Dr Harbans Singh
Ever increase in population, expansion in industry, surface and air transport, energy, tourism and deforestation together contribute to global warming through Green House Gases (GHG) emissions. However, computer models, so far, forecast that earth planet, by now, should have warmed up by 4.60C, but actual data showed that change in mean global temperature is only 0.60C. Analysis of data from 1901-to 2005 in India indicated increase in mean temperature by 0.50C. The long term data analysis from 1875-to-2004 showed it’s increase to 0.030C per decade and from 1971-to 2004 it was around 0.220C per decade, pointing towards greater warming in the recent decades. In 1997 Dr Krishna Rao, DG Meteorology, Govt of India stated that temperatures oscillate across Globe and are totally unpredicatable. About global warming, he said that over the past hundred years a rise of 0.40C temperature has been recorded. Not that one should not take heed of this, but it is too insignificant. However, this change in surface temperature is not uniform in time and space. Some seasons don’t exhibit as much variation as others. Analysis of long term mean annual temperature for 1952-2007 from 47 locations across this country by ICAR, indicated increasing trend in Central and Southern parts and N-E region. While there was decreasing trend in some parts of Gujarat, Konkan region, N-W parts of MP and Eastern Rajasthan.
According to atmospheric researchers at the University of Illinois (USA) although human contribution to global warming is clearly present and must be controlled. There is also another, yet unexplained cyclic contribution that has important implications on future climate change. Infact, movements of strong tides in oceans and wind on land surfaces contribute significantly on climate change. Study revealed that strong oceans tides over North Atlantic ocean drove changes in climate due to their ability to increase vertical mixing in the ocean and there by transport cold ocean water on surface, which in turn lower temperature in air over land surfaces resulting in cooler climate around the planet. Whereas, weak tides lead to less cold water mixing and result in warmer period on earth. This oscillation of temperature over North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent land area had a period of 65-75 years periodically warming and cooling atmosphere and contributing to counteract GHG emission effects.
In the context of Indian such continer, which falls in Northern Hemisphere such changes in climate also occur due to NW disturbances, which contribute to winter snowfall and rains in Northern parts of India. The period of NW disturbance is from Nov-March. However, some time it extends earlier to Nov and later to March as it happened during rabi season of 2012-2013. Even during 2011, due to low temperature in higher reaches in HP received as many as 3 spells of unseasonal snowfall in August and Sept which reduced melting of glaciers resulting in decline in discharge of water in rivers and reduction in power generation from Hydro-power stations by 40-60 percent very early in the season.
Oscillation of global temperature, sometme, leads to weather abrasions and unusual climate change, which may or may not be useful for crop production. However, a study from ICAR that present increase in carbon dioxide due to global warming is beneficial for several crops like rice, wheat, pulses and oil seeds, whereas, crops such as maize bajra, jowar and sugarcane do not benefit from increase in carbon dioxide. Inter Government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had projected that global food grain production potential could be increased with increase in average global temperature upto 30C but temperature rise above 30C could decrease the production of food grains. In India, food grain production increased from 130 mnt in 1980-81 to 259 mnt in 2011-12. In J&K it increased from 13.02 lakh tonnes to 18.77 lakh tonnes during the same period, whereas, the requirement of food grains in J&K is 20.47 lakh tonnes. Jammu division is self sufficient in food grains production having more area under double cropping of food grain crops, but Kashmir division is deficient by 30-35% due to mono cropping of food grain crops and diversion of more area towards fruit culture. Even recently 20 percent of irrigated rice area has been converted into apple orchard. But, it must be realized that average rice yield under temperate climatic conditions of Kashmir valley below 6000 ft altitude can be increased by 3-3.5 times (7-80 q/ha) from existing yield level of 23 q/ha. It is due to availability of more sunshine hours, mild temperature and assured irrigation during rice growing season with high yielding varieties and improved agronomic practices, as is evident from the yield records of demonstration plots on farmer’s fields. Fruit production in the State during 1980-81 was 5.6 lakh tone from an area of 1.31 lakh hectare and during 2011-12 it increased by 3.0 times with the increase in area by 2.5 times. This indicates the overall increase in agriculture production in the State both from food grains and fruits. States shares 77 percent of country’s apple production with 40 percent of area, contribution of walnut is 96 percent and that of saffron about 100 percent. The productivity of apples is higher among the fruits in India, which stands at 11 t/ha, Even high density planting of apple recorded 44 t/ha.
Among the different gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, EFLC etc, the major contribution in global warming is that of CO2. However, regarding CH4 it is now believed that all factors that are generating Methane, natural processes are destroying as much methane each year as is being released. Even methanotropic bacteria has been isolated, which help in controlling methane gas release in atmosphere. Infact to combat global warming by GHG in India, it will be most appropriate to work out carbon-credit of each state. Himachal is the first state in India to get World Bank carbon credit programme approved. The hill state has been able to workout its emission, which stands at 1.47 mnt of CO2. Inventory has been prepared from varies sectors like industry, transport, tourims, agriculture, waste land usage and forestry. If hydropower energy which is cleaner is included in it HP could even claim to be carbon neutral state, a rare feat. Transport, industry, energy and tourism are reported to major contributor of GHG emissions. Thus, after accessing the contribution of different sectors toward global warming following measures, which are already in progress need to be accelerated in implementation in the right Earnest;
* As per 2011 census 31 percent of 33 crore households across the country use kerosene for lighting (7 percent urban and 73 percent rural). Besides, 30 percent of households use incandescent bubls for lighting, if replaced by LED bulb nearly save 50 mnt of carbon emission every year . LED bulbs are 20 percent more efficient over CFL and over 90 percent more efficient than incandescent bulbs, Kerosene lamps also needs to be replaced by solarlamps.
* Census of 2011 also revealed that 67 percent families use fuel wood, crop residues, cow dung and coal for cooking. Among the urban families 20 percent use fuel wood for cooking. Infact, what we don’t realize is that bulk of what we call as renewal energy as much as 80 percent is bio-mass energy, which is used by poor to meet their cooking and fuel needs.
* It is estimated that soot and other form of black carbon could have as much as 60 percent of current global warming effect of CO2, which is 0.9 watt/m2 and remain restricted to 2.0 km altitude range, where black carbon not only absorb sun light, but also solar energy reflected by clouds, which acclerate the melting of Himalayan glaciers. Thus, there is urgent need to provide smokeless chullas/smoke free cookers to families who use bio-mass for cooking.
* Harness renewal resources for electricity generation like wind and solar power. Govt of India already envisage to atleast 30,000 MW of solar power by 2022, which will be 15 percent of total electricity generation. Infact, we have huge resources of renewal energy in the country which includes 5 trillion MW of solar energy 70,000 MW of wind energy and more than 2 lakh MW of hydrogen energy which are being tapped with the passage of time.
* In tourism sector, it should be made mandatory for hotels to use solar heaters, solar lights and solar cookers to reduce CO2emission.
* In transport sector use of fuel efficient engines with timely services be encouraged to reduce CO2 emission and carbon monoxide (black smoke) in particular.
* Afforestation also needs to be accelerated which is major source of CO2 sink A tree absorb on an average 6 Kg of CO2 per year.
* Every effort must be made to stabilize population, which at present is increasing at the rate of 1.7 percent per annum.
All these measures will help in mitigating the adverse effect of global warming and climate change on Agriculture Production, life stock rearing and human well being for the present and the future generations to come.
(The author is former Vice-Chancellor SKUAST-J&K)
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