By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Talks for BJP-BJD alliance in Odisha is in advanced state. “There were discussions on the alliance among other issues,” said BJP MP Jual Oram, adding “the party’s central leadership will make the final call.” Obviously, there is greater possibility of pre-poll alliance between the two parties, and if it becomes a reality, BJP may hope for shielding its possible loss from Odisha in the Lok Sabha election 2024, especially those seats which it had won by a very thin margin in 2019. BJP wants to “prioritise the greater interests of the people of Odisha” as BJD’s Vice President Debi Prasad Mishra told reporters.
For Congress, it is indeed a bad news, though it has only one Lok Sabha seat and 9 Vidhan Sabha seats at stake. In National Politics, BJD has always sided with the BJP even without alliance, but BJP’s deft move for pre-poll alliance with BJD, would rule out any possibility of BJD’s alliance with INDIA Bloc o any collaboration in future.
In the last 15 years, Odisha politics has undergone a significant change, especially after 2009 when BJP-BJD alliance broke after 11 years of partnership. During this period, the BJP has emerged as chief opposition in the state, while BJD led by Navin Patnaik remained the most popular political leader. Congress has been relegated to the third position, which is evident from the results of the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections simultaneously held in 2019.
The state sends 21 Lok Sabha members. BJD had won 12 seats, while BJP had won 8, and only 1 seat went to Congress. Barring only two seats–Koraput and Nabarangpur – Congress was not in one-on-one contest. Congress lost Nabarangpur seat to BJD by a margin of 41,634 votes, while it won Koraput defeating BJD by a very thin margin of 3,613. In as many as 19 seats BJP and BJD were in contests. The result shows that even after a pro-BJP Hindutva wave after Pulwama attack, BJP could win only 8 seats, out of which it won 6 seats with a very thin margin – Sambalpur by a margin of 9,162 votes; Mayurbhanj by a margin of 25,256 votes; Balasore by a margin of 12,956 votes; Bolangir by a margin of 19,516 votes; Kalahandi by a margin of 26,814 votes; and Bhubaneswar by a margin of 23,839 votes. This time, when there is no wave in favour of BJP, the party is running a risk of losing these to BJD. This is the real cause behind BJP’s move to realign with BJD. When PM Narendra Modi and the BJP are seeking for their third term, they can’t afford to lose any of the Lok Sabah seats it had won in 2019.
BJP not only trying to secure and or retain all the 8 Lok Sabhas seats it has at present, but also trying to increase its national tally. PM Modi has given a target of 370 seats for BJP and 405 seats for NDA, so that he can bring sweeping change in India’s Constitutional character to convert to Hindutva. From Odisha, BJP has only 8 seats, and the party wants to make it 9, which explains why the party is demanding 9 seats to contest from the state. BJD also wants to increase its tally from the present 12 to 13, and hence the party wants to contest from 13 seats.
Thus, differences between the two persists on only those two seats from where Congress was either winner or runner up in Lok Sabha election 2019. BJD was runner up in Karaput, it was winner in Nabarangpur. Hence, BJD had better claim on 13 seats, than BJP’s claim of 9 seats. Since BJP is in urgent need of the alliance to secure its present Lok Sabha seats it may finally agree on 8 seats that BJD agrees to give them as a part of alliance.
Though BJD had won 12 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, it had actually lost 8 seats compared to its tally after 2014 Lok Sabha election. Its vote share was 42.76 per cent, and there was 1.34 per cent swing against the party. BJP on the other hand was able to bag 38.37 per cent of votes with a swing of 16.87 per cent in its favour. It enabled BJP to win 8 seats in 2019, 7 more than in 2014. No wonder, BJD is also running the risks involved in direct contest with the BJP. BJD’s willingness for alliance with BJP is thus understandable.
What is then the prospect of Congress? Congress could not win even a single seat in the Lok Sabha election 2014, but could win 1 seat in 2019. The party could bag only 13.81 per cent of votes in 2019 with a 12.19 per cent swing against it. Nevertheless, during 2019 and 2024, much has been changed at the grassroots level and there is a certain level of anti-incumbency against the ruling BJD. The loss of vote share of Congress in 2019 was chiefly on account of a wave in favour of the BJP, and on the eve of 2024 election, there is no such wave for BJP to ride on. It goes without saying that Congress has been gaining strength in the last five years in Odisha, putting both the ruling BJD and BJP at great risks in any triangular BJP-BJD-Congress contest.
As for the Vidhan Sabha election is concerned, out of 146 seats, BJD has won 112 seats in 2019. BJP could win only 23 seats, CPI(M) 1, and Congress 9. It is clear that BJD has decidedly upper hand in the state, and neither the BJP nor the Congress seems to be in position to significantly dent into the BJD support base in 2024. If BJD-BJP alliance could potentially give upper hand to BJP in national politics, BJD could strengthen itself further in the state, while it can get financial and other benefits including power at the Centre if NDA led by BJP returns to power for the third time.
Congress and INDIA alliance partners still can perform better than 2019, on account of double anti-incumbency against the BJD in the state and against BJP at the Centre. Political narrative is changing fast, and situation on the ground level is turning against both BJP and BJD, after initial BJP’s advantage on account of Ram Temple at Ayodhya and projects relating to Lord Jagannath of Puri respectively. The real issues of unemployment, poverty, and cost of living crisis among others are turning the tide slowly which seems to benefit Congress and INDIA bloc. BJP-BJD alliance would directly place NDA and INDIA bloc in one-on-one contest on every constituency, both in Lok Sabha and in Vidhan Sabha election.
This one on one contest in Odisha should lead the Congress to form a composite alliance of INDIA bloc parties trough seat sharing with the CPI and the CPI(M). Both the parties have limited support base but in the present situation, the Congress will be benefitted by forging a composite alliance. There are 21 seats from the state to the Lok Sabha. The Congress lacks the strength to take on BJD-BJP combine on its own in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. It will be in the interests of the INDIA bloc if such an alliance is formed. (IPA
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