Prof D K Giri
Prime Minister Narendra Modi just concluded a two-day visit to Russia.When he deputed External Affairs Minister Jaishankar to lead the Indian delegation to Astana, Kazakhstan for the 24th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State, it was viewed by observers as watering down India’s relations with SCO and a reaction to growing Sino-Russian axis. But the impression was belied by Modi landing in Moscow just four days after the SCO summit.
Modi was there to attend the 22nd annual summits between Indian and Russian leadership. Furthermore, he was conferred ‘Order of St Andrew the Apostle’, the highest civilian honour of Russia, although the decision to do so was taken into 2019. However, Modi’s visit to Russia hours after Russian bombing in Ukraine killing at least 41 people would have been watched by the world leaders.
The United States is playing down Modi’s timing of the visit which coincides with NATO summit in Washington. But the US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller urged Modi to talk about Ukraine war and emphasise Ukraine’s territorial integrity. He said, “We would urge India as we do any country when it engages with Russia, to make clear that any resolution to the conflict in Ukraine needs to be one that respects the UN Charter that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and Ukraine’s sovereignty”.
The reaction from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was more forthright and sharp. He said, “It is a huge disappointment and devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day”. The day he was referring to was the day of Modi’s arrival and Russian bombing in Ukraine killing children etc.Modi did raise the need of ending the war in Ukraine and openly mourned the death of children. He spoke to the media in Russia reiterating his remark to Putin a couple of years ago that war is ‘not a solution’.
Reportedly, Prime Minister Modi told the Russian President Putin that, “peace talks do not succeed amidst bombs, guns and bullets”. He added that “whether it is war, conflict or a terrorist attack, any person who believes in humanity, is pained when there is loss of lives. But even in that, when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and the pain is very terrifying”.
Modi had wide ranging discussion with Putin. On the top of his agenda was to raise the case of Indian men fighting for Russia in Ukraine. Indian nationals were lured with false promises of job offers and ended up joining the Russian army in Ukraine. Quite a few Indians have died so far. Putin agreed to release the Indians from their army duty. That will bring some relief to the families of Indians traumatised by their manipulation into the Russian army.
India and Russia signed nine agreements during Modi’s visit that included several sectors – trade, climate and research. Notably, a bilateral cooperation agreement was signed in trade, economic and investment spheres in the Russian far East for the period of five years, 2024-29. Similarly, a joint Investment Promotion Framework Agreement was signed between Invest India and JSE Management Company of Russian Direct Investment Fund. This is to facilitate investment by Russian companies in the Indian market by promoting and fostering investment cooperation.
An MoU between the Trade Promotion Council of India and All Russia Public Organisation called Business Russia was signed to promote bilateral trade, organise B2B meetings, and business promotion events, exchange business delegations etc. Another MoU was signed between the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and the Ministry of Economic Development of Government of Russia on climate change and low-carbon development. Other MoUs included research, settlement of civil law disputes of commercial nature, cooperation on broadcasting and medicinal products.
During the visit, the personal warmth between Modi and Putin was evident. Modi called Putinhis friend, whom he has met 17 times. Putin reciprocated by addressing Modi as one of his best friends. India’s relationship with Russia goes back to the 17th century with the establishment of India House at Astrakhan, where Gujarati trades had settled. Russia has stood by India in Bangladesh liberation war and during the entire Cold War phase of international politics. But much water has flown down the river Volga. USSR, the forerunner of Russia has disintegrated. Russia has moved closer to China and further away from the West. This has made India quite uncomfortable.
Admittedly, in India-Russia bilateralism, in the last two decades, there have been convergences as well as divergences of approach. Russia helped India become a member of SCO, Moscow worked closely with New Delhi in BRICS; India’s position vis-à-vis Russia-Ukraine war and related oil imports have brought them together despite Moscow’s growing proximity with Beijing, New Delhi has been patient and has provided an alternative for Russia to China, so that Russia is not sucked in dependence on China.
Divergences outweigh the benefits of convergences. Russia’s relationship with China has grown dramatically over the last 10 years. This growth is represented by Russia’s tacit support for China’s BRI, criticism of Quad and Indo-Pacific, greater trade with China, joint military exercises transferring advanced Russian military equipment to China and other complex and sensitive strategic exchange. As Russia has jumped into the bandwagon of China, New Delhi could not expect Moscow to perform any balancing act in Asia. What has deepened the divergences most is the simultaneous rise in India-China rivalry and greater Russia-China cooperation. It looks like the twain shall never meet.
Unarguably, the level of continuity has dropped in India-Russia relations. The defence and strategic ties, the main pillars of bilateralism between two countries, have suffered greatly over the last decade. Modi’s visit does not appear to revive them to their earlier state. The factors that contribute to the decline in these ties consist of dissatisfaction with the quality and volume of defence trade and increasing strategic diversions on dealing with China and India’s growing relations with the US. In particular, India is increasingly being wary of Russian ‘soft mediation’ in the ongoing India-China face-off as there is a growing perception of Russia lacking empathy for India’s position and concerns around the crises.
However, New Delhi does not seem inclined to withdraw from an ongoing relation with Russia. The Ukraine war is decidedly the elephant in the room. The ongoing tragic war has widened the wedge between Russia in the West. New Delhi, whether it likes it or not, is caught precariously between the two camps. Even though, India does not expect great benefits out of its ties with Russia, New Delhi will continue to maintain the historical relations even at the cost of some exasperation to the West. The question is how long India will be able to ride two horses at the same time? (INFA)
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