Brij Bhardwaj
Polling has started in the state of Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. It will be completed by end of this month and results will be out on December 3. Current indications are that incumbency is playing a big role in making up the choice by the voters. In some cases it is resentment against the Chief Minister of the State, and in some cases it is against the member of the Assembly representing them, who is accused of having neglected constituents or of corruption.
The reports indicate that at least in three states ruling party is being changed and party in opposition coming to power. For instance, in Rajasthan old tradition of a change every five years is being maintained. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot known as a magician is being voted out. He tried very hard by offering several welfare schemes like free health care, smart phones for students and many more but it has not helped his cause.
BJP, according to pollsters is winning by a big margin even though there was no Chief Minister face. There was lot of pressure to declare Vasundhara Raje, former Chief Minister of State, as a candidate, but BJP leadership chose to fight the poll under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and even denied tickets to many who were close to former Chief Minister. They also did not make her a part of their campaign.
Another Chief Minister in trouble is Shivraj Singh Chauhan from Madhya Pradesh. The longest serving Chief Minister is engaged in a very close fight with Congress leader Kamal Nath who had ruled the State for about a year after elections in 2018 but lost power when Mr Scindia walked out with his supporters and joined BJP. Chauhan, who has ruled the state for three terms, is facing lot of incumbency. It is for this reason that BJP has not made him Chief Minister Face in the current poll. There is close fight and the result difficult to tell.
One Chief Minister who is defying incumbency is Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. Last minute action by enforcement directorate by indicating that Chief Minister is being investigated for having received money from a betting syndicate has also not made much impact, as it is basically a rural state with small urban population.
Price of paddy procurement is more important an issue in the State than corruption. According to pollsters the tribal areas in the State voted in large numbers in first round and were unaware of any charges of corruption against the Chief Minister.
Another Chief Minister in trouble is Telangana Chief Minister K.Chandrashekar Rao. Mr Rao has been Chief Minister of Telangana ever since the state was formed. He got the credit for creation of the new State. He has ruled the State with an iron hand. The members of his party in the Assembly also called the shots in there respective constituencies with a result there was lot of resentment against them. Mr Rao announced the list of his party nominees well in advance but it has not helped his cause. He is facing a tough challenge from Congress party. His only hope is that BJP may cut into opposition vote and thus hand him a victory in the coming poll.
The fifth State going to polls is Mizoram where two regional parties are in contest besides BJP and Congress. The happenings in Manipur have become a big poll issue as a large number of people from Manipur have taken shelter there. There are strong links between residents of Mizoram and Manipur. The indications are that no single party will get a majority.
Many are calling the elections to five State Assemblies before the national poll for Lok Sabha in 2024 as semi-final . But if trends in 2019 are any indication, the elections for State Assemblies and poll for Lok Sabha are fought on different issues and voters make choices differently. In State elections local issues become prominent including face of Chief Minister, but in national poll which is becoming more and more like a presidential poll, opposition will be handicapped as they have no personality to match the popularity of Prime Minister.
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