political purposes of both the parties. In all BJP is secure from all sides and perhaps suitably paid for handling the issue of split with Shiv Sena with utmost care, without indulging in blame game and by not trying to show their breakaway alliance partner in poor light. Shiv Sena on the other hand too played careful and was also choosey with their words on the split issue, but the only mistake they did was, they went public with the issue of Chief Ministership and remained adamant to it, which resulted in their parting ways with BJP.
Whatsoever, BJP’s divorce with Shiv Sena has turned out to be a real curtain raiser in Maharashtra politics and a blessing in disguise for BJP as well. BJP’s apprehensiveness of its true potential and public following in Maharashtra was equally exploited by its alliance partner to its optimum and it is for this reason the Shiv Sena preferred to split rather budging even a slightest from their stand. Assembly elections of Maharashtra have also proven an eye opener for Shiv Sena, as they came to know of their true existence in the State. Although politics is all about opportunism, but still, one should be ethical even in ones wrong doings and there would have been nothing wrong in it, had both the parties conceded to the fact that the Chief Minister by all means should be preferrebly from the party which will emerge largest among the two and by not abiding to this fact would simply turn out to be disrespecting the public verdict and the mandate public may have given to a particular party.
My reading of the situation is that, the electorate of Maharashtra has held Shiv Sena more responsible for their breakup with BJP and this is what public of Maharashtra has opined through electoral verdict. One just hopes, the lesson which Shiv Sena in general and Uddhav Thackeray in particular should have learnt from this split is, that one should let the future decide over those issues which fall under its ambit and the issue of Chief Ministership was one. On the other hand BJP should also take note of the fact, that in politics, no party is indebted to any party, as it is more about party interest and gaining political mileage and the parties who take political voyages alone in troubled waters are the ones who emerge worth of public faith & trust.
(The author is Assistant Librarian, BGSB University, Rajouri, J & K)
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