Brij Bhardwaj
BJP is expected to set a record by coming to power for a second term in Uttar Pradesh. For a long time no party has returned to power in U.P. This was the case with Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati and the same was repeated with Samajwadi Party. As such there were serious doubts about BJP’s ability to do so even though they had won over three hundred seats in State Assembly with a strength of 403 in 2017, and had improved their performance in Lok Sabha polls which followed in 2019.
The factors working against BJP were farmers agitation against farm laws which lasted for over a year, and efforts by Samajwadi Party to stitch up an alliance with many regional parties who had the support of many sub-castes. The BJP also suffered when many Ministers and leaders of backward community left BJP on eve of elections and joined the Samajwadi Party. Akhilesh Yadav, leader of the Samajwadi Party also drew huge crowds at public rallies.
The Congress Party, under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi tried to woo voters by giving a new slogan “Larki hun Lar Sakti Hun” and promising 40 per cent tickets to women candidates in the polls. She also promised scooters, lap tops and special allowances to girl students. Issue of lack of jobs, stray cattle menace and atrocities against backwards and Harijans were made into a poll issue by the Opposition parties. But on completion of fourth phase of polling it seems that the BJP is ahead.
The poll issue raised by BJP which appealed to voters was better law and order and action taken by State Government against Mafia gangs. The second issue, which had appeal was free ration given by State Government and Centre to poor for the last few months. The Centre also helped by announcing withdrawal of farm laws. It was also found that impact of farmers agitation was limited to western U.P only and Central, Eastern U.P and area of Avadh was not affected by it.
BJP’s huge lead in 2017 made the task of Samajwadhi Party difficult as they had won 45 seats only. BJP can afford to loose 100 seats and still get a majority in State Assembly, while Samajwadi Party even if they win hundred more seats will be short of majority by a long margin. Congress has not made much headway in the absence of any organisation at ground level. Plus many senior leaders of the party deserted them on eve of polls. Some went to BJP while others joined Samajwadi Party.
Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi may have prepared ground for Lok Sabha polls in 2024 but will not win many seats in the State Assembly elections. Another factor is performance of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. She carried out a low-key campaign, holding few public rallies, and avoiding media, but managed to retain her core base. She has also cut into some minority votes by putting up many Muslim candidates in key constituencies.
BJP has also been able to retain its support of High Caste Hindus, plus appeal to Hindu voters by its record of building Ram temple in Ayodhya and promising to build another in Mathura. Its motivated cadre, ample resources and appeal as double engine Government being in power in State as well as in Centre won them votes. The appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the most popular leader in the country has also worked in its favour. Agreed that in current polls BJP may not get over three hundred seats in Assembly but will not be short of majority. Samajwadi Party will do much better as compared to 2017 but will find the climb to majority mark difficult. As for Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party, they will fight for third and fourth position.
BJP will be comfortable in what has been described as semi-final before the Lok Sabha poll in 2024. What happens in states of Punjab, Uttrakhand, Goa and Manipur will be of little impact as prize is U.P.
Follow our WhatsApp channel
