Prof (Dr) R D Gupta
Climate change scenarios for 2030 indicate an overall warming over the Indian subcontinent with increasing the annual mean surface air temperature by 1.7 to 2.0 degree Celsius. Coastal areas are likely to witness maximum increase in temperature while winters are expected to get warmer. India may endure flood 30 percent more severe in magnitude and heightened drought conditions by 2030, which may affect crop yield, damage to dams and harm infrastructures. Frequency of droughts has already increased especially in the Himalayan region including Jammu and Kashmir where the degree of severity had increased by more than 20 percent since the 1970s.
As against the normal day temperature ranging from 5 to 7 degree Celsius in Srinagar (Jammu and Kashmir State) during January for the last few years, the temperatures have soared to 14 or 15 degree Celsius. On the other hand in Jammu, the day temperatures have dipped down to 13 to 14 degree Celsius as against the normal average of 18 to 20 degrees. These abnormally higher temperatures have reduced the crop yields. For each degree Celsius rise in temperature above average, farmers can expect 10 percent decline in yields of rice, wheat and maize.
Now all these facts put together point out towards a serious threat to food production sector of the State. Kashmir Valley based environmentalists/agriculturalists believe that abnormal rise in temperatures in particular can prove drastic for some of our native plants increasing their sterility and hence lowering the overall production.
Researches conducted by agriculture scientists further indicated that place like Kashmir which is a prime exporter of food, especially fruits is facing a likely situation of slipping into a condition of food insecurity. Over the last few years our food imports have considerably risen. This particularly applies to food grains, vegetables and other food commodities.
‘‘Food insecurity as such has never come to spotlight in a place like Kashmir, which has always been perceived to be food resources sufficient. For the last few years with the climate change, there is dismal production of paddy every year, and farmers of many areas of valley are adopting horticulture. As a matter of fact, Kashmir which used to produce sufficient agriculture produce like rice or wheat is now meagerly producing these cereals and if the change of climate continues at the same pace, Kashmir will very soon be importing every bit of the food, which the people of Kashmir will consume from the neighbouring States. Some of the peasants of Kashmir valley say ‘‘We are converting our paddy fields into apple orchards as this is economically more viable. The abnormally high temperature in spring and autumn seasons when the paddy crop is cultivated and harvested, respectively, has affected the quantity and quality of crop, thus affecting our returns”.
There is a real danger of loss of food security of more than 4 million people dwelling in vulnerable karewa areas and enclaves like Uri, Gurez, Karnah, Drass, Leh and Kishtwar and Doda areas in case of failure of fruits and food grains.
The problems of the climate change that we are discussing to day of many parts of Jammu & Kashmir including Kandi belt of Jammu, are witnessing in the form of droughts, floods and snow storms. Unseasonal rain fall during the year 2004 was the hall mark as far as the farming community of Jammu division is concerned. The disastrous track for the peasants was started in the second quarter of 2004 when in April they suffered a loss of nearly Rs 500-600 millions (50-60 crores) due to unseasonal rains during April, 2004 in wheat crop. In Jammu district alone 44,000 ha area of harvested wheat was destroyed due to heavy unseasonal rains. In other districts destruction of such an area was to the extent of 16,000 ha in Rajouri, 5,000 ha each in Kathua and Udhampur, 4,000 ha in Doda and 8,000 ha in Poonch. The farmers had already suffered badly due to drought situations occurred during 2001 to 2004 i.e four consecutive years.
The temperature in Kashmir valley hovered around 25 to 26 degree Celsius since second fort night of May, 2007 which was 7 degree below normal. At this point of time, the valley should have been experiencing temperature ranging some where close to 32 to 33 degrees Celsius. This fluctuating temperature has reduced agriculture yield in Kashmir by 30 percent.
As most of the agriculture land of Jammu region is un-irrigated and mostly depends upon monsoon rains for cultivation, so less rainfall in last some couple of years (more so during 2009 and 2011) has resulted in farmer’s distress. Their hopes were shattered as with the shattering of clouds from the sky. During the year 2009, the monsoons were delayed and erratic, and reached the region after 20th July and also earlier withdrawal from the region. Due to these reasons, the farmers could not sow maize in about 2,6163 ha area. They were also unable to transplant paddy in about 14,308 ha.
It is concluded from the foregoing facts that the future climate and its impact could well trigger bloody wars fought over access to basic necessities like drinking water and food grains. The change of climate is causing melting of glaciers which are precious reservoirs of clean water. It would not only destroy world’s fresh water reservoirs but is also projected to cause droughts, floods, erode coastlines as sea levels would rise, reduce the area of arable land, adversely impact fish and food stocks and trigger large movement of populations to safer areas. Climate refugees would face hostility from local residents and this could lead to conflict. Large scale migration and competition for food resources could become a serious security challenge. Climate change has made it clear that its change is happening largely because of human activity.
Certain measures are required to be taken to overcome this problem which include creation of laws; desilting, growing of pulses, millets and adoption of agroforestry.
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