Coming Assembly elections

Harihar Swarup
Another round of crucial Assembly elections are round the corner. While the polls are due in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand in December, in Delhi, where State Assembly has been dissolved, the election is slated to be held in January. Doubtless, election in Jammu and Kashmir is of vital importance in the changed scenario. Both the ruling National Conference and the Congress are in bad shape and fortune of Mehbooba Mulfti-led PDP is on rise. Upbeat on Modi wave and its victories in Maharashtra and Haryana, the BJP is hopeful of a spectacular show in J&K too. A good voter turnout and an impressive performance by the BJP would radically alter Kashmir’s fortunes.
With NC and Congress in the dumps, the BJP is well poised to do exceptionally well in Jammu that has 37 out of 87 seats in the Assembly. In Ladakh the situation is a bit more dicey. Here independents have fared well in the past. At a pinch, they could rally to the BJP.
The big challenge for the BJP is in the Valley where 46 seats are at stake. It secured less than 1% of vote in the Lok Sabha elections. Now it has fielded candidates who are expected to get support of Pandits, including those who use the postal ballot route.
In a four-cornered contest, the margin of victory and defeat is slim. This may work to BJP’s advantage to some extent. It is the PDP that is expected to do well. A BJP-PDP post poll alliance thus cannot be ruled out in place of National Conference and Congress alliance Government.
In the past, separatist call to boycott election had mixed results even in militancy-infested constituencies. Even an average turn out this time would be grievous blow to those who call for a boycott. What would unnerve them is an impressive performance by the BJP.
More than ever before, the Modi Government will have to tread cautiously as the elections in J&K approach. Coming in the wake of the floods that devastated Srinagar and other parts of the Valley, the death of two youths in Army firing recently in Budgam has provided ammunition to separatists and their mentors in Pakistan to disrupt the poll.
On both counts, the Modi Government has acted with alacrity. Within hours of Budgam incident, defense Minister, Arun Jaitley, announced that a fair enquiry will be held and action taken against those found guilty. The perception of the army had improved dramatically when it swung into action during rescue and relief operation in the wake of devastating floods.
Delhi’s long wait for an elected Government is over with the dissolution of the Assembly constituted last year; the elections are likely to be held in January or, in any case,  before February when the President’s rule ends. With the dissolution of Assembly, the political climate has warmed up as the BJP and the Aam Admi Party began attacking each other vociferously. Though mauled in the last assembly elections, Congress too has shown signs of recovery, hoping to substantially improve its tally as compared to last elections.
With corruption as the plank, the APP had won 28 seats in the December 2013 elections. The BJP won 31 seats while the Congress became a poor third with eight seats.
Now tall claims of Arvind Kejriwal notwithstanding, the fact remains that the hold of the APP on electorate has slackened; the euphoria of last elections has died down. People are angry that Kejriwal promised to solve all their problems but quit after 49 days.
People do not buy his claims that during his short rule the corruption had come down and prices of essential commodities were in check as also tariff for power and water. Even though the AAP leader swears that he would not repeat the mistake of resigning second time, voters are not impressed; they are not sure if they will give a second chance to Kejriwal.
Kejriwal has set the tone for the forthcoming Assembly elections, saying that the BJP Government at the centre was forced to take the decision to dissolve the Assembly despite repeated attempts by the BJP to poach AAP MLAs. “It is first time in history that not a single APP MLA could be bought with money. It proves that not everything is purchasable.
The love for the country cannot be bought…..this will strengthen the people’s faith in us.”
Despite the upbeat mood, the BJP has no worthwhile leader to be projected as chief ministerial candidate.
The party solely depends on the trust and goodwill of the Narendra Modi Government built over past four months and the Modi wave. BJP leaders point out that in Maharashtra and Haryana too, the party fought without projecting a Chief Minister candidate and the results were excellent. Same pattern will be followed in Delhi too.
Situation in Jharkhand continues to be confused. Just ahead of coming  Assembly elections, over a year long alliance between the Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has collapsed. Congress will contest the elections with Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) in the mineral rich State.
2014 year onwards Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has higher hopes to win and grab majority of seats. BJP won 12 seats in the 14th Lok Sabha Elections in the year 2009. In 2009 state elections, BJP and JMM won 18 seats whereas Congress and others just managed to grab 14 seats.
BJP has clinched an alliance with All Jharkhand Students Unions for Jharkhand Assembly elections under which its junior partner will contest eight of the 81 seats in the State.
AJSU chief Sudesh Mahto met BJP president Amit Shah and both sealed the tie-up following the recommendation of BJP’s State unit, BJP has decided to tie up with like-minded parties. (IPA Service)

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