Col B S Nagial (Retd)
China is expected to possess some 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday, as per the report published in TASS on 18 Apr2023. After China establishes her nuclear forte to the extent that it becomes a credible deterrent, she will, in fact, become an independent decision-making centre, a status which the UK and France neither aspired nor acquired.
Precise to say, even with 1500 nuclear warheads, China will still have only about a third of the nuclear weapons that the US and Russia currently have. It is reported that the US currently has about 5,550 nuclear warheads. At the same time, Russia is estimated to have about 6,225 nuclear warheads. Other nuclear powers of the world have nuclear warheads ranging from 150 to 300, such as the UK, France, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, and have maintained mainly a steady number for the purpose of deterrence. But in China’s case, a fundamental shift has been witnessed in its nuclear doctrine.
The Earth burst into the nuclear age on 16 Jul 1945, the day the US tested a new weapon in the New Mexico desert. It was crafted from a tennis-ball-sized plutonium sphere, and the Trinity bomb produced an explosion equivalent to 20,000 tonnes of TNT. Eight decades later, tens of thousands of plutonium and enriched uranium have been created. The global nuclear arsenal stands at about 27,000 bombs. Nine countries probably possess nuclear weapons, while 40 others have access to the materials and technology to make them. From the historical perspective, scientists believe that in the times to come, many countries will have access to nuclear energy within their reach. This popularisation of nuclear science would therefore mean widespread proliferation.
The abrupt increase in Beijing’s nuclear war heads probably arose from the fear that the US, with its several nuclear options and more mature agreements with friendly countries, could overpower China with a preventive nuclear strike. Therefore, Beijing is building more nuclear warheads. New silos are being constructed in the Xinjiang and Gansu provinces. With this, China is initiating steps to safeguard its security by proliferating more nuke warheads to outdo the American air defences and strike the mainland US in case of a nuclear war. Nevertheless, a nuclear war results in nothing more than Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Is China obsessed with seeking nuclear parity with the US if that is the case?
A senior US defence official labelled China’s effort to update, expand, and diversify its nuclear warheads as a rapid build up that is too significant to keep under a veil of secrecy. Beijing has undertaken plans that exceed their previous attempts regarding the capabilities’ scale, numbers, complexity, and technological sophistication. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian disparaged the Pentagon’s report of 30 Nov 2022. He expressed that they have exercised utmost curb in developing nuclear capabilities. And has kept those capabilities at the minimum level required by national security.
This expansion is poised to change China’s traditionally small and mostly land-based arsenal across the board. In addition to silo-based ICBMs, China is building more road-mobile ICBMs and strategic nuclear submarines, even as it introduces air-based nuclear capabilities. The possibility that China could use fissile material produced in civil nuclear facilities to build up its nuclear warhead stockpile has raised further concerns because this would eliminate the most significant constraint on China’s warhead stockpiling capacity. The open-ended nature of this expansion, the abrupt departure from China’s long-standing minimalist nuclear policy, and the lack of any official Chinese confirmation or explanation have all contributed to confusion and suspicions about Beijing’s intentions.
The idea of a war in the nuclear age is a very concerning issue, as the use of nuclear weapons could have catastrophic consequences for the entire world. The destructive power of nuclear weapons is unparalleled, and their use could result in massive loss of life and long-term environmental and economic damage.
Since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, there have been significant efforts by the international community to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is one of the key agreements to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament.
Despite these efforts, several countries still possess nuclear weapons, and there have been instances of nuclear brinkmanship and tensions between nations. The potential for a nuclear war in the current global climate remains a significant concern.
The most important thing to prevent a nuclear war is to ensure that all countries with nuclear weapons adhere to the principles of disarmament and take steps to reduce their nuclear arsenals. Diplomacy, dialogue, and negotiation are critical in addressing international disputes and avoiding using nuclear weapons.
It is also essential to enhance international efforts towards nuclear non-proliferation and to promote a culture of peace and disarmament. Investing in conventional defence capabilities, facilitating conflict resolution and de-escalation, and engaging in dialogue and cooperation are some of the key ways to prevent the outbreak of a nuclear war.
Options before India. For a country which faces a threat from two nuclear-powered countries, i.e. Pakistan and China. India has to respond to threats with counter-threats of nuclear reprisals, thus creating a balance of power. War becomes a senseless act and an instrument of policy. Anyhow extremes should be avoided under all circumstances. The strength of defence only renders peace.
India continues modernising its nuclear arsenal and operationalising the nation’s nuke strategy, traditionally focused on Pakistan only. The attention has been shifted to China as per the report published by the Federation of Americans Scientists (FAS), in 2022. At least four new weapon systems are being developed to replace India’s existing nuclear-capable aircraft, lad-based delivery system and submarine-launched missiles.
India operates eight nuclear-capable systems: two based on aircraft, four land-based ballistic missiles, and two sea-based missiles. At least four more are being developed and will likely be combat-ready very soon. India has about 160 nuclear warheads in its stockpiles and will require more to arm the new missiles. Expanding India’s nuclear forces against China will result in significantly new capabilities being deployed over the next few years. This development could also influence how India views the role of its nuclear weapons against Pakistan.
Conclusion: It is anybody’s guess as to where the widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons and swelling stockpiles will take us. Indeed, there are grounds to fear the arrival of an age of permanent nuclear instability or wars of miscalculations or irrational acts. Two factors are essential to maintain peace and tranquillity, i.e. rationality and restraint. In the long run, disarmament is the only answer to preserve sustainable peace and prosperity worldwide.
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