New Delhi, Oct 1: No single party is going to secure a majority in the Assembly elections to be held this month both in Maharashtra and Haryana, says an IndiaTV-CVoter tracking poll conducted in the fourth week of September.
In the 90-seat Haryana Assembly, the BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party with 33 seats, closely followed by Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal with 28 seats. The Congress party, ruling the state for the last 10 years, is projected to come third with 16 seats.
Haryana Janhit Congress-Haryana Jan Chetna Party alliance may win 9 seats, with the remaining four seats going to ‘Others’ and independents, says the tracking poll.
In the 2009 Assembly elections in Haryana, the Congress had won 40 seats, the INLD 31, BJP 4, HJC and HJP 6, and Others 9 seats.
Voteshare wise, BJP this time may get 32 pc votes, followed by INLD with 29 pc, Congress 20 pc, HJC-HJP 11 pc and Others 8 per cent.
The calculations are based on what CVoter said “the cumulative tracking poll data of respondents interviewed across all Assembly segments. Data have been weighted to known census profile, and the margin of error is plus/minus 3 per cent at State level, and plus/minus 5 pc at regional level.”
In the crucial western State of Maharashtra, not a single party is going to secure majority on its own, with five-cornered contests slated for most of the seats.
The India TV-CVoter tracking poll projects BJP as the single largest party in the 288-seat Assembly with 93 seats, followed by estranged ally Shiv Sena with 59 seats. The Nationalist Congress Party is projected to win 47 seats, followed by former ally Congress with 40 seats.
Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is projected to win 27 seats, while smaller parties and independents may win 22 seats, says the tracking poll.
In the 2009 Assembly elections in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP United Progressive Alliance had won 144 seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena NDA had won 90 and ‘Others’ 54 seats.
Voteshare wise, BJP is going to get 23 pc votes, followed by Shiv Sena with 19 pc, NCP 18 pc, Congress 17 pc and MNS 9 pc votes. Others may get 14 pc votes.
The tracking poll also posed questions on several issues before respondents. 26.7 pc of the respondents in Maharashtra said, price rise was the most important issue, while in Haryana, 21.9 pc said unemployment/business problems was the most important issue.
In Maharashtra, 30.5 pc respondents, and in Haryana 27.4 pc respondents held the State Governments responsible for the current problems.
In Haryana, 32.9 pc respondents and in Maharashtra 33.1 pc said BJP could solve their problems in a better manner.
In Haryana, 75.3 pc respondents, and in Maharashtra 75.6 pc said they were angry with the State Governments and wanted change.
Asked which party would they vote for, 37.8 pc respondents in Haryana and 26.9 pc respondents in Maharashtra said they would vote for BJP.
In Haryana, 22.2 pc respondents said they would vote for INLD, and 15.6 pc said they would vote for Congress.
In Maharashtra, 16.1 pc respondents said they would vote for NCP, 12.2 pc said they would vote for Congress and only 1.3 pc said they would give their vote to MNS.
Asked whom they thought was the best candidate to become Chief Minister, 16 per cent opted for Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, 12.8 pc opted for Prithviraj Chavan, 11.9 pc for BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, and 5.5 pc for MNS chief Raj Thackeray.
In Haryana, 16.6 pc said they considered Bhupinder Singh Hooda the best candidate for Chief Minister post, while 14.4 pc opted for INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala. BJP leader Captain Abhimanya was preferred by only 8.2 per cent, while 7.4 pc opted for HJC leader Kuldeep Bishnoi.
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