Anil Anand
JD (u) supremo Mr Nitish Kumar took oath as Bihar chief minister for the record 9th time to head the fifth NDA Government after suddenly severing relations with opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A of which he claimed to be an architect. Had Mr Kumar completed five-year terms as CM, probably he would be figuring in Guiness book of world records for nearly four decades at the helm. Nine times CM in quick succession makes it an interesting case study.
Mr Kumar’s latest somersault speaks volumes about his prowess to change political colours at the drop of a hat. His latest acrobat has happened within 17 months of his making a common cause with his fellow socialist Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. Certainly, he has set new norms and lowered the bar by considerable notches, in establishing a record of sorts to grab the sobriquet of ‘aaya ram gaya ram’. Pushing behind the legendry title holder former chief minister of Haryana Mr Bhajan Lal.
Nothing better than the banner headline of a leading English national daily than to describe in proper perspective Mr Kumar’s latest political shenanigans. “Sab ka saath (referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trademark slogan), Apna Vikas? Nitish CM for 9th time. The catchy headline said it all.
What led Mr Kumar to act in the manner of an established trapeze artist to change colours at a time when he was tipped to be playing an important role in the I.N.D.I.A combine, is baffling though not surprising as he had been dropping enough hints regarding his course of action. Did he see no chance of his heading the opposition alliance on way to be projected as the possible Prime Minister candidate? Or did he wilt under some kind of pressure exerted by the NDA (read Modi-Amit Shah) quarters?
Only Mr Kumar would know about the exact reason behind his changed stance at the cost of his hard-sold image of Mr Clean and ‘susashan babu’ (good governance). Unfortunately for him, the record setting Bihar chief minister has lost both these titles in a single stroke. His electoral prowess would be best put to test during the Lok Sabha elections but his political graph has dramatically dipped within no time. As the things stand, he is unlikely to gain anything out of his latest antics. To the contrary on test would be his trustworthiness.
It would not be wrong to say that Mr Kumar has acquired a new place in the political landscape of the country. He has become a persona non-grata with either side on the political divide now finding hard to trust him. The circumstances under which he decided to join the NDA bandwagon has not only resulted in his losing his identity but has made him much more dependent on Modi-Shah duo than ever before. From the one who was dictating terms in the I.N.D.I.A combine and reigning supreme heading the JD(u)-RJD-Congress coalition Government in Bihar, he would now be on the receiving end from the word go. It was clear from the manner in which the BJP leaders of the state and at the center had reacted to Mr Kumar’s return to the NDA fold. Some were guarded while others were critical.
For all practical purposes Mr Clean has committed a political suicide. Rather than serving any purpose other than ensuring his continuation in the chief minister’s office for the time being (assembly elections are due in Bihar 2025), by aligning with the NDA he has only furthered the political task of the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. He has ended up becoming a small pawn on the electoral chess-board of the saffron party which was too eager to snatch Bihar (focus on 40 Lok Sabha seats) from I.N.D.I.A group clutching.
Certainly, Mr Kumar has dealt a body blow to the fledgling opposition alliance in his act of self-immolation. His unceremonious walk-out from the opposition camp upstaging all calculations has definitely given an advantage to BJP to mock at the opposition unity at one level and try and wean away the sheen from former Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s ongoing Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.
The timing of Mr Kumar’s exit was superb. It happened at a time when Mr Gandhi’s entourage was preparing to enter Bihar. Notwithstanding Mr Kumar’s political antics, Mr Gandhi’s bus yatra received a tumultuous welcome in the state.
Did the timing accrue anymore benefits in terms of futuristic deals with the big brother BJP, for him? If he wilted under pressure, so no question of anymore benefit other than continuing as chief minister. It is hard to believe that it was a mutually agreeable act with Mr Kumar holding his head high. In fact, he was presented a fate accompli. None of the factors including his body language after somersault points towards the possibility where his self-pride was kept intact.
Fact of the matter is that Mr Kumar is at the total mercy of BJP now with other NDA allies in Bihar such as his bete noire Chirag Paswan heading a faction of the Lok Janshakti Party founded by his father late Mr Ram Vilas Paswan and former chief minister Jiten Ram Manjhi baying for his blood.
The fact that Mr Kumar leads a smaller group of JD (u) MLAs with BJP and other allies unitedly commanding majority, make him more vulnerable. His dependence on BJP will be manifold and given the style of working in the current BJP dispensation. He is in for a tough time.
Mr Kumar deserting I.N.D.I.A combine coupled with Enforcement Directorate forcing another neighbouring opposition ruled state chief minister Mr Hemant Soren of Jharkhand being forced to quit, are well-orchestrated moves aimed at hitting the combine where it hurts the most. The two-fold aim is to make the opposition unity look more fragile and sequester the opposition camp before it could unite. Secondly and more importantly the prime target in all probability is the second phase of Mr Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra with word Nyay added to it. The Nitish and Soren episodes happened when the Nyay Yatra was bound to enter Bihar and Jharkhand.
There is no doubt that once Mr Clean and Susahan babu, Mr Kumar has ended up becoming a trump card in the hands of BJP. How long will he be comfortably allowed to continue as chief minister could be anyone’s guess. His first utility for BJP will be in the Lok Sabha elections being an OBC-Kurmi leader. And first test of his real standing will be whether JD(u) gets the desired number of seats for its candidates or it will have to settle on the BJP and other allies’ terms.
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