Anil Anand
The crushing defeat in the three Hindi heartland states-Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan- has hit the Congress hard twice over. It is in terms of its main face in the elections Rahul Gandhi and the ever fledgling I.N.D.I.A opposition combine. Knives are already out questioning the former and the issues raised by him, and the defeat’s impact on the elusive opposition unity.
The defeat in the three Hindi-belt states that reflect the core of India’s electoral politics has the strong potential of negatively impacting Gandhi personally as in some manner he was to Congress what Narendra Modi was to BJP in these elections. Both of them were the most popular faces for their respective parties who spearheaded the poll campaign.
The defeat has caught Mr Gandhi in the one-step-forward and two-steps-backward syndrome. What he had achieved with his strenuous 4000-kilometer Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY) which had refurbished his image to a great deal, has been undone to a great deal by the electoral defeats happening at a crucial time ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
The fillip that his image had achieved as result of BJY had silenced his critics both in the BJP and among the constituents of opposition combine. After nearly a decade of ridicule and hard criticism Mr Gandhi seemed comfortably placed and braced up for the bigger political fights ahead with clearly an eye on 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s criticism of him had watered down and his acceptance among the I.N.D.I.A alliance had increased manifold till the electoral debacle happened.
Seems, it is back to square one. The situation needs to be handled carefully and with better strategy.
So, the tragedy for Congress is double-fold. Mr Gandhi, it’s most popular face on one side, and likely adverse impact on the opposition alliance as poll defeat has left it more vulnerable even before it could take a shape, overcoming the inner contradictions. If the alliance has become vulnerable, the situation has even graver ramifications for the Congress as was already visible on the manner in which an informal meeting of the I.N.D.I.A combine called for December 6 in the midst of the Winter Session of Parliament had to be hurriedly postponed. The reason being regional satraps such as Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, M K Stalin and Akhilesh Yadav expressed their inability, citing one or the other excuse, to attend the meeting.
This was a clear sign of the Congress’s weakened position thereby raising bargaining position of the I.N.D.I.A constituents in a single stroke after the election rout in the states wherein it had spurned suggestions of entering into a limited alliance with some of the opposition parties to provide a semblance of opposition unity. Rightly or wrongly the Congress preferred to make it a direct contest with the BJP hoping that it would emerge stronger in the final outcome and enter the I.N.D.I.A domain on a much firmer footing at least to become its fulcrum.
There is no doubt that the Congress has sizable presence in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the states which it had been ruling for long in the past, though it lacked on the organization front. There was a strong element of justification in the party’s decision to avoid sharing of seats on the ground that none of the interested regional parties had any worthwhile presence in these states. Nevertheless, an alliance and a joint campaign by the I.N.D.I.A combine leaders perhaps could have made better optics than the Congress going it solo.
At least it would have helped in laying a platform for taking the alliance into the Lok Sabha elections on a firm footing even if the outcome of the state assembly elections had been similar. The Congress’s defeat has made the opposition alliance look more vulnerable as many of the I.N.D.I.A partners might become wary of either joining hands with the Congress or boarding what they might perceive as a sinking ship. Even some of them may consider returning to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold, or strike a limited deal with the BJP.
From here on the Congress will have to simultaneously move on two fronts speedily- work to keep the I.N.D.I.A alliance going and more importantly hold on to the gains which the BJY had accrued to Mr Gandhi’s public standing. Both the factors, from the Congress’s point of view, are entwined as it will be naïve to think, as some of his distractors must be hoping, that he will withdraw and become a political recluse.
Apart from the Congress factor which the opposition alliance components have already started over-playing and blaming the party for all ills after the recent electoral drubbing, the alliance has some inner inherent contradictions which it has to come to terms with. Apart from dealing with the Congress the regional satraps who are part of the combine are beset with problems of their ambitions, egos and personal interests. They will have to keep these issues on the backburner and focus on seat sharing formula and drawing a common minimum programme in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections.
A more contentious issues is about who the leader of the combine would be and whether Congress the only national party in the lot with pan-India presence can be the fulcrum of the alliance. This is where the triple electoral defeat of the Congress has provided a handle to the other players who have already begun the exercise of pinning the grand-old party down. Running each other down will help none. This realization must dawn on the alliance partners.
It will be of greater interest to see how Congress deals with such a situation. Certainly, it will be an acid test for the party managers. They will have to plan in such a manner to deftly counter the I.N.D.I.A partner’s charge of “arrogance and big-brotherly attitude” of the Congress and at the same time ensure that the alliance happened on equal footing no matter even if the party, in the aftermath of recent defeats, has to concede some space.
Under the changed circumstances it will not be enough to draw solace that coming together is a compulsion of the opposition leaders fearing the Modi factor. That united they will stand and divide fall at any time. They will have to go beyond this dictum. Racing against time as they are, the leaders of the I.N.D.I.A combine parties should not lose time in overcoming their personal likes and dislikes.
A reality check is what is needed the most. And it is a reality that the Congress has badly lost in three Hindi- heartland states but still remains to be the main challenger to BJP in these states and some other parts of the country. The reality check would also demand that the partners realize their own weak and strong points and work accordingly on a seat-sharing formula for future.
There is no doubt the BJP is prettily placed after the latest round of assembly elections. And the opposition parties willing to make a common cause should have no doubt in their minds that they need to move on firm footing, avoiding every controversy through identification of common meeting points.
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