Anil Anand
The opposition I.N.D.I.A alliance is still in a formative and fledgling stage, no one can deny. No one can even deny that it will not be an easy task for adjusting, in terms of seats, a weaker partner wherever the other party has a stronghold. The underlying factor behind this uneasy is the battle for supremacy.
That is what was reflected when Madhya Pradesh Congress chief Kamal Nath made an off-the-cuff remark dismissing Samajwadi Party leader’s grouse over seat adjustments in the state assembly election. “Chodiye Akhilesh Vikhelesh ko,” was his retort when asked by a scribe on Samajwadi Party president Mr Akhilesh Yadav complaining about Congress not coming clear on alliance in the state.
Definitely this loose comment was avoidable at a time when the opposition parties are trying to walk the extra mile to forge a formidable alliance against Mr Narendra Modi led BJP with an eye on 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It unnecessarily created unease particularly in Congress-Samajwadi Party relations which has a significant role to play in Uttar Pradesh in the general elections.
However, the Nath-Akhilesh spat has its positives as well!
The episode has again thrown up the question if the I.N.D.I.A alliance is meant only for Lok Sabha elections with the partners going their own way in the assembly polls? There is no normal stand of the combine partners on this issue but informally there seems to be an understanding that the grand-standing is only focused on the general elections.
Interestingly, the ongoing efforts at taking forward the alliance and settle the issue of seat-sharing suddenly took a back seat. Obvious reason, as cited by the partners particularly Congress, is the five-state assembly elections. Since the Congress has strong presence in these states as against the other alliance partners, the party cleverly and rightly too wriggled out of the seat-adjustments talk at this stage.
A strong part of the alliance formation is the game of one-upmanship among the partners. And that is what was unfolding as the assembly elections were drawing nearer. Other parties wanted Congress to share seats with them whereas the party did not want to dilute its dominant position in these states that would result in reducing its bargaining position in seat sharing for Lok Sabha polls and in turn threat to its centrality in the entire game.
The one strong outcome of the Kamal Nath-Akhilesh episode is the realization that has dawned on the other parties that Congress’s dominant position as a national party to challenge the BJP, can only be ignored at their peril. Although Mr Yadav made attempts at managing couple of seats out of the Congress kitty in Madhya Pradesh, but perhaps soon realized its futility.
The controversy erupted as suddenly as it died down as quick efforts from both sides, tied the situation. Someone from Congress’s top echelons approached Mr Yadav to assuage his feelings and he lost no time in responding positively. That reflects how high the I.N.D.I.A partners value the alliance’s need at this juncture when faced with the might of Mr Modi.
None other than Mr Yadav himself revealed that he had “received a message from topmost Congress leader, and will have to accept it. That is number one”. Not leaving it at that he further said that Samajwadi Party would always stand with the Congress whenever the need arose.
He even referred to an historic perspective quoting the socialist icon Dr Ram Manohar Lohia and his father Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav. “They have in the past said that when the Congress is at its weakest and when they need us, they will reach out, and we should be with them…. We will follow our tradition………”
Notwithstanding the fact that Akhilesh Yadav’s quick rapprochement came not before he accused Congress of betrayal in Madhya Pradesh. The fact that he lost no time in putting the controversy behind his back, explains the significance of the opposition alliance at this crucial juncture.
The Congress-Samajwadi Party episode has firmed up the former’s position in one important respect. It is a fact that the Congress has been desperately trying to convince the allies about the centrality of its position, being the only national party in the combine with pan-India presence. This position has been strongly reiterated by Mr Rahul Gandhi’s Kashmir to Kanyakumari Bharat Jodo Yatra.
However, all these months since the alliance came into being, Congress has been at the receiving end. Every alliance partner either wanted the party to tamely surrender in states where they dominate or tried hard to extract their pound of flesh in Congress strongholds such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh.
What if Congress had spared seats for Samajwadi Party and Aam Aadmi Party in say Madhya Pradesh? Firstly, none of these parties has any significant presence in these states and leaving seats for them would have diluted Congress’s direct contest with BJP. Secondly and more importantly from the I.N.D.I.A alliance’s futuristic point of view, it has the potential to weaken Congress’s pivotal position in the alliance being the only national party. Though the other partners wanted this to happen, the Congress with bigger stakes in defeating the BJP could ill afford it and rightly thwarted the attempts.
The Madhya Pradesh episode has willy-nilly made the Congress’s pivotal position acceptable to the allies as Samajwadi Party with considerable influence in the Uttar Pradesh, with 80 Lok Sabha seats, quickly realized the futility of making the state assembly election alliance a big issue. This has set the tone for other regional satraps and state level players to view Congress in a proper perspective.
If Samajwadi Party realized the value of the alliance despite its dominant position in UP, why not others say Ms Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal or Arvind Kejriwal in Punjab and Delhi. In states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu the Congress is already part of the successful regional alliances with parties who are strong part of the I.N.D.I.A combine.
The Kamal Nath-Akhilesh Yadav spat did give BJP and it’s supporters, a cause for elation and they were quick to question the cohesiveness of the opposition alliance. But their sail punctured quickly as the issue was settled earlier than expected.
No one is expecting a smooth ride for the I.N.D.I.A alliance. More such episodes could be in line in the days to come as the Lok Sabha elections draw nearer. However, much would depend on the outcome of the assembly elections and it will have a great bearing not only on the alliance future but also that of the Congress.
Perhaps the episode has also led to realization that a strong and not weakened Congress is in the interest of the opposition unity. It is another matter that some of the regional leaders might view a strengthened Congress a threat to their existence in the times to come.
In terms of cricketing terminology and strategy, the I.N.D.I.A allies should have a plan to have a ball-by-ball playing approach. Their first goal should be the Lok Sabha elections and part of the strategy should also be to respect each other’s strong and weak points. As done by Akhilesh Yadav and thereby has set an example.
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