Anil Anand
Never have the Panchayat and Municipal elections got much of traction either from the contesting political parties or the media as has been during the last six years of Narendra Modi rule and with a uniquely rejuvenated BJP. The reason being that the BJP’s current dispensation which of course is over-flowing with resources has been taking these ground level elections in the same vein as the Lok Sabha or Assembly polls. Win at all costs seems to be the dictum.
The winning or losing a grassroots level election in some ways reflects a political party’s organisational hold and its reputation among the masses. In the context of the BJP it reflects the party’s keenness to spread its base to the lowest tier of the democracy and its success in such elections in state after state shows the broader acceptability the party is gaining even in the hitherto unchartered territories.
The clear message is that the BJP is on ascendancy notwithstanding the hardships which the people have been facing on account of certain policy mess ups by the Centre as well as the party run state governments. The Modi factor rides roughshod over everything else even the steep inflation with not a whiff of protest anywhere.
What do these elections hold for the Congress which has been decimated in state after state and has barely hung by the thread in states governed by it? The latest in this line is Rajasthan where though the party has a comfortable majority but it was recently beset with serious factionalism that came out in the form of chief minister Mr Ashok Gehlot versus the then deputy chief minister Mr Sachin Pilot.
All though there are no set rules but the normal trend is that the local bodies and panchayat elections are normally comfortably won by the party ruling a particular state. There seems to be a change in the offing on this front also both from the BJP and the Congress perspective.
The BJP has mostly swept the elections in the states ruled by it which is in line with the up till now proven theory. However, the party has also done exceedingly well in the states which are ruled by other parties including the powerful regional outfits. In the context of the Rajasthan the none-too-impressive victory of the Congress is an indicator of another story unfolding underneath. These two developments reflect the changing trends.
The big indicator is that the Congress is in the throes of a crisis triggered and bigger than its ongoing organisational rumblings. The situation has been further complicated by the status quo approach of its high command. For all practical purposes it has become a moribund organisation.
But, even a far bigger challenge could emerge for the over a century old party in terms of its diminishing significance in the realm of opposition unity. The successive defeats in the grassroots level elections further indicate the Congress’ fast constricting base which will have a direct bearing on the party’s chances of playing a pivotal role to forge a front of like-minded parties against the BJP.
Surprisingly, the base of the anti-BJP parties has widened over the months with some of the important NDA allies or the BJP’s supporting parties either in the sulk or keen to protect their bastions from the expansionist BJP. There is the fledgling UPA in place with Congress dithering to play its role of a fulcrum.
And there are regional parties such as Trinmool Congress of Ms Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, Mr Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Jatanta Dal in Orissa, Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh and Mr K Chandrashekher Rao’s Telengana Rashtra Samiti in Telengana, Mr Parkash Singh Badal’s Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, Mr Udhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in Maharashtra ( the first four are seen as sympathisers of the Modi government from time to time while SAD and Shiv Sena were BJP’s oldest allies and have since left the NDA) who are keen to come on a common platform to fight the BJP’s might in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. And then there are the ilks of DMK. Not to be left out of the counting box is the Maratha strongman and head of the Nationalist Congress Party, Mr Sharad Pawar.
Although there are reports that these regional satraps are already on an exploratory mission and testing waters about the prospects of coming together, the common thread among them is that none wants to touch the Congress in its current terminal stage. Such a situation could lead to two possibilities having bearing on the future politics of the opposition camp. Firstly, it could lead to a non-Congress front against the BJP and second probability would be that the Congress accepts the role of a supporting rather than a dictating party to become a rallying point for the exercise.
The defeat in the local bodies and municipal elections and with no end in sight to its organisational woes, the alarm bells have started ringing for the Congress more vigorously than ever before. The party’s policy makers must sit up and realise that the situation is fast slipping out of the Congress’ hands.
First and foremost the party must resolve its leadership issue not only from the organisational perspective but also keeping in view the wider opposition unity issue which would be central to its survival. It thereby means that the new Congress president should not only be acceptable within the organisation but also among the regional parties if it has to play any pivotal role in forging opposition unity.
This has become more imperative given the fact that most of the regional leaders are currently in power in their respective states. They are much stronger than the Congress. The only bargaining chip for the Congress till date was being a national party with pan-India presence. This definition is fast changing with every electoral defeat and in turn giving more muscles to the regional players.
If a non-Congress front becomes a reality and with a strong BJP on the other side, the Congress would certainly be headed towards bigger disasters. The Congress has no option but to follow a two pronged policy of setting its house in order without any delay and in turn ensure that it placed itself for a bigger role in the domain of opposition unity.
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