Dr Sudershan Kumar
Our neighboring country of Bangladesh witnessed the sudden and unceremonious ouster of Iron Lady of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina from power on 5th August 2024 coupled with chaos, breakdown of law and order in the country. This Bangladesh domestic turmoil not only baffled the analysts around the globe but also raised eyebrows looking at the manner in which she was dislodged from power looming with a threat for her life. The geopolitical unrest which unfolded with peaceful demonstrations concerning abolition of reservation quota suddenly escalated to severest of violence leading to killing of nearly 97 people. Furthermore, amidst this anarchy, chaos, loots destruction of infrastructure, particular community felt the most brunt. Besides millions of people in Bangladesh seized Dhaka. Moreover, this so called reservation strike morphed into protest against the Government which further deteriorated following police and army personnel back tracking leading to complete breakdown of Law and Order in whole of Bangladesh. The hijacking of agitation for certain vested interest within Bangladesh aimed at over throwing democratically elected Government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed. The hardliners, fundamentalists with certain anti-social elements and fringe of other parties overpowered and steered the protests resorting to unscrupulous and shameful acts like vandalizing the statue of the father of the nation, Late Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. Utter derogatory and shameless act by a protester which was witnessed was the urination on the head of the statue of the father of Nation in Bangladesh. This heinous act surely cannot have a place in this civilized society.It should be condemned at national and international level. They also ransacked the house of the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed. Although Bangladesh Army Chief General Wakar-uz-Zaman formed the interim Government with Noble Laureate Muhammad Yunus as its head but the repercussions and violence aimed against minority communities is still happening unabated in various forms with sinister facets. Many among these have been forced to resign from jobs. There seems no end to their miseries. As per the reports, as on date nearly 500 people have been killed and properties of millions of rupees have been destroyed.It is shocking that the world community viz OIC, United nation , European Union , Global Powers and other human right violation organizations have turned deaf ears to the atrocities committed by protesters on minority communities in Bangladesh especially Hindu genocide.Their selective approach with a hypocrtical sting would set a dangerous trend for future incidents any where in the world. Therefore a very pertinent question which needs to be addressed is that, what are the causes which led to this turmoil and instability in Bangladesh. Furthermore, the implications in South Asia needs to be foreseen. Before that one must understand the history of formation of 53 years old young nation emerging out of partition of East and West Pakistan. The revolt in East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) was led by Sheikh Mujibur Rehman the then leader of Awami League who had secured full majority on 7th December1970 Pak Assembly election but was denied to form a Government by the then dictator of Pakistan General Agha Muhammad Yahya Khan at the behest of Zulifikar-Ali Bhutto. Because the leaders in West Pakistan never wanted Bengali Muslim as their Prime minister.
This gross injustice done to people of East Pakistan now Bangladesh sowed the seeds of revolt and forced them to raise up against the then ruler of East Pakistan. The Pakistan Army tried to crush the Liberation Struggle of East Pakistani people by using the extensive force.. They let loose the reign of terror and committed atrocities on the innocent people. During this Liberation Struggle, there were widespread killings, displacement and gross human right violations. As per reports available, beginning with operation Search Light, Pakistan Army supported with Para Military forces killed an estimated 300,000 to 3000,000 Bengali Muslims and Hindus, raped about 200,000 to 400,000 Bengali Women in a systemic campaign of genocide rape. Pak religious leaders openly supported this heinous crime on innocent freedom fighters as Hindu Bengali women as a booty of war where as on the contrary there were nearly 80 percent of population in East Pakistan( Now Bangladesh) was Muslim at that time. Many of them were made sex slaves. The atrocities inflicted on Bengalis in East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) will always be regarded as a darkest era in the history of Bangladesh. Following the liberation on 16th December 1971, the Bangladesh witnessed a transition in many ways with several alterations of the Government till date with multitude of hiccups. Since the first recorded uprising in August 1975 and Bangladesh Rifles revolt in 2009, the Bangladesh has been through 29 military coups. The reason may be the geopolitical location of Bangladesh. The key factor is its geographically apt location. The country shares nearly 4010 km land border with India and nearly 207 km with Myanmar and close proximity to China. Therefore Bangladesh is a natural link between the giant trade blocks of the associates of the South East Asian nations and the South Asian Associates. Hence for any regional coordination, Bangladesh’s inclusion is imperative. Therefore, violent revolt and seize of Dhaka by millions of people may be viewed as a conspiracy at large to dislodge the Iron Lady Sheikh Hasina Wazed from power as she was not toeing to the line of global powers. Therefore the axis of nations with vested interest wanted to establish a weak government with support of hardliners, dancing to their tunes.
As per reports available even former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had stated that in one of the meeting with White man she was offered a “Hassle Free Elections” on the condition that she allows a foreign power base for operation on the Saint Martin’s Island. It is also true that China and ISI of Pakistan are bent upon in facilitating turmoil and chaos in Bangladesh because both the nations have their vested interests in South Asia especially in Bangladesh by virtue of its geopolitical location. Therefore the axis of China, Pakistan and USA in destabilizing the strong government in Bangladesh may not be ruled out. On the contrary weak, unstable government backed by Islamist fundamentalists in Bangladesh dancing to their tune will certainly serve their purpose especially providing supports to the insurgents in North East Region. It is also true that Bangladesh in the past had provided a safe haven and launch pads for the cross border terrorism in the north east region(NER)’ The region has seen a spurt in jihadi groups and fundamentalist political out fits especially in the lower part of Assam where there is a significant population of illegal Bangladeshi migrants. Besides harboring insurgents, they have also provided support for the camps established on the soil of Bangladesh which had also served as a transit for weapons for insurgency operations against India. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasnia’s outlook had been to curb such militant outfits. However, if pro Pakistan Government backed by Islamic fundamentalists ascends to power then they would not only allow the insurgents to strengthen their grounds again but also change the dynamics of world in many ways. First and foremost is to be seen is the role of new leadership in the South Asia which holds significant place by virtue of being a strategic geopolitical location of Bangladesh. If the new Government leadership chose to align with China and Pakistan then this would definitely tilt balance of power in South Asia. The security implications would be gruesome. Subsequently, this will also cause strained relations of Bangladesh Government with India and USA. That will not be in the interest of Bangladesh from the economic point of view. This could destabilize region impacting security and economic stability.
Secondly, after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina Government the, fundamentalists at behest of ISI in collusion with China have engineered violence and targeting the minority communities especially Hindus is currently happening. This will further isolate Bangladesh. This may also lead to instability and financial crisis and may lead to closeness to certain global powers thereby altering the dynamics of region.
Thirdly, the most critical effect would be on the Bangladesh’s economy It may not be out of context to mention here that over the years, Bangladesh was seen as an emerging economy particularly in textile and manufacturing sector. The unstable and weak regime backed by fundamentalists and Jihadi organizations could disrupt the economic growth thereby affecting the supply chain especially in garment industry. This might have ripple effects on global market and trade relations.
Fourth, a domination of Islamic extremism could potentially create an environment for nurturing of terrorism in the region and beyond. This will not be in the interest of Bangladesh’s society.
Lastly, this may lead to significant out flow of refugees either due to political persecution or economic collapse. This could have a global implications, as countries in South East Asia, and even beyond may face new challenges related to refugee influxes. Humanitarian organizations would need to respond potentially drawing resources from other global crisis. The author is of the opinion that the removal of Sheikh Hasina Wazed from power will have significant impact on both regional and global dynamics. The extent of which will depend upon the type of government that assumes power in Bangladesh after elections as promised by Army Chief General Wakir- uz- Zaman. If in Bangladesh power is shifted to Islamist backed hardliners and fundamentalists then it will have serious impact on south Asia and will also alter global power structure, economic conditions and global security.
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