Brij Bhardwaj
Indian democracy is fascinating, elections are even more amazing because of the variety and different scenarios they present. The three states where elections concluded on Dec 8 and counting took place on Dec’09 presented different sets of conclusions, different results and were won by different political parties. While elections in Gujarat broke all records in terms of number of seats won, the descimation of a political party which had come close to winning in previous poll and virtual elimination of third party which made enough noise even to make deaf sit up and notice..
BJP not only won the home State of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but established a record in term of winning 156 seats out of a total of 182 and a vote share of 53 per cent. On the other hand Congress which had won 77 seats in 2017 poll was reduced to 17 and will not be able to qualify as a opposition party having won less than 10 per cent of seats. The AAM ADMI party which not only declared that they will form the Government by winning but declared the name of future Chief Minister could win only five seats.
This happened despite the fact that ruling BJP had changed three chief Ministers during its term and had dropped many sitting members of State assembly who defied party order and contested as independent candidates. The victory in Gujarat is result of simple fact that Gujarat status and identity is now closely associated with Prime Minister who with help of Union Home Minister Amit Shah were able to defy the incumbency of seven terms during which they have ruled the State. Another factor which worked in favour of BJP was the Patidhar community which was annoyed and led state wide movement against the ruling BJP was neutralised and the young patidhar leaders who had joined Congress were back in BJP fold and were contesting elections on BJP tickets.
It is true that Prime Minister was backed by a very powerful election machinery of BJP and top leaders of the party from different States pitched in to run a campaign of type which has never been seen before. It is agreed that BJP may not have won so many seats , if the opposition vote was not divided with the entry of Aam Admi Party in a state where it was direct fight in the past between Congress and BJP. But there is little doubt that margin may have been less but there is no doubt that BJP with a vote share of over fifty per cent would have been clear winner in any situation.
It also indicates that the difference between the State polls and national election is getting sharper . BJP has not been able to win State Assembly polls either in Himachal or in election of Delhi Municipal Corporation. In Himachal Pradesh Congress has won 40 seats while BJP 25 which indicates a comfortable win. But hard fact is that difference in terms of votes polled is only one per cent. Congress gained two per cent vote while BJP lost five per cent making it a close fight. Fight was close in terms of votes polled but large in terms of seats won..
More so Himachal Pradesh has a tradition where every five years a different party is voted to power. It was also at a disadvantage because State employees whose number is large were upset with new pension scheme and there were many rebels in the field. Attempts were made to persuade rebels to withdraw but it did not work. The result a consolation prize for Congress party a win after a long time in a direct contest against BJP in State election.
The third poll was for Delhi Municipal Corporation . The BJP which has been in power for three terms was challenged by Aam Aadmi Party with promise to cleanup Delhi. The BJP claim that they could not clean Capital city because they were denied funds by the Delhi administration.
The Aam Aadmi Party promise to clean up Delhi and make it modern city as double engine model of governance by being in power in Delhi Administration and municipal corporation. Contrary to the impression created by exit polls Aam Aadmi Party could get narrow majority only instead of sweeping the polls. The South NDMC areas were won by Aam Aadmi Party and North and East area were won by BJP.
Congress won few seats only in areas dominated by minority community and areas which were affected by communal riots.
The elections took in a different setup while Gujarat is considered a highly developed and industrialised state, Himachal Pradesh is a hilly state rural in character and agriculture based and Delhi is rich urban state where affluent areas voted for Aam Aadmi Party and poor working class areas voted for BJP.
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