Amit Kushari (IAS. Retd)
Recently UPA was celebrating its 9th year in power with the Prime Minister, Congress President and Congress Vice President bragging about their marvelous achievements in the last nine years. The ceremony looked quite pathetic in fact because most of our national news channels were at the same time beaming nationwide surveys regarding the political mood of the people . Most of the surveys indicated that if general elections were held today the UPA score will be only 130 with Congress getting around 110 seats in the Lok Sabha. The polls also indicated that the main opposition party BJP will not be able to fill up the vacuum left behind by the Congress.
The BJP is likely to get a meagre 140 with the NDA alliance getting an unimpressive tally of 180 — quite far away from the magic figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha, which enables an alliance to come to power in Delhi. Leaving 30 seats for the Left Front, all the remaining 200 seats are likely to be captured by the regional parties which are very strong in all the non Hindi speaking states. These parties are going to wipe out the Congress and BJP in the non Hindi speaking areas – Karnataka being the only notable exception. Even in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh Congress and BJP will have to fight a tough battle with regional parties like Samajwadi party and Bahujan Samaj party. BJP’s graph always remained stunted because the 14% minorities of India will put all their weight against BJP whom they perceive as the biggest enemy of Muslims. In states like UP, Bihar, Bengal and Assam, where the Muslim population is very high, BJP faces a tough time unless it is in alliance with another Muslim friendly party (as in Bihar).
From these forecasts, it is quite apparent that after the 2014 general elections, India is likely to get a ‘khichdi’ type government headed by a leader of a powerful regional party — maybe Mulayam Singh or maybe Jayalalitha. Undoubtedly Congress did some good work in the rural areas but it seems it will go unnoticed. The financial condition of the villagers has taken a quantum leap upwards in the last 10 years thanks to schemes like NREGA, where 100 days employment is guaranteed almost doing no work and relaxing at home. If you want to find a poverty stricken household in rural India today you have to make a thorough search in the far flung inaccessible areas. On the other hand urban India is today seething in rage against UPA and are anxiously waiting for an opportunity to press the EVM button to throw out UPA, bag and baggage. This is because UPA has squeezed the urban Indians to pump funds into the rural areas, a sort of bribe for the rural voters. The urban Indians have been harassed in many, many ways….high inflation, fuel price hikes, cap on LPG cylinders, no relief at all in income tax, unending scams and tales of corruption.
The opinion polls have given another bizarre prediction — if Narendra Modi leads the NDA, the NDA graph will rise from 180 to 220 and the UPA graph will rise also from 130 to 150!! As a consequence, the regional parties will lose 60 seats and their graph will slide down from 200 to 140. In that case there will be no ‘khichdi’ government as NDA with 220 seats will be at a striking distance from power and it will not be difficult for them to get a few additional friends from the regional parties to come to power. Jayalalitha is likely to get 30 seats and Mamta Bannerji 25 seats. If these two ladies with their 55 seats help the NDA — then the NDA will come to power with Narendra Modi as P.M. This prediction is very astonishing but if we think deeply its not very difficult to understand why and how this can happen. Narendra Modi leading NDA may have no effect on the voters in the non Hindi speaking areas (Gujrat and Maharashtra should be considered as part of the Hindi belt) —- but in Hindi speaking areas it can have a significant effect. There are many Hindu voters in the Hindi belt who vote for SP, BSP and Congress in the absence of a charismatic Hindu leader. If they find Narendra Modi as a possible P.M. they may flock to NDA. On the other hand, Muslim voters will be so frightened that they will flock to Congress and UPA and will not waste their votes for SP and BSP. This explains why the NDA figure will rise from 180 to 220 and UPA figures will rise from 130 to 150.
If after 2014, both UPA and NDA cannot capture power, it will be a sad day for India’s unity and integrity. It will also be a sad day for all those who want to see Government of India taking quick and strong decisions for the progress of the country. Today the possibility of having a strong government in Delhi appears to be quite dim indeed.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner J&K Feedback to author at 09748635185 or amitkus@hotmail.com)
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