K S Tomar
The assembly polls in five states in India including West Bengal, Tamil NADU, Kerala, Assam and Puduchery will be a Precursor of future politics in India as outcome will have repercussions on BJP’s political ambition to surge ahead in South besides giving an idea about survival instinct of a dwindling fate and decimating congress party.
Political observers opine that a barometer of climax of a success is always followed by an Anti climax phenomenon and that’s why the BJP has adopted most aggressive postures coupled with a ‘killing spirit’ to make inroad in southern states. It has attained a peak across a vast drape and swathe to the north of the ‘Vindhyas’ hence it has to travel southward to make fresh conquests, as it were, and not be confined to Karnataka.BJP gave tickets to even four sitting members of parliament which itself speaks about seriousness of the high command to value every seat to defeat Mamta.
Similarly, Congress will be in a miserable position if it fails to win Kerala and Puduchery as it will be a bad omen for the leadership of Rahul Gandhi who is poised to take over as regular president after these assembly polls in June.
Left parties’ expected dismal performance in Kerala and West Bengal will push them further in oblivion thereby gradually losing identity at national level also .
The recent move of BJP reflects it’s commitment to spreading its sphere of influence hence it has opted 88-year-old “Metro man” E Sreedharan as its star catch in Kerala. His induction may be symbolic but confirms that even Margdarshak Mandal retirement rules are selectively applied in the BJP’s power play which is practical and ruthless.
IT was a call from Sonia Gandhi to Stalin which finally saved the alliance between Congress and DMK in Tamil Nadu and latter has agreed to give 25 seats though former had been demanding 40 seats.
Following the decision of Sasi Kala to retire from politics, main question being asked in Tamil Nadu whether her supporters will bail out AIDIMK candidates or silently they will like to bury this regime which will pave the way for return to the organization at the helm of affairs?
Due to demise of its tallest leader, Tarun Gogoi, congress is facing biggest challenge in Assam as he has been established state leader having mass base in entire state. Priyanka Gandhi’s plucking of tea leaves in Assam may be aimed at exploiting local sentiments but nothing is certain about its impact so far.
The Congress has managed to have a pre-poll ‘Mahagatbandhan’ (Grand Alliance) with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), CPI, CPI (M), CPI (ML) and Anchalik Gana Morcha. Congress’s old ally — the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) — has re-joined the coalition after breaking the ties with BJP.
Contrary to it, BJP’s top brass including Prime minister, Modi,home minister ,Amti Shah and national president, Jagat Prakash, Nadda has infused a new energy in party’s campaign. It appears that election commission has followed ethnic, linguistic and geographical parameters while finalizing the poll dates in this state. The BJP together with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and the Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) is targeting to win 100-plus seats.
But Trinamool Congress in West Bengal says that “PRATYAKSHI NAHIN MIL RAHAIN HAIN ISLIYE DALBADLUYON KO BHI APNAYA JA RAHA HAI”(BJP is not getting candidates hence even defectors are being accommodated).Citizens of neighboring Bangladesh are watching the outcome of polls and if BJP comes to power then there are chances of getting Teesta Waters which has been denied by Mamta whereas local Bangaldeshis wish for the return of Didi who takes care of them.BJP government may act as per Hindutuva policy which scares them.
Bhartiya Kisan Union leader, Rakesh Singh Tikait’s entry at Singur assembly segment is being debated as he has openly appealed the farmers to defeat BJP which is anti agriculturists in the country.
BJP is all out to unsettle Mamta Banerji as congress and left parties seem to be nowhere in the picture so far because both are not being reckoned even in the striking range of power game which has made them as fringe players.
Due to absence of chief ministerial candidate ,BJP has made it Modi versus Mamta which will decide about popularity of both leaders especially prime minister who has been winning even assembly polls for his party barring ORISSA in 2019 and Delhi in 2017.BJP gamble relates to its campaign to convince the voters to give a chance to Modi who will ensure development of State after having double engine governments.
On cadres strength, Trinamool Congress may have an edge as it has got a violent machinery imported from left parties which slipped in oblivion after losing touch from grassroots due to corruption, arrogance, anti people tactics etc.
BJP was built by Rashtriya Swayam Sewak (RSS)over the decade and now defections of ministers and legislators alongwith their supporters who are giving muscle and money power fight to ruling party in elections.BJP lost over 129 workers in violence and blamed Trinamool musclemen for inciting such violent clashes in the State.
BJP’s aggressive ‘Hindutuva Agenda’ coupled with Modi government’s achievements at centre may be a pointer towards upheaval in West Bengal though it is not easy proposition either keeping view Mamta’s full throated fight backed by committed cadres and recent poll survey which predicts her return to power which is being facilitated and strategized by Prashant Kishore besides other factors.
Political observers point out that If the BJP wins, West Bengal would join the list of states which party sees as crucial to its treasure of RSS’s ideological framework to go its way thereby advancing towards other states where polls will be held next year.BJP Think Tank comprising mainly of RSS may accept the ‘Defeat’ as a ‘Gain’ because it will be fully ready and interpret it as an certainty to capture power in 2026 assembly elections.
On the other hand if the Trinamool Supremo retains power, she would join the handful of political leaders in the country like Kejiriwal in Delhi who could defeat Narendra Modi-led BJP which has posed mountain like challenge to well settled regional leaders. Mamta will be cementing her place as one of the tallest Opposition leaders at a time when the Congress is dotting and doddering.
Due to injury controversy ,West Bengal chief minister, Mamta Banerjee may try to derive sympathy in Singur and other constituencies as she intends to campaign on wheel chair.BJP has described it as a ‘drama’ as she is fearing defeat in the polls.
But she had taken a lead when candidates were announced for 291 seats and decided to vacate Bhowanipore and decided to contest from Nadigram to Shevendu Adhikari who had ditched her to join BJP.
Observes opine that BJP had penetrated in tribal districts like of Purulia, Bankura, West Midnapore and also parts of north Bengal where it managed to win seven of eight Lok Sabha seats in 2019 elections. The BJP’s success in north Bengal and the south Bengal districts of Malda, Nadia and Hooghly is being interpreted as its popularity among Hindus who are either descendants of refugees from Bangladesh or who crossed the border into India to escape religious persecution.
Chief Minister has coined THREE Ms i.e. Mamta,Muslism and Mahila hence Trinamool candidates list includes 50 women (17% of the total), and 42 Muslims (14.43%), with the largest chunk going to SCs and tickets denied to 27 sitting MLAs.
Mamta has coined slogan like Bengal daughter vs Sonar Bangla and TMC has projected this election as a contest between Mamata, as “Bengal’s own daughter (Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chai)”, and the “outsider” BJP’s “communal” politics “unknown to the state”.
On the other hand, BJP is promising development and jobs – a return to ‘Sonar Bangla (Golden Bengal)’. The party fancies chances of putting Mamta on mat on these weak points who had snatched power from communists on the plank of on a ‘Maa, Mati, Manush’ campaign who had stopped an SEZ in Nandigram and the Tata Nano project in Singur. BJP has been blaming Mamta for failure to bring investment or jobs to the state, forcing residents to migrate to other states.
Writer is a senior journalist and political analyst
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