By K R Sudhaman
There is jubilation all over in BJP circles and the Indian media after the recent visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to United States, where he got a rousing welcome. This is no doubt a landmark bilateral visit which has laid the foundation for taking Indo-US relations to a new high. India is looking for technology and United States is looking for a large market in a slowing global economy and strained Sino-US relations. It is therefore interesting to note how China sees this Indo-US relations that has been put on high pedestal now in the emerging geo-politics.
No doubt, Indo-US bilateral trade is expected to increase five-fold to $500 billion in the next few years. There will be transfer of technology for manufacture of fighter jet engines, which at the moment India is struggling to make on its own and whole lot of other strategic and economic cooperation including chip manufacture, space, software and movement of personnel for mutual benefit.
This is a sort of economic bilateral cooperation that began between US and China thirty years ago and next thirty years it is going to be India’s turn for the United States to cooperate to protect mutual interests. China was made the Factory of the world and slowly United States and the developed world are dumping it and looking at India to fill the vacuum to create another manufacturing hub as part of the China plus one geo-political strategy to keep the supply chain going uninterrupted. US and advanced countries took advantage of huge Chinese market and cheap labour to shift all its mundane and dirty production during the last 30 years. Now it will be India which will fill the gap to keep the advanced nations economy growing. In the process New Delhi too gets some technology and investments as China got.
While there is celebration about transfer of technology of GE 414 jet engines to India, in reality these engines are not used in top US jet fighter aircraft F35 and F 16. So in a sense it is slightly dated technology, which US is transferring. Nevertheless, India does not have even this technology and to that extent, it will be beneficial to upgrade its nascent aero engine development. So there is some element of mutual benefit. As far as drones are concerned, it is a sale and hence will help US to earn more and create more employment as part of its economic revival strategy. Chips manufacture is going to be only assembly in India and the mutual benefit is loaded more in favour of the United States.
Indian analyst based in China Sumeet Jain is right in saying China is more amused by the growing U.S-India relations rather than being worried. China is apparently amused at what is happening to India. The way China became victim of US machinations by Washington opening its doors to Beijing thirty years back, India is going to be next in line for US to exploit in the next 30 years. But China also feels it has also managed to hoodwink US by getting technology including some hi-tech, which it has been able to successfully copy. This Beijing feels India is not capable of. So China has a sort of condescending view on India and this is the atmosphere that exists in Beijing at the moment with regard to Modi’s visit to Washington, Jain points out adding whatever Chinese leadership perceives, the same thing percolates downwards. Also Chinese views keep changing like weather and like Gujaratis, business interests are uppermost for Chinese as well.
Jain is also of the view nothing comes free in this world. U S is rolling out red carpet to India now mainly to cut to size China, nothing more, nothing less. This, all the three countries are aware of. Of course since 2019, there has been a steady decline in Chinese economy and with emphasis on China plus one US policy to ensure supply chain is not disrupted, India will stand to benefit to some extent.
As far as Sino-Indian relations are concerned, there is mutual distrust at the moment particularly after the Galwan Valley episode in 2020. But Chinese are shrewd businessmen. If US thinks India is now in a bright spot and is the only large economy with huge market growing rapidly at the moment, China would not be far behind to exploit it for its mutual benefit. Since 2019 Chinese exports are down. It has built huge production capacity which are now idling. China too wants to kickstart its economy and the opportunity and market exists only in India with its huge growing middle class.
With US the relations are strained and hence the opportunity of expanding trade is not that encouraging. Europe is in recession and hence only India provided the market for Chinese products. So If US and European countries are looking to India for reviving their economies, so also China and hence it will not be far behind them in mending ways with India to enter into the Indian market including production by Chinese companies for economic sustainability.
India too is clever just as US and China. In the event of a confrontation between China and United States, New Delhi will not fight anybody’s war. It may not remain neutral but it will do things to protect its interests just as it is doing in the case of Russian-Ukraine war. It is maintaining its good relations with its age-old friend Russia as well as United States. It has also been friendly with Ukraine.
China too is not keen to antagonize India, even though it made a tactical error in fomenting trouble in the Galwan valley. Apparently it was an error of judgment on the part of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has in the process has sent a clear message to Xi that Beijing cannot pressurize New Delhi by such actions. Though China feels it has arrived as a superpower, its weaponry is no match to that of United States, which are not only superior but also tested in various wars all over the world. Though there is a war of words, the leadership in China is astute enough not get into a confrontation with United States.
So going forward it is India’s turn to march ahead economically in the next decade or two. So United States and other advanced economies will look up to India for investments and trade. China and Russia too will do the same. India’s oil refining capacity is being stepped up to benefit Russia. It is not merely Apple which is setting up production in India, but also several Chinese mobile and solar companies. It is ultimately business interests that will influence geopolitics. (IPA )
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