Poonam I Kaushish
The old order changeth, yielding place to new, with the BJP being Modi-fied, marking the end of the Vajpayee-Advani era. After months of Hamletian ‘should-he-or-should-he-not-be dilly-dallying, the BJP, finally anointed its charismatic vote-catcher Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi its Prime Ministerial candidate four days ahead of his birthday today (September 17) Marking a new epoch for the Bhakti, Jagran Party as it maneouvers the steep boulder ridden road for India’s Raj gaddi. Will Narender Modi be the Party’s Ram or Ravan?
To his credit, Modi has won three terms as Gujarat’s CEO. But it remains to be seen if he will be accepted as a national leader. Questionably, will his past impact his future? Will his “serve Mother India” slogan resonate in other parts of the country? Can he unify Gen X who has lost patience with the UPA’s dithering governance? Uplift the Party from being a ‘B’ Team of the Congress. Or will he polarise votes on community lines? Remember, his foray during the Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka Assembly elections came a cropper.
Undeniably, Modi remains BJP’s most formidable, no-nonsense, tough leader but he continues to have many detractors within the Party as without. Patriarch Advani’s no show at his one-time protégé’s coronation was telling. The ageing leader, whose “inner conscience” prevented him from supporting Modi, forecast “political disaster”. Yet Gen Next leaders who Advani had nurtured thumbed their noses at their mentor who catapulted the Party from 2 MPs in 1984 to 88 in 1989.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan absence at the Party’s Parliamentary Board meeting was noticed, given that he preferred Modi’s anointment post the Assembly polls as he did not want the electorate to polarize on communal lines. Leader of Opposition Sushma Swaraj made a blink-appearance-hasty exit.
True, certain quarters within the BJP believe it can reap the electoral harvest given the peoples’ discontent with the scam-ridden Congress-led UPA. And no-nonsense and clean Modi has the where-with-all to energise the cadre, demoralised by the leadership’s failure to cash in on Manmohan Singh Government’s image deficit.
His presence would help polarise the cadres and consolidate the Hindutva brigade. Even as he is feted for his administrative skills and development record his dictatorial attitude, arrogance, inflexibility on issues and tough image, in-experience outside Gujarat and 2002 communal taint have left him friendless in quarters that count thereby making it difficult for him to breach the national Capital.
He is scarcely seen as a leader who can prove a magnet for potential allies with the polity sharply divided along the secular-communal line. Making it virtually impossible for the Gujarat Chief Minister to gain the confidence of the minority community. And this in turn will act as a drag on his attempts to emerge as a credible leader on the national scene.
As he spearheads the BJP’s campaign, his ability as a vote-catcher will unfold in the results of the forthcoming Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi Assembly polls. Besides, he would have to surmount intrigues within the Party, oust the Congress in 2014 general elections, and reach the magical 272 MPs number in the Lok Sabha to form the next Government? Can he become a magnet for potential allies before hoping to become Prime Minister?
Highly unlikely. In 2009 it managed to net only 116 Lok Sabha seats compared to Congress 206. Think. In four Southern States which account for 150 Lok Sabha seats (Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh 42, Tamil Nadu 39, Orrisa 21, Karnataka 28 and Kerala 20) at best the Party to gain some in Karnataka and Orissa.
In the seven North East States and West Bengal which total 67 it would draw a blank unless it allies with Assam Gano Parishad and the Trinimool. Also, given that Muslims votes which account for 15 per cent vote-share could tilt the electoral scales in nearly 200 seats, the polity is sharply divided along the secular-communal line.
The only silver lining lies in the Hindu heartland comprising UP, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar where the BJP could strike rich if it plays its cards right. The three States alone account for 174. Add to it Maharashtra’s 48 and Gujarat 26 the number totals 248.
For Modi, it is a catch-22 situation. While he would like to maintain his Hindu strongman branding without actually harping on it, this image continues to stand in the way of his national aspirations. That also explains why he has been talking of amity and unity for India’s development. He realizes that national elections are increasingly turning into aggregates of State polls in an era of coalition politics.
Pertinently, several Parties are experts at switching between the NDA and the UPA, with bouts of equi-distance. Namely, Trinamool, DMK, AIDMK, NC, LJP, JMM et al. It all depends on whether the BJP can net 200 seats in the Lok Sabha poll and the alternative that emerges post polls. The backing of the Shiv Sena and Punjab’s SAD is not enough. Hard reality has a way of papering over any queasiness our netagan might have as they strive to safeguard their survival and significance to share power.
Also, other regional satraps like AIADMK Purathhathalvi Jayalalithaa who acknowledges Modi as a friend, but the Party cannot count on her support. BJD’s Naveen Patnaik is dicey while TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and Trinamool’s Mamata might not want to support a Modi-led NDA for fear of alienating the minorities.
NCP’s Sharad Pawar also shares a good chemistry with Modi but this might not translate in to an electoral understanding. Another spoiler could be from within. If both Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Chattisgarh’s Raman Singh perform hat-tricks in their respective States they would be on equal footing with Modi. Needless to say it would be a long haul for the BJP to scout for fresh allies
But the task becomes onerous for the “Party with a Difference”. Undeniably, the “M”Factor alongside the recent Muzaffarnagar riots have heavily polarised the electorate, especially in UP. Indeed for the first time the district has witnessed a Jat-Muslim riots wherein it seemed that both the Samajwadi-BJP used it as a testing ground for their respective vote banks — Muslims and Hindus. Additionally, if communal sentiment persists till elections and results in voting on communal lines, India’s political landscape could change for the worse.
Having raised expectations sky high with his pledges to take India down a path of corruption free development it remains to be seen whether Modi can deliver, how much and how it will impact his future if he fails. Like his mentor-turned dissident Advani, NaMo would do well to realize that in the ever-changing political kaleidoscope, power is ephemeral, here today, gone tomorrow. He too is not infallible. His order shall also give way to another if he can’t attain political nirvana for the Ram Bhakts! In to the dustbin of history. —– INFA
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