Rajan Kotru, Virender Raina
It would be trivial to anticipate the political power centres of the globe by the end of the century. This keeping also in view that even a microscopic event such as the Corona 19 -as unpredictable event- can trigger a reorganised scenario where transnational groupings show renewed political alignments. Nevertheless, for instance, Friedmann (2010) while forecasting the next 100 years envisions the world of 2050 as the technological frontier where our crystal ball will be cloudiest. This sounds reasonable as we gear up for space-age and artificial intelligence era. As Walt (2015) sums up, it is also that the United States, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Russia, and the EU will be major economic players in 2050, and the states that have high per capita incomes at present will almost certainly have high per capita incomes 35 years from now. Nonetheless we have seen from COVID-Crisis that such assumptions can be fraught with a huge element of uncertainty as countries face economic recession in the midst of already confirmed climate change crisis. However, we have also seen that in the past two decades “Power Game of Geo Politics” has effected new international alignments and therefore political constellations for 2050 are difficult to predict. Several developments point in direction that the erstwhile Western-dominated paradigm where US and Western Europe ruled the roost militarily and economically is since long ‘passe’. We have witnessed fault-lines in intellectual, culture and economic landscape which are being redefined as west gets busy with itself while absorbing immigrants, tackling far-right wings resurgence, dealing with Brexit and tendencies of economic recession caused by COVID Crisis. Notwithstanding that the entire world is already haunted by the ghost of climate change and huge loss of ecological capital from which we all live. As Russia still mulls over “Perestroika and glasnost” and tries to make fresh mark in the world politics, the big winner for the global power-domain has been undoubtedly China. Since a decade or so, China has in a subtle way of diplomacy used the metaphor of ancient silk roads which were trade and cross-cultural assets of yesteryears, to flex its economic muscle and demonstrate its stark willingness to take over the “Global Power” role that US was monopolising. The emergence of a strong India as the next-door competitor is a risk with which China did not plan its “Applecart” that aims to occupy all continents and especially least developed and developing countries to have direct and cheap access to resources for its growth hungry economy. The sudden need of occupying neutral zone of Line of Actual Control (LAC) against India with its military might, when the whole world is combatting Climate Change issues, huge biodiversity loss challenge and COVID Crisis, is therefore a part of a greater geopolitical design than our eye meets. China wants to demonstrate its future economic model of “Belt and Road Initiative” by means of China Pakistan Economic Corridor to South Asia, Middle-East, Central Asia and Europe creating basis for credibility and legitimacy of the future super power that aims for globalised development while entangling nations in debts and occupancy by Chinese companies. Against this background, the event at the LAC can be seen as a “Trojanic Horse” that hides more than it reveals. Given the fact that “The Dragon” has started encroaching Nepalese land with a pro-China Government at the helm in Nepal. India has given rapid and fitting response and will now need to back it up with more strategic investments in the regional ‘geography’ where it stands out as trusted and equitable well-wisher to its other neighbors. As an example, based on equal level of partnership, India could support religious institutions in Communist-Nepal much more vigorously. Buddhist monasteries across border areas to China are deteriorating. Their restoration could be supported to create goodwill. Similarly, “Chaar Dam Yatra” of Nepalese senior citizens from Indo-Nepal border onwards could be subsidized. Cricket and football are a big sport in Nepal and their big-time promotion could be invested apart from increasing number and type of scholarships to its youth. It is time to support younger and brilliant politicians of Nepal than musical chair prime ministers. Secondly, we need to rethink our ‘demography’ especially in the Himalayas where we share border with six countries. Post COVID times could be used to keep our border and mountain populations intact by improving the economic opportunities, digital connectivity, market access and outreach of health care and education. There are numerous returnees now in all the mountain states and it is time to offer them economic avenues soonest. Thirdly, for lifting ‘economy’ from the current quagmire, we need to inject new entrepreneurship ideas and investments in alignment with providing improved governance that makes us productive and accountable towards nation. This can help reinforcement of our neglected border and mountain areas and bring us at par with China which has heavily invested in the development of Tibetan plateau keeping geopolitics in view. In the Bermuda Triangle of future Geopolitics India needs to further cement its inevitability in South Asia beyond 2050 against China and Pakistan, and hence lastly, diplomacy and ruthless tactics need to be combined regionally and globally to mutually inclusive partnerships and as “Great Wall” against political and military brinkmanship of the “Dragon”. (The authors are LEAD Strategist Redefined Sustainable Thinking and Patron Redefined Sustainable Thinking) feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
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