Col J P Singh, Retd
On Nawaz Sharif’s election as Pak Premier third time, I had opined that this provides a tremendous opportunity to New Delhi to resolve outstanding issues and reboot the vexed Indo-Pak relationship. Over last six decades, Kashmir dispute had held both India and Pakistan hostage. My optimism came from the understanding that having become a nuclear power, the new Govt will like Pakistan to grow economically and its over stretched and fatigued army would like to go to barracks. Moreover Nawaz Sharif was heard talking a lot about peace and friendship with India. He committed himself to resolve Kashmir dispute bilaterally. He extended his hand of friendship with adequate warmth which invoked the spirit of Lahore Declaration. Dr. Singh reciprocated with the same spirit. Meeting of minds of two PMs was seen as a most welcome development. We saw a ray of hope emanating from the same soil from where the terrorism was being unleashed on us. Considering Sharif a matured politician and peace loving Dr. Manmohan Singh on the other side, it was becoming clear that rapprochement between belligerent nations will usher an era of peace and stability in the sub-continent. Unfortunately the past and present history has different story to tell. It says that past optimisms in bilateral ties with Pakistan were always short lived and often disastrous. Kargil ingress after Lahore Declaration, 26 / 11 after Sharm-el- Sheikh declaration and not too distant past beheading and killings of our soldiers on the LOC despite Nawaz Sharif’s peace overtures. Presently ceasefire violations and infiltration continue unabated. When two premiers were meeting in New York, Indian Army was fighting with 35 to 40 Pak SSG intruders in Keran Sector in Kashmir. This and other infiltration attempts in the valley before the snowfall indicate troubled future ahead. Hence peace mission New York turned to be a bogey because the much publicised meeting looked like a magic wand to show that Pakistan is a peace loving country.
As the euphoria of meeting of two PMs was building up, we saw worst ever beheading of our soldiers in Mendhar followed by similar killings in Poonch. Still worse was attack on Hiranagar Police Station and Samba Military Station in J&K on 26 September, killing officers, men, police personnel and innocent civilians. Hiranagar-Samba attacks and reported occupation of an LOC village Shalabhato and four other Indian posts in Keran sector at the time of meeting of two PMs have dampened my hope. Meeting looked totally formal rather than meaningful. Most of my pessimism is driven from the fact that no joint press briefing was held after the very first meeting of two premiers. No time table was announced for resumption of composite dialogue. Dr. Singh is believed to have made it clear to his counterpart that peace on LOC and action against perpetrators of Mumbai attack are prerequisites for resumption of dialogue. The only outcome of the meet, to my mind is likelihood of occasional meeting of DGMOs to handle frequent ceasefire violations.
Taking the events of Hiranagar-Samba and Kargil type ingress in Keran as a serious threat to peace and stability of J&K, Ex-servicemen (ESM) of Jammu held a massive rally in Baru Resorts on 29 September 2013 where they pledged to offer their services to the Govt of J&K in thwarting nefarious Pak designs of destabilising J&K. ESM from far and wide participated in large numbers. Gen (Retd) G S Jamwal presented memorandums to Madan Lal Sharma, MP and Divisional Commissioner Jammu who were the invitees in the function. This Sadbhavna rally happened when ESM all over India are agitating against the UPA Govt for its reluctance to give them their legitimate dues. It was unprecedented in many ways because the ESM of J&K realise the difficulties of State Govt in thwarting nefarious designs of belligerent neighbour. They volunteered to form Village Defence Committees (VDC) which had been disbanded after restoration of peace in Jammu region. Had the VDCs been active, the terrorists would not have gone past un-noticed and unchallenged. It is hoped that the state govt takes the cue and revives VDCs to check such incidents in future. VDCs will strengthen intelligence and security grid and make civilians security conscious. ESM VDCs will be a great force multiplier with least cost to the exchequer.
The lessons of past are bitter and fresh in Indian memory. We find military tangle attached to the entire saga of Indo-Pak ties since partition. The peace dividend that would flow from settlement of ‘K’ issue as per the Simla Agreement will be of immense value not only to both the countries and their people but to the entire sub-continent where terrorism is ruling the roost. This is not being understood by Pak Army. We know as much as these seasoned PMs know that resolution of Kashmir dispute and growth in bilateral relations hinges around peace and tranquillity on the borders. And all of us know that Pak Army is not under control of the civilian govt. Hence peace and tranquillity on the borders will continue to be nightmarish no matter how often the DGMOs meet. After becoming PM third time, Sharif has done nothing to strengthen ceasefire agreement. Nor has he done anything to restore the breach of trust. Composite dialogue remained paralysed since beheading of Indian soldiers. We are nowhere near its resumption even after the recent meeting of two premiers. Memories of premier Vajpayee’s February 1999 Lahore bus journey is still fresh in Indian mind. It had the potential of changing the course of history. But the agenda was hijacked by Nawaz Sharif’s Army Chief who perpetrated Kargil. The golden opportunity turned out to be an irreparable tragedy. Similarly when hopes for peace were emanating from New York, present Pak Army Chief was trying mini Kargil in Keran Sector. Trusting Sharif without certain assurances from Pak Army Chief would be a mistake. Howsoever sincerely Nawaz Sharif and Dr. Singh might wish to improve relations, Pak Army and ISI will not allow peace and tranquillity on the LOC. Hence it will remain a tight rope walk for Nawaz Sharif and a diplomatic nightmare for Dr. Singh.
It is still not widely known in our country and probably in Pakistan too that Jammu and Kashmir which was founded by Maharaja Gulab Singh by the mid of nineteenth century is by no means a homogeneous entity. It consists of five distinct regions based upon geography, history, ethnicity, religion and culture. They are (i) Northern Areas comprising of Gilgit-Baltistan, substantial portion of which has been ceded to China by Pakistan; retaining the rest illegally. (ii) Mirpur-Muzaffarabad region, under Pakistan occupation since 1 January 1949 named ‘Azad Kashmir’. (iii) Ladakh region comprising of Leh and Kargil, (iv) Kashmir Valley and (v) Jammu region. Latter three are in India. These regions are also distinctly different from each other in ethnicity, languages and culture. Quite clearly the Kashmir issue is confined to Kashmir Valley alone where Kashmiri language is spoken and that is what Pakistan is exploiting. People living in other four regions have their own culture and aspirations, quite divergent from the valley. Simplistic phrase ‘Kashmir’ with which whole J&K is generally referred to is unrealistic and misleading. It does not mean J&K. Kashmir bogey is therefore mischievous and misleading. India need to clarify it to the world.
Despite fanfare of its free and fair election, Pak still lacks basic elements of true democracy and remains profoundly a feudal society with all its internal problems that such societies face. Has Nawaz Sharif brought to Pakistan a genuine democracy and peace with India? No; is the answer. Having promised a lot to India including resolution of ‘K’ issue and improving upon bilateral trade, he is in a dilemma because all this looks too good to be true. Moreover Army continues to play an important role in Pak foreign policy particularly in its relations with India as does its spy agency ISI, known for its links with Jihadi groups, and both are not under his control.
Talks with Pakistan can never be un-quantified. They can only be means to an end without any prejudice to other means. We must have a cerebral and holistic policy framework for Pakistan within which different initiative, including coercive and punitive, are used in a calibrated manner with due clarity and planning. India which is located in the most troubled neighbourhood of the world like Israel, is still to devise such foreign policy. At this critical juncture all Indians and Pakistanis including their Armies should appreciate the dividends of peace and good neighbourly relations at every level. They should make sincere efforts to resolve all outstanding issues between them. If we don’t do it fast, we shall be subjecting coming generations, yet unborn, to constant poverty, deprivations and the threat of nuclear annihilation. I do hope and pray that initiative taken by Dr. Singh and Nawaz Sharif will gain momentum as he digs his heels in Pakistan and we elect a new govt in Delhi early next year.
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