Harsha Kakar
The US Presidential results are out. These are most watched across the globe as the US is still the most powerful nation. Trump, who was clearly the dark horse, regularly contradicting himself, changing statements to suit the public, indicating his shrewdness to win support and battling every allegation thrown his way including his unsuitability to occupy the high office, is now President designate. World leaders ridiculed him at every step of the campaign, yet he rarely responded. He had more than once indicated his resentment against H-1B and L1 Visas, outsourcing, Mexicans and Moslems emanating from terror affected nations. Simultaneously, when addressing Indian voters, he stated his desire to maintain close links with Indiaand even quoted a line from Modi’s campaign, ‘Ab ki bar, Trump sarkar’. Most western nations which had marked him as irrational during his election campaign, would need to work closely with him in the future. Indian leaders, as against their western counterparts, never passed any judgement or comment, even when he criticized the visa regime and outsourcing.
Trump openly indicated a desire to cut expenditure on NATO and review military security agreements with South Korea and Japan, even encouraging them to develop nuclear weapons for their own protection, from North Korea and China respectively. US relations with the Philippines is already on a downswing. His plans of countering Chinese hegemony is by imposing additional taxes on imports from them, in other words, military issues could be effectively dealt by economics. Trump also seeks to engage closely with Russia to improve ties and operate jointly to defeat the ISIS. He has yet to indicate his thoughts on Afghanistan and West Asia, though he has announced his desire to block Moslems belonging to terror affected nations from entering the US. His only Afghan comment had been to retain ten thousand troops in Afghanistan to deal with a nuclear Pakistan.
His surprise election victory projects the hidden fears within the US population of increasing unemployment, xenophobia, impact of outsourcing and agreements harmful to the US, fears which he would in some form, address. His concept of making the US great again indicates an inward policy, which could never be further from the truth. The last President who attempted this was George Bush Jr. The world is aware that words spoken during elections are meant for audiences and to garner votes, however in his case, his flippant views and lack of political experience could herald a shift in US policy.
Last week, PM Modi travelled to Japan and inked agreements on nuclear energy and to enhance defence cooperation, to counter growing Chinese belligerence in the South China Sea. Both leaders would have also discussed the likely attitude of President elect Trump. In the present scenario, the US, Japan and India are natural allies against a rising China. While Philippines has already indicated its desire to move away from the US camp,Australia the fourth natural ally, desires to avoid opposing China for economic gains. The manner of continuing US engagements in the region would play a major role in countering China. While Trump stated his desire to increase presence in the South China Sea, his contrary statement was of reducing military engagements with Japan.
The US is today India’s second largest military supplier. Further, the inking of the LEMOA has brought the two nations strategically closer. The US also considers India as a net security provider for the region. Logically economic and military cooperation between India and the USneed toprogress simultaneously. There cannot be blocks on economic agenda’s and cooperation in military affairs. India’s security involvement with the US is more about the Asia pivot, as also its continued engagement with Afghanistan. While West Asia may not be in India’s immediate neighbourhood, however it is on our radar, since news of ISIS presence increasing in Afghanistan and Pakistan began filtering in. AQIS (al Qaeda in the Indian Sub- Continent) already has a base in Bangladesh and it would only be some time, before we are also affected.
The US has begun moving away from Pakistan, an action which the next government is likely to continue. If Trump’s comment that Pakistan should apologize for sheltering Osama for six years and release the doctor who helped identify him, is any indicator, Pakistan would be pressurized into closing terror camps. This may be to our benefit. Pakistan has jumped onto a statement made during elections, where he offered to mediate between the two countries. More importantly, is the official policy that he would have for Afghanistan. Any plan of abandoning it,could damage India in the long term, while the option of retaining or enhancing American involvement to counter terror groups and Pakistan would be to our benefit.
In any case, India as a growing economic power, strategically straddled along the main shipping lines, with a powerful military cannot be ignored. It would need to be engaged to enable the US to reduce its external deployments. The higher the level of engagement, the wider would doors open for modern technological weapons, including the Predator armed drones or a near variant, an equipment which India desperately needs. Further, developing better relations with Russia as also joint engagement to eradicate the IS and other terror groups in West Asia, could benefit the region.
Recently countries across the globe have been voting for change, mainly due to internal frustrations and economic fear. The vote for Brexit, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and now Trump in the US are indicators. However, nothing is perpetual in international relations, except national interests. George W Bush Jrcommenced his Presidency with a desire to withdraw from external engagements and concentrate on internal development. 9/11 changed everything and the US under his watch was involved in Afghanistan and Iraq. Hence, with Trump too, his words and deeds would be at variance. The team he nominates would be key to the future, as they would be his main advisors. However, it is evident that the Trump Presidency would usher in change and we as humansare resistant to it.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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