Ten crore jobs

Shiban  Khaibri
It is often believed that Economics is a difficult subject, rudimentary and uncompromising in its basic principles. As students of elementary Economics, we can reverse this contention and we can sincerely apply economic theories and models to our every day life to experience wonderful results.  One thing, however, is very fundamental in the subject viz; there being very limited and strict sense of humour in it. The Congress Party, on the other hand is seen to inject a vast scope of humour , if not too many empty truisms, in its application when very challenging topics like fighting unemployment are to be dwelt with in its election manifesto. During the intervening period of five years, neither are any reviews or appraisals made to the “visionary objectives” as scripted in the manifestoes nor the level assessed of how much of which economic promise is accomplished to shape strategies to complete the task.  It is, however,  very much interesting to note that the oldest political party of the country in its election manifesto has promised 10 crore jobs to the unemployed youth of the country in next five years, if voted to power.
Incredible it looks, and surprise it evokes that as many as two crore jobs would be created every year or approximately 17 lac jobs every month by the Congress Party led UPA 3. If the memory of the people is not that short, it was the same party which promised very high on fighting unemployment in its 2009 manifesto, promising one job for at least one person in each family. Added to it, the Economist turned politician Prime Minister had further promised a complete “turnaround in the economy in just 100 days, if voted to power”. In reality, both the promises remained unfulfilled rather the economy saw continuous drop in annual rate of growth, witnessed high inflation, unemployment and drop in industrial production. How it dawned on the policy planners  on economic and commercial matters in the Congress party  to arrive at the figures of ten crore jobs and  not 15 or 8 crore,  must have been  as a result of assessing interplay of various economic variables and projections duly worked out and meticulously  calculated.
We know that economic development or economic growth is fundamental requirement for creation of employment opportunities in a developing country like India. At a growth rate of barely 4.5% to 4.8% as at present, how has been this cozy figure of 10 crore worked out in the Congress manifesto and who is going to believe it? The associated variables like  labour laws, land laws, investments in key sectors, fighting red tapes in avoiding inordinate delays in creating and developing key projects have not been touched at all to lend some amount of credibility to the promise of such a big magnitude.  Here a passing reference to global financial bigwig Goldman Sachs is important as he praises the Gujarat model of development since the Gujarat Government amended the Industrial Disputes Act in 2004 in that there are flexible labour laws which are inversely related to creation of manufacturing jobs. Such laws allow greater flexibility in the labour market for special Economic zones (SEZ). In contrast, West Bengal Government adopted conservative laws to continue which are not conducive to enable manufacturing units to earn and expand. Loss making enterprises should either recover or get wound up for which efficiency, hard work, cutting down on wastages and idle capacities and competitive growth are important. Let the jaundiced eye against Gujarat Government’s policy be replaced with an objective one and it shall be observed that during the last decade, there was a growth of 60% in manufacturing employment in Gujarat while in West Bengal there was a paltry 21%. As per the view of Goldman Sachs, the new Government in Delhi from mid 2014 should see the labour market reforms as an important and a critical ingredient to accelerate the country’s economic growth and hence employment.
We cannot buy, at least the youth of the country not in the least, some expansion of the likes of MGNREGA schemes of digging of drains, ditches and ponds in the rural areas to claim having tackled unemployment in some tangible way. The biggest challenge is how to provide jobs and employment to those 80 lac students who complete their college education every year. Then the other areas of unemployed have to be taken into account and come out with an economic solution. A very tall claim as this by a political party which has had a very dismal track record of performance during the last 10 years, especially between 2009 to date, can hardly claim the promise to be translated into reality. We ought first to know from the Congress as to why growth of the economy decelerated which is fundamental to creation of employment avenues. A nose dive from 9 to 4.8% of GDP growth , under performance in the shape of policy paralysis, no economic reforms and visionary initiatives, uncontrolled inflation, the ever increasing import bill of petroleum products including the main crude oil  are some of the reasons as to why the economy performed so badly. We have to foot the ever increasing bill of import of oil amounting to Rs.10 to 11 lac crore which works out to be 8% plus of our GDP, annually. This is largely responsible for current account deficit and falling rupee which pushes prices and costs leading to inflation. Why has a big project like Railways, a major source of employment provider not improved upon, this being a core sector, there has taken place no major infrastructural development? Vote bank and coalition politics has prevented augmenting revenue avenues  in Railways and running Railways on “as is where is” basis and clearing the long pending projects quite late by many years adding to cost, has contributed towards slackening of  growth. Caring for coalition equations to save the Government at the cost of economic decisions has boomeranged in an economic mess.
Needless to mention, the next Government of whichever party or arrangement at Delhi, shall have very trying and challenging task to repair the economy in order to put it on rails. Its real test among other major ones will be how to bring down the number of the unemployed for which it shall have to boost investment and cut spending in a major way. The larger portion of money from the public coffers goes towards subsidies on fertilizers and fuel which needs to be reviewed in a rational way. Prevention of floods and harvesting of rain water to fight drought and meet water requirements in peak season has been missing in priorities. Likewise, Power ministry has shown no progress in ensuring developing new power projects to fight power crisis. Agriculture is in need of vast reforms and needs riddance from control of external and internal trade markets, cooperatives with need based financial, technical and marketing facilities shall prevent flight of agricultural labour and even peasantry to other ventures.
The think tank of the Party knows that projections like ten crore jobs are according to a leading journalist like “Biryani of illusions” never going to see the light of the day and the youth cannot buy this illusion to help UPA return to power. It has in its own scheme of things winnable hopes    implicit in polarization of votes through   appeals on blatant communal lines from Imams, raking up of 1992 and 2002 incidents to the hilt and the rhetoric of the same ilk as against tangible visionary economic agenda.

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