Col Satish Singh Lalotra
‘Clever move, playing Chinese whispers with all the answers. So you never lied and I never heard the truth’—-Sindhu.
Breaking the military deadlock at ‘Gogra-Hotsprings’ in Ladakh has been the single biggest breakthrough in the proverbial ‘Gordian knot’ of Sino-Indian military standoff triggered since May 2020. The mutual verification of the coordinated pullback of the rival troops accompanied by the dismantling of temporary structures erected near the ‘Kugrang Nala’ was concluded between the rival commanders recently. The ‘No patrolling buffer zone’ now in place in the PP-15 area is the 4th one to be concluded in eastern Ladakh since May 2020. The earlier ones varied from 3 kms to 10 kms and existing at PP-14(Galwan valley), PP-17A (Gogra), and Pangong Tso -Kailash range in 2020-21. But to most China watchers and the general populace as such, the 16 th round of negotiations between the rival commanders to thaw the Himalayan freeze is fraught with numerous intangibles having the potential of turning the Sino-Indian apple cart. It has to be borne in the mind by all China -baiters that this nation formerly known as the ‘Nation of opium eaters’ still assiduously follows the age old tenets of its master strategist ‘Sun Tzu’ to the hilt. All the actions undertaken by China very guardedly follow these strategic tenets, couched in a language /action which seem to be a red herring for most of us.
But for China what mattered hundreds of years ago and even today is the protection of it’s so called ‘Core interest’, many times at the cost of other nations core interests. This separates the core Chinese philosophy from other countries while negotiating the Geo -political turbulence worldwide. It has to be understood by all that China is one of those expansionist powers which does not wait long to pull all available levers at its command in order to achieve its own interests. As a precursor to the shape of things which may emerge in future, Chinese President XI Jinping in April this year during the annual ‘Boao forum’ proposed a ‘Global security initiative’ (GSI) based on the famous principle of ‘indivisible security’. The Chinese presidential speech hinted for the first time a ‘Global security initiative’ laced with Chinese characteristics. Since it lacked many details hence it left much to be desired. Be that as it may, there are solid reasons why Beijing has chosen this particular year to proffer its’ GSI concept’ in totality.
With the world presently mired in multidimensional crisis ranging from the health and economic /fiscal traumas unleashed by the pandemic of COVID-19 as also Russian involvement via armed intervention in Ukraine showing no possibility of thawing of relations between the two warring nations, the clincher was the meeting of QUAD (Quadrilateral security dialogue) slated in May this year between Australia, India, US and Japan. In fact the principle of ‘Indivisible security’ comes in from the 1975 ‘Helsinki final act’ when the participating countries of the Euro-Atlantic bloc indicated a willing ness to sustain peace, primarily based on the fact that no country can strengthen its security at the expense of others. The principle emphasized the benefits of cooperation by nation states while highlighting the opposite too—‘That insecurity in one nation state affects the welfare of all other states too’. The state of Russia too considers this principle of ‘Indivisible security’ as the corner stone of a country’s foreign policy outreach and cites the invasion of Ukraine as one of the root causes(violation of Indivisible security) for the utter conflagration which Ukraine finds itself in today. For China this principle has different connotations, which goes along with its stated policy of pursuing it’s so called ‘Core interests’ thereby establishing its global leadership. China has consistently highlighted the joint military cooperation cum exercises between the Anglo -American bloc as ‘Agent provocateur’ while indicating China’s own willingness to respect the security concerns of other nation states as well as observe the purpose and principles of the UN charter.
The principle of ‘Indivisible security’ has been the sine quo non of the Chinese ‘GSI’ concept to help it springboard global ambitions of super power influence. Readers may be well aware that in the mid 1950s China had again shown the same propensity of ‘Indivisible security’ concerns when US along with Turkey and Pakistan came together to form SEATO and CENTO (South east Asian treaty organization and central treaty organization) pacts or blocs . That time it crossed the so called proverbial Himalayan hurdle to shake hands with India and form the famous ‘Panchsheel pact’ in 1954/55 which had this concept of ‘indivisible security’ at its heart. But then behind the thin veneer of this pact China didn’t stop its gargantuan appetite for land grab of India first by cartographic aggression closely followed by actual attack. In fact the territorial ambitions of China in the south China sea(SCS) upsetting all the calculus of the littoral states belies its firm commitment in the concept of indivisible security. It shows the real face of China (warts and all) in all its clarity. If China deems actions by the US and its allies as disregarding of its security concerns in Taiwan, it could invoke the concept to claim moral high ground in retaliation. What a clever move.
Notwithstanding the above, who will remind China of its repeated misdemeanours in relation to its immediate neighbours to include India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar ,Tajikistan of violating their legitimate security concerns and riding rough shod by putting into motion its hegemony by way of expansionism and “Loan for land’ scheme? Now who are the targeted GSI allies? Russia is off course one such ally and trusted friend of China supportive of its GSI initiative. As brought out earlier , China and its neighbouring countries to include Vietnam, Philippines etc are wary of former’s moves having seen its devious machinations by way of expanding the ‘Nine dash line’ as well as creation of artificial islands in the SCS (South china sea). Does China not realize that these actions tantamount to utter disregard to the stated concept of indivisible security as being crowed in its new GSI bloc? China should realize that in its much parroted GSI concept a provision ought to be added to make active concessions to the suffering nations in order to compensate their territorial sovereignty lost under calumny.
The Pacific countries are another target for China’s new security concept. But I suppose more time will be required to bring these countries on board. The African region is another area and a ripe target for the Chinese planners to take them under the fold of its GSI concept, since these countries generally believe in non – interference in others affairs. Moreover both non interference and indivisible security are terms which are interchangeable and co-terminus hence these African countries are easy to find their way to GSI thinking. But in actuality if China really wants to jack up GSI concept as globally acceptable and approving with a high value and high dividend generating power bloc then charity has to begin from home i.e south Asian countries /region which is closest to its economic and military interests. In particular India with 1.4 Billion strong population, unlike African countries which is a disparate conglomeration of nations. A nation with a purchasing power parity set to overtake UK, Germany and France combined by 2024 as well as a GDP of 8 to 9 %, India is a rising regional power unfortunately hamstrung with its border disputes as well as China’s stated position on Pakistan and Kashmir. The concept of Indivisible security is not new ,but by proposing the GSI power bloc China is showing that it has proactively given a new twist to the resolution of multidimensional crisis facing our planet. China sees this as an opportunity. Not to forget that their master strategist SUN TZU who advocated in his Principles of war’—In crisis lies opportunity ‘must be smiling in his grave for unleashing this new world order GSI Power bloc by his progeny . Whatever future may hold for this Chinese concept, it is crystal clear that China cannot make much head way in perpetuating global hegemony without first taking countries like India, Russia and the like along with its south Asian counterparts in its confidence.
(The writer is a retired army officer)
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