Dr. Neeraj Sharma
Climate patterns have altered and the evidences reveal trends of marked seasonal fluctuations, extreme weather events, aberrant precipitation, forest and agricultural shifts, disease outbreaks, water stress, food insecurity etc. The impacts of climate change are particularly worrying for the Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir as the region is ecologically highly fragile and encompass vivid livelihood based natural resources. The potential implications of these climatic changes are enormous, not only from the perspective of ecological degradation but also with regards to the regional development. Economic activities such as tourism, agriculture and horticulture are very sensitive to climatic conditions. Climate change also threatens vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support livelihoods.
Broadly, the state of Jammu and Kashmir comprises three distinct climatic regions: cold arid desert areas of Ladakh, temperate Kashmir valley, and the humid sub-tropical region of Jammu. The extreme variants of climate in Jammu and Kashmir are due to its location and topography. Every thousand feet of elevation brings some new phase of climate and the vegetation and this gap shortens further as one go up. In the south around Jammu, the climate is typically monsoonal, with very heavy though erratic rainfall up to 650 millimetres received during July – August. Across the Pir Panjal range, the South Asian Monsoon is no longer a factor and most precipitation (about 85 mm) falls in the spring from southwest cloud bands. Beyond the main Himalayan range, even the southwest cloud bands break up thus rendering the climate of Ladakh and Zanskar extremely dry and cold. Annual precipitation is only around 100 mm per year with very low humidity and temperature dipping to even – 50o C at some places. The climate of the valley of Kashmir has its own peculiarities. The seasons are marked with sudden change and the climate can be divided into six seasons of two months each. Some parts of Jammu, like Kashmir Valley, are also subjected to snowfall and severe winter. Marked with typical rain shadow effect, owing to its location towards leeward side of the Great Himalayas, Ladakh exhibits character of both arctic and desert climate.
In the given context, though the values of climate change variables may seem to be falling within tolerance limits at present, yet at micro level the changes are not only perceptible but significant enough to perturb the delicate intricacies of ecosystems. The state being the repository of rich biological diversity, the impending consequences of the climate change shall have the significant ecological implications. The lives of the people and sustainability of their communities in Jammu and Kashmir more or less depend upon their resilience to climate change. Temperature fluctuations, declining availability of water, food insecurity are few of the major concerns being confronted by Himalayan states.
Considerable fluctuations have been observed in seasonal and weather patterns over the last few years in the state with prolonged heat dry spells, less and intense winters, fluctuating rain / snow precipitation etc. The seasonal patterns over the last two decades have lost their distinctiveness particularly in Kashmir valley. The frequency and intensity of snowfall has drastically altered in last few years. Unusual summer snow at lower altitude is another dimension of climatic aberrations. The autumn has virtually shortened its extent in the sub-temperate belt of Jammu. Prolonged summers of 2010, extended western disturbances of 2011 etc. are all but attributed to climatic aberrations. The extreme weather events like cloud bursts, flash floods, snow tsunamis, heat waves, wind storms etc. that struck all the three regions of the state in recent years has invited a lot of debate on the changing scenarios of local climate.
The prevailing climatic scenario in the state is all set to bring marked deviation in spatial distribution of biodiversity, and the signs have already commenced. There are few signs of expansion in temperate deciduous cool mixed, and conifer forests at the cost of alpine pastures which are likely to shrink. Temperate deciduous forests in the lower limits are likely to be replaced by evergreen warm mixed forests. The socio-economically important species like Deodar, Fir and Oak may decline in their extent, whereas the Blupine and Chirpine forests are likely to expand further.
Being located near the mountain tops, alpine species are highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations. The species composition and structure and functioning of alpine meadows (Margs) are going to change both because of increased temperatures and loss of snow. One of the major consequences of increased temperatures is going to be the change in crop selection and increase in the altitudinal range of cultivated land. One of the horticultural crops perceived most vulnerable to the deviating weather cycles is Apple. The apple belt in Himachal Pradesh and J & K is shifting upwards due to decreasing chilling hours and increasing temperature from November to March. The cherry, walnut, peach, pear and plum crops are also exposed to aberrant flowering patterns, diseases, low yield, early ripening etc. In addition, the major concerns for the forest ecosystems are those related to the spread of Invasive Alien Species like Parthenium, Lanatana, Ageratum etc., decreasing tree density and forest fragmentation.
There would be drastic changes in the life style of several animals living in alpine areas. In a warming world, a species in alpine ecosystem might be faced with very different conditions, including different competitors, predators and food base. The unusual trends of winter migration of birds in the wetlands of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh may be primarily attributed to changing weather and seasonal patterns across the region.
The declining surface water flow and diminishing ground water availability is pertinently attributed to shrinking glacial extents. Many of the glaciers in Ladakh and Kashmir Himalayas have receded significantly in the last one decade. The dwindling glaciers apart from being responsible for increasing water deficit in the plains are imprinting a negative influence on tourist industry as well, as a number of tourists being attracted to the state aspire for adventure tourism. The implications of impacts at the origin of water sources are virtually felt downstream with many of major river systems and streams have been observed carrying less water especially during lean period. The most vulnerable to this scarcity is the agriculture sector, which is mostly dependent upon the surface water irrigation.
The pronounced effect of climatic fluctuations is evident from the shrinking fresh water lakes especially in the valley owing to eutrophication. Lake Dal in the valley and Lake Sanasar near Patnitop, Jammu are left with very little hope of survival. Lake Wular, Manasbal, Hoker Sar, Surinsar, Mansar, Garana wetlands, the designated aquatic protected areas of the state are slowly shrinking. The age old village / community ponds scattered in Kandi belt have virtually dried owing to less rainfall, degraded watersheds and less water recharging.
The associated tangible losses are usually compensated politically or materially, but the intangible losses leave long lasting scars on the life support systems, may it be the nature dependent agriculture sector, local biodiversity or other intricate components of environment. It is therefore imperative that the Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir takes action to address the implications of climate change. A multidisciplinary approach at government, societal and individual level is required to nullify the effects of climate change.
(The author is Assistant Professor, IME, University of Jammu, Bhaderwah Campus. E-mail: nirazsharma @gmail.com)
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