K N Pandita
Death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, foreign minister Abdullahian and several other dignitaries in the chopper crash somewhere in North East Iran is an irreparable loss to the Iranian nation. It is more so because it happened at a time when Iran is knee-deep in domestic unrest and regional crisis. The two leaders who had been manning Iran’s domestic and foreign policy are gone and there is a vacuum of sorts that needs to be filled with utmost caution. The death of two crucial Iranian dignitaries is a blow to the secret peace talks that were reportedly going on between Iran and the US.
Various reasons are given for the crash. One reason is that the machine was outdated and its parts could not be arranged owing to the imposition of sanctions. This is not tenable. Why was this particular chopper pressed into service and selected for taking VVIPs on flight to a destination close to the Iran-Azerbaijan border.
The theory of inclement weather and poor visibility is weak and fragile, if it was the reason, other two choppers too should have met with a similar fate. They landed safely.
Then there is the third theory of sabotage. It is said that the adversary may have taken recourse to advanced usage of laser beam technique and chosen the target with extraordinary accuracy. If that theory is trusted, we should get a clue of the assailant air craft or the flying rocket that carries the precision laser extension stream. So far no report raising the finger of doubt towards either Mossad or CIA has come in confirming the undeclared sabotage. No terrorist group has owned the responsibility of perpetrating the heinous crime.
Yes, Iran has accused Israel several times for making successful attempts of massacring Iranian nuclear scientists. But engineering the assassination of top Iranian leadership cannot be accepted in absence of dependable or substantial proof.
Thus, we are left with the only option of development of some technical snag which was beyond the control of the pilot. But before we close the chapter of fixing the responsibility, we must not ignore the fact that there is widespread rivalry among the senior clergy in Iran. The election of the President was to take place and the grape vine has it that Raisi was likely to step in the shoes of Khamenei. This may have exacerbated anti-Raisi animus. Who could have contrived the sabotage?
Moving away from the rumours associated with the chopper crash, there is something more that meets the eye. Iranian sources have also reported the revelries indulged into by some segments of civilian population in different parts of Tehran as the news of the tragedy came in. How would one explain the dichotomy of sorrow and sadism going hand in hand in today’s Iranian society? In particular, the video clipping showing women raising glasses to the energizing tidings of the disappearance of the President and a couple of his important colleagues seems nothing short of sadism.
The fact is that after the Ahsa Amini custodial killing event, turmoil has been simmering in the Iranian society. Raisi’s government suppressed the women liberation movement with an iron hand and reports are that more than 400 women were killed because of unleashing of state repression.
But if we go a little back, we will recollect that there was large scale rigging in the previous election to the Majlis (Iranian Parliament) At that time many complaints were brought before the Supreme religious leader who, however, did not consider the requests as genuine. In other words there is not only the inflammation of opposition to Raisi administration but to the unpalatable situation of county’s political powers passing into the hands of a new combination of elements with the blessings of the high office of the President.
But this discourse notwithstanding, some hard realities of ongoing dynamics of Iran’s current political strategies are too obvious. The stability of the theocratic regime is on rickety legs. The regime is an anathema for a population that has been and aspires to be open and receptive to modernization trends so far tenaciously stonewalled by the theocratic regime. The writing on the wall is clear and prompting. If time is not taken by forelock, Iran will be face to face with something called civil war in political lexicon. At the moment we do not see the leadership gifted with the courage and capability of leading the nation though it is also very true that Iranian nation has no dearth of throwing up the men of crisis in an era of crisis.
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