Amit Kushari (IAS Retd)
After the defeat in the Municipal Council polls of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party appear to be in a state of confusion and despair. The Congress Party is also in despair and some of their Delhi state leaders have also resigned. However, they had the common sense and grace not to blame the EVM machines like the leaders of the AAP. Most of us tend to jump to quick conclusions about the health of a party, looking at the number of seats won. In a multi party democracy like ours, the number of seats won does not necessarily reflect correctly the state of health of a party. To make a correct assessment, we have to take a closer look at the percentage of popular votes gained by each party to assess correctly which way the wind is blowing in politics. The media has portrayed that it was a disaster for the Congress since it was pushed down to the third position after BJP and AAP. This assessment is completely wrong and there was no reason for Lalit Maken to resign as Congress head of Delhi. Time will also tell Mr Lovely Singh that he didn’t take a wise decision in deserting Congress for joining BJP. The Delhi municipal results are fantastically good for the Congress and shows that the Congress is showing signs of recovery in Delhi.
BJP had shown remarkable stability in Delhi since 2012. In the MCD elections of 2012 they got 39% votes, in Assembly elections of 2013 also they got 39% votes. In assembly elections of 2015 they got 38% votes. Now in the MCD elections of 2017 also they got 38% votes. In other words they have held on to their horses in a remarkable way. The communally oriented Hindu voters of Delhi have continued to support BJP to the same extent as they have always done before. They have not been swayed away from BJP despite the lack of governance in MCD, despite piling garbage on the roads, despite the rising cases of Dengue and Chikengunya, despite all the woes of demonetisation and frequent doses of taxation by the Modi government. This can definitely be termed ‘Modi magic’. These BJP supporters look upon PM Modi as a big messiah who will enhance the glory of India as a big Hindu Hriday Samrat. But for this halo of PM Modi and the unflinching loyalty of the bhakts, the BJP percentage in Delhi could have easily slipped below 30%. The PM very rightly, thanked the people of Delhi for their continued support. However, the truth is that only 38% of Delhiites deserved the thanks . On the other hand, the Congress had a 26% support in 2013 Assembly elections. In 2014 the Modi wave swept over the whole of Northern and western India and the congress was swept away. This was observed in the Delhi assembly elections of 2015. Congress was reduced to only 12% votes. 14% voters (mostly Muslim and Dalit voters) shifted to AAP. AAP’s vote swelled from 38% to 52% and they had a sweeping victory winning 67 out of 70 assembly seats.
Now the MCD results show in 2017 that these Congress voters who had taken shelter in AAP have now gone back home to their old Congress fold. The Congress percentage has again shot up from 12% to 26%. AAP should find out why these 14 % voters returned to Congress abandoning AAP. Why couldn’t AAP keep them satisfied? AAP’s own votes have slided from 38% to 31% now. Why did that happen? The difference in numbers with BJP has widened vis a vis 2013. Earlier AAP had a 1% advantage in 2013 over BJP which swelled to 14% in 2015 due to arrivals from the Congress party and now it is 7% below BJP. Because of this BJP has knocked them out in 185 seats in MCD. The poor EVMs had no role in it. Instead of blaming EVMs Mr Kejriwal should have thought of seat adjustments with the Congress. He should get rid of the anti Congress mind set under the present circumstances. Had he done that before the MCD elections he would have got 57% votes (31 +26) and he could have come out victorious in at least 250 out of 270 seats. He could have got 125 sets and Congress could have got 125 seats. BJP would have bitten the dust. But to do this one has to kill ones own ego. Congress should have also done the same. Nitish and Laloo had shown the way in Bihar. Throughout northern India, from Jammu/ Himachal to Goa and Gujrat to Bihar, in the whole of the cow belt/Hindia BJP has a committed vote bank of 35 to 45%. So to contain the BJP all secular parties have to join hands. Kejriwal has to work out a formula with not only Sonia Gandhi but also with Mayawati, Akhilesh, Nitish and Laloo for the general elections of 2019. Sonia Gandhi should also open heartedly cooperate with leaders like Naveen Patnaik. Mamata Bannerjee, TRS and the Left. If possible, even Shiv Sena could be roped in in Maharashtra.
Arvind Kejriwal and Sonia Gandhi should not be disheartened at all. In fact, their repeated defeats in the hands of the BJP should force them to shed their egos and form a big alliance for 2019. For the Gujerat elections of 2017 Kejriwal should either withdraw from the contest in favour of the Congress or contest in a few seats allotted to them by the Congress.
(The author is former financial Commissioner, J&k Feedback to the author at 09748635185 or amitkus@ hotmail.com )
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