Col B S Nagial (Retd)
India @75 is at a crossroads. After overcoming a bad phase of economic decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, India has energetically bounced back to perform as the world’s fastest-growing economy. While pessimists may ascribe doubts about this achievement, there is a mood of positivity in the air. Despite much criticism from the different corners, strong fundamentals have been laid to excel, and yes, there is a mood to say, ‘Yes, we can do it’.
After the start of the Ukraine-Russian conflict, the US created an atmosphere to force countries to align with either US or Russia. Was it redux of the Cold War’s Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which saw developing countries refuse to align with the US or USSR? Conceivably, no country in this world is better positioned to respond than India, one of the original protagonists of NAM. India took the stand and condemned Russia for the attack and never sided with the US to impose sanctions against Russia which were motivated by the West led by the US.
Today, India is mature enough to create a balance with nations irrespective of the rationality behind their geopolitics. At the world level, India has shown the way for developing countries to make partners, not friends, to take the development agenda forward. India’s population and economic growth have left India in a very unique position to play an active and constructive role in geopolitics.
Nirupampa Rao writes: “Much as in during (first Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal) Nehru’s time, India’s self-interested foreign policy has earned it many partners and a very few enemies despite worldwide turmoil. It is learning to punch above its weight and displaying newfound confidence. It will not be stopped from asserting its international interests.”(On Fareed Zakaria GPS, CNN, 23 Apr 2023).
In a Der Spiegel Feature, Laura Hoflinger offers a similar view of India rising as a non-aligned power of global import while stressing its economic advancement, including lucrative tech business. Höffinger writes: “In recent years, India has grown ever closer to the West, even though it won’t likely ever become a close ally. The country doesn’t necessarily share all of the West’s values and approaches the world pragmatically in the search for partners rather than friends. But India isn’t harbouring dreams of annexing islands or pushing the US off its throne. And it shares American and European concerns about Chinese dominance in Asia. As such, India’s rise could ultimately transform the world in a way that is more amenable to the West’s vision of the future.”(On Fareed Zakaria GPS, CNN, 23 Apr 2023).
For India, this is a moment to look back as well as look forward. Looking back, one remembers the struggle for independence and the sacrifices made by the people of India. During his first address to the nation from the Red Fort, our first Prime Minister exhorted India to move forward-a tryst with destiny.
Looking forward to the end of this decade, one can imagine the future of India. Indeed, after achieving success in Service and Information Technology, we can look forward to opportunities in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, transport and roadways, women’s emancipation, education, health care etc.
India had a glorious period about one thousand years ago when India’s share of the world’s GDP was around 30%. Subsequently, invaders looted this country’s wealth, and India was the poorest country in the world at the time of independence. India recorded about a 3% growth rate three to four decades after independence. Following liberalisation, India started growing faster once again.
It may be just coincidental. However, it is very proud and satisfying for every Indian that India beat the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest economy in the 75th year of its independence from British colonial rule. This achievement also comes when the UK struggles to bolster it’s tumbling economy and fight the ever-soaring inflation, pushing the cost of living to levels never imagined by the UK, Europe and the West. Economists who have been relentlessly criticising the Indian economy are perplexed that they were unsuccessful in foreseeing Britain’s, and indeed much of, the West’s distresses. Just rewording the saying of French President Emmanuel Macron, the days of copiousness are genuinely over for them. And they could about be commencement for us.
India, left battered, bruised and bleeding by its British rulers in 1947, has progressively ascended to regain that glory of the past which was lost: economic prosperity and clout. It would not be out of the place to repeat that the British colonisation of India was essentially about the economic manipulation, plundering of India and the transference of wealth from India to Britain. On 15 Aug 1947, when the Tricolour replaced the Union Jack, India’s share of the world GDP had fallen from 24.4 % in 1700 AD to merely 3%. Britain thrived while India was strapped into abject poverty.
This Bharat is self-confident and ‘atmanirbhar’, ready to meet challenges and overcome adversities. Crossing the twin milestones of emerging as the world’s fifth-largest and fastest-growing economy is undoubtedly a stupendous achievement for India and Indians. From this point on, we begin our journey on the road to achieving PM Modi’s goal of creating a $5 trillion economy. It can now be said with confidence that India shall cross this milestone too in the next two or three years. It’s happening now.
Where can we go wrong? If we do what we have always done, we will get what we already have always got. To achieve something extra, we have to go the extra mile. There is no dearth of diverse forces in India that hunt for communal or class agendas over and above the needs of Bharat. If India doesn’t address these hostile forces and take strict actions when they raise their heads or voices, then India may get distracted and indulge in useless things. In that case, the Indian youth will dissipate their energies in wasteful actions rather than using this energy to uplift India.
The structural constraints which could obstruct growth in India are a lack of Infrastructure, low levels of entrepreneurship, unemployment, climate change, gender inequality, social conflicts, etc. And if they managed well, they could open new doors of development for India. We Indians share a common culture, geography, history, and only common development encounters would shape the future of India.
I must say the rising India phenomenon is unending. It may not roll out smoothly for reasons beyond our control. But each passing generation is handing over the baton to the next generation, promising to remedy the past while preparing for the future. This way, indeed, we can make India more robust. The world will not be the same as it was just recently. The value of India in this turbulent world would increase substantially in the times to come.
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