Anil Anand
Under the cover of the ongoing elections to four states and a Union Territory (UT) assembly, subtlety coupled with usual confusion seems to be at work in the echelons of Congress with an eye on the party president’s election slated in two months’ time. The subtlety at work is to diffuse the bogey created by the now famous Group 23 leaders. The confusion is on account of no clear cut line of control that had been erased with the demise of Mr Ahmed Patel.
The rebel leaders, so to say, are lying low waiting for the elections to elect a new president and if need be force a similar exercise for constituting the Congress Working Committee. The assembly/UT elections have provided them a breather notwithstanding the fact there are discernible cracks in their ranks and barring Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, the leader of the G23, former Union Minister, Mr Kapil Sibal and deputy leader of the party in Rajya Sabha, Mr Anand Sharma, most others seem to have already broken ranks with the group.
If the assembly elections have given the G23 an excuse for pause to reenergise themselves and strike if the plan for organisational elections did not happen to their liking, it has given much needed elbow space to the interim president, Mrs Sonia Gandhi and her advisors to manoeuvre. This is not only meant to take sting out of the rebellious group, but also to implement their own plan that may finally unfold in the May-June presidential elections. Establish the supremacy rather than going to elections under duress, seems to be the guiding principle.
The assembly elections are already in the mid-course and lists containing the names of the party’s star campaigners have already been drawn. Expectedly, names of some of the members of G23 find place in the lists while keeping the prime movers of the dissent away. This is a clear attempt aimed at weaning away as many members of this group as possible and isolate Azad- Sharma-Sibal combo. It is another matter that even these leaders learnt to have asked their supporters to lie low and refrain from doing anything that could further precipitate the issue.
In the ongoing assembly elections the focus of the Congress is clearly on Assam, Kerala, where the party is fathoming its chance to regain power, and partially on Tamil Nadu-Puducherry axis where it is contesting polls in alliance with the DMK and the combine is in the reckoning to win elections.
From the Congress’ organisational point of view in the face of a rebellion, the subtle manoeuvre can be judged by the manner in which the election campaign has been organised particularly in terms of who is calling the shots. To the utter chagrin of the rebel leaders, none of them including those figuring in the star-campaigners list have been pressed into election duty.
Clearly, the subtlety at work is glaringly reflected in former Congress president, Rahul Gandhi and AICC general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra leading the charge from the front. Although she had confined herself only to Uttar Pradesh of which she is the party in charge, Mrs Vadra has surprised everyone by taking to campaigning in Assam and the southern poll bound states particularly Kerala.
What does this plan entail for them and the party in the long run? There are many within the Congress who still believed that the party has still been gripped by confusion which could be inferred by the shoddy election management, and that the Gandhi siblings are though acting in tandem or working in isolation.
The confusion part is not entirely untrue as it has become the Congress’ hallmark. But it is hard to believe that Rahul and Priyanka are acting without any plan. Yes, part one of the plan is to ensure the party’s victory in Assam and Kerala which, both in terms of victory or loss, have great bearing on their as well as the Congress’ future. There is definitely a wider plan to establish their supremacy in the party, and what better way to lead the party to electoral victory and in turn silent the critics or the rebels who have been questioning Mr Gandhi’s efficacy and style of functioning.
The first family of the Congress is taking a huge risk with Rahul-Priyanka duo taking upon them to lead the charge without involving other senior and not-too-senior leaders of the party who are all in the supporting role. Are they so confident of victory or will they own the responsibility in case of another electoral debacle? Well, in the ultimate analysis the credit for victory would certainly go to them, but one wonders who will be held responsible for the loss.
As the indications are Congress led UDF and the CPM-led LDF in Kerala are tied in a tough contest. Since the state has the tradition of the two combines alternatively coming to power, it was the UDF chance this time. However, initially it was being felt that the LDF under chief minister, Pinarayi Vijayan could break this tradition, but the gradual developments mainly the sustained campaign by Rahul and Priyanka and a semblance of unity among the local leaders, has resulted in Congress recouping.
A similar situation prevails in Assam where Congress is giving a tough fight to the ruling BJP. This is on account of the fact that the party could strike local alliances well in time and without any confusion and persistence of Rahul- Priyanka team in their election campaign.
Notwithstanding the outcome of these elections, the message is loud and clear that the Congress is ready to chart its future course without being bullied or blackmailed by anyone. At the same time both of them have adopted a conciliatory tone towards the old guard as well and a sample of this was the two highlighting the large number of younger candidates that the party has fielded, the emerging youth force, and at the same time praising wisdom of the experienced leaders.
These elections will also set the course for opposition unity to take on the might of the Narendra Modi-led BJP as has been indicated by Trinmool Congress chief and West Bengal chief minister Ms Mamta Banerjee, in her letter written to leaders of other opposition parties. And equally important is the fact that despite Congress having formed an electoral alliance with the Left parties to take on the BJP and Trinmool Congress, both Mr Gandhi and Mrs Vadra seem to have no plans to campaign for their party in West Bengal.
It clearly seems to be a ploy to keep Ms Banerjee in good humour. There is a strong school of thought that believes that decision of the Congress not to align with Trinmool Congress and instead go with the Left, was part of the strategy to not leave the entire opposition space to BJP, and also to keep their respective vote banks intact which in the case of an opposition alliance could have withered and grabbed by the BJP.
It would be naive to say that the Rahul-Priyanka combine have plunged headlong into the electoral arena without any strategy. And that they have courted huge risk given the pathetic state of affairs in the Congress. This risk is worth taking rather than remaining dormant.
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