Anil Anand
The outcome of the July 10, 2024 bi-election to 13 assembly seats spread over seven states has to be viewed in three contexts- though seem different in nature but are rolled into one and united by the electoral politics.
What are these contexts?
Firstly, post- 2014 Lok Sabha election so dominant has been the aura of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who and BJP practically fought every election, no matter what the tier is, on or in his name. This factor has assumed another rather a new dimension after last Lok Sabha polls where his predominance has been diluted and the saffron party failed to muster even a simple majority- the magic figure of 272.
So, it is but natural that the assembly bi-polls in which BJP fared unimpressively, has to be viewed in this context. This is bi-far the most important premise.
The second context has been the Rahul Gandhi factor which had been gaining gradual ground after his famous and strenuous twin, Bharat Jodo Yatra and Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. It showed its impact in the considerably improved position of Congress in Lok Sabha elections. From down in the dump, the grand old party almost touched the three-figure mark (99). As a result of which Mr Gandhi was officially accorded the position of Leader of Opposition (LoP) in Lok Sabha.
Third and a pivotal context is the existence and impact of the I.N.D.I.A combine of the opposition parties. The cohesiveness of the combine has always been in question with allies such as Ms Mamta Banerjee, Trinamool Congress, and Arvind Kejriwal, Aam Aadmi Party, at times gyrating in different directions. Paradoxically; collectively and individually the alliance seemed to have delivered once again after the Lok Sabha elections.
The bi-polls took place in West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Tamil Nadu. The scoreline was I.N.D.I.A bloc 10, BJP 2 and Independent one. Clearly, the odds were against BJP as it failed to retain three of its seats in West Bengal, lost two including the holy Badrinath seat- important like Ayodhya from the party’s Hindutava plank- in the party-ruled Uttarakhand, and won two- one each in Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh- by meagre margins.
Both Himachal and Madhya Pradesh seats have an interesting context. The party had fielded Congress, which rules Himachal Pradesh, defectors from Hamirpur and three other constituencies of the state, where bi-elections were necessitated by their defection and subsequent resignation to contest on BJP tickets. The BJP lost three seats only to win one by a slender margin. The BJP, which has recently swept the Lok Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh and prior to that won the assembly elections hands-down, won the bi-election with great difficulty.
In contrast the loosely knit I.N.D.I.A combine partners, without formally coming together for this phase of elections, mostly retained their turfs without stepping on each-others feet. Apart from West Bengal where Trinamool Congress divested BJP of three seats, the interesting story lies in the performance of the Congress which has to be viewed in continuation of its Lok Sabha performance. Importantly, it won three of the four seats in Himachal Pradesh which came as a double whammy- it kept up the winning streak of the Rahul-era. And more importantly, took the state government, which was on the BJP’s radar to be upstaged by engineering defections, further in the safety zone to the chagrin of the saffron party’s strategists.
Similarly, coming after total debacle in Lok Sabha elections, the two-seat victory in Uttarakhand holds an added significance for the Congress, which has been driven to the margins by the BJP during the last over a decade. In the face of the Hindutava-agenda crescendo and after loss of Faizabad-Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat, the BJP’s loss of two seats in the holy Badrinath-Haridwar belt has to be viewed in the context of a new developing narrative counter to the Modi-centric electoral operation of the BJP. And also, the Hindutava plank which seem to be diluting in the face of issues such as unemployment, inflation and administrative high-handedness.
There is no denying the fact that the BJP’s loss is Congress’s gain. Even wherever its alliance partners have won, such as DMK in Tamil Nadu or Trinamool Congress in West Bengal where both parties contested against each other in the state. Likewise, JD(U)’s, a leading BJP ally in the NDA and a ruling partner both at the Centre and in Bihar, loss in the lone bi-election in the state is BJP’s loss.
On a broader scale, Mr Modi’s loss, since all elections have been fought either in his name or the performance of his government, is a gain for Mr Gandhi. It is to the credit of Mr Gandhi that he has steadfastly and single-handedly launched a campaign against Mr Modi on one side and BJP-RSS combine on the other, to build a narrative that caught people’s imagination in Lok Sabha elections and to a great extent in assembly bi-elections. In fact, it will not be out of place to say that this narrative also proved potent for the I.N.D.I.A partners as well.
Since 2014 Lok Sabha elections Mr Modi has been a big factor in every election both from the ruling BJP as well the opposition parties’ perspective. He loved to hog limelight and carry the entire campaign on his shoulders without giving even an inch to any other leader of his party or the allies. Naturally, if he has been taking credit for every victory, he has to take the responsibility for poor performance in Lok Sabha elections and the bi-polls.
The BJP losing 63 Lok Sabha seats and remaining pretty short of even the simple majority in Lok Sabha, and winning only two of the 13 assembly seats in bi-elections, has to be analysed under this context. Modi factor has been all pervading since 2014 and helped BJP in registering series of poll victories. This all pervasiveness has to come into play in the event of poor performances as well. Heads I win, tails you lose kind of phenomena can’t work. At least people would not accept that.
These poll successes and failures cannot be seen as a one-off process and have to be viewed in continuity, and are bound to impact the next phase of state assembly elections due later this year. The bi-polls’ outcome reflected that politically speaking interesting times are coming ahead. Both from the perspective of BJP and Congress-led I.N.D.I.A bloc. Tough time could be ahead for BJP and challenging for Congress and its allies.
The outcome of these bi-polls is bound to impact the more important next phase of assembly elections, later this year, in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. All the three states are politically significant since Haryana and Maharashtra are ruled either by BJP or its led alliance and Jharkhand by Congress-led I.N.D.I.A combine. The BJP has a bigger stake particularly in a big state like Maharashtra where its performance was below par in Lok Sabha election despite overseeing breaking up of Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress party, into two, to give rise to a new coalition government.
Despite having broken the two regional parties and their ruling alliance with Congress, and in turn form an alternative government with the assistance of defections and dissensions, BJP-led combine faired badly. So, the challenge.
Similarly, the BJP government in Haryana, surviving with the help of defectors after its alliance partner, Jannayak Janata Party walked out of the government, is facing tough time ahead of the assembly elections. More so, the saffron party which had won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, lost half of these this time.
Following arrest of the then Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren, a tribal, heading an I.N.D.I.A combine dispensation, in an alleged case of corruption which many felt had politically motivated, the politics of the Tribal dominated state took an interesting turn. His subsequent release on bail after five months in jail and getting reinstated as the chief minister, has given a new direction to the state’s politics ahead of the assembly elections with “Tribal pride” being the buzz word.
Normally, the assembly bi-polls are a localized phenomenon and contested on local issues. The ruling party is the beneficiary most of the times. It is likely that the impact of the Lok Sabha elections and assembly bi-poll results will be felt in the next phase of assembly elections as the impending contest will be between Mr Modi (read NDA in the changed context) and I.N.D.I.A combine.
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