K B Jandial
Straight Talk
The first Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 are all set to begin on 18th September which will give a political Govt to the people. Political parties have ramped up their campaigning through manifestos, rallies, interviews, and door-to-door visits, that enlivened the electoral environment. These elections are being held after a ten-year gap, the longest ever in the history of J&K, surpassing the previous nine-year gap from 1984 to 1996 when J&K had crumbled due to outbreak of cross border terrorism.
People, particularly in Kashmir, are very enthusiastic, for the first time without fear of militant reprisals, unlike past elections when MLAs & MPs used to be elected with polling ranging from 5 to 20 %. The recent Lok Sabha elections saw a record turnout in Baramulla (59%), Anantnag (53%), and Srinagar (38%).
While PM Modi attributed this record participation to Kashmiri voters’ faith in democracy, fostered by the fearless environment created in post-abrogation of Article 370, the Kashmiri leaders called it public expression against these constitutional changes. Whatever be the voters’ unspoken reasons, the fact remains that they did not feel any risk in visiting polling booths and casting votes that symbolizes victory of Indian democracy. The voters’ turnout would surely cross May’s voting percentage.
Meanwhile, Kashmir witnessed some unexpected developments. Engineer Rashid MP has been released on bail by the Supreme Court to campaign for his party, AIP, much like Arvind Kejriwal during the Lok Sabha elections. Members of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have joined the fray as independent candidates. Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone, a former ally of the BJP, are contesting from two constituencies each, signalling their nervousness. Omar adopted a unique style of electioneering, when he was seen ‘begging for votes,’ with his cap in hands that reflected the toll his recent loss to Engineer Rashid has taken on his confidence. Pre-poll Alliance between Dr. Rashid’s AIP and JeI have posed a big trouble for NC-Congress & PDP.
Congress and PDP accused Modi Govt of this game plan to defeat their candidates, dubbing them as BJP’s B-teams. Despite ten years of Central Rule, incredible development and turn around in ground situations that befitted Kashmir’s daily life, trade & commerce and tourism, Kashmiris are not likely to favor BJP or its perceived B-teams which the targeted parties are trying to counter effectively. These dynamics have altered earlier perception of an easy victory for the recently formed NC-Congress alliance in Kashmir.
In Jammu too, the BJP is now gaining increased acceptability. It is primarily due to mandate to new faces thereby negating anti-incumbency; NC & PDP commitment to roll back abrogated Articles 370 & 35A; promise to change names of Shankaracharya Hill & Hari Parbat in Kashmir having famous temples atop as Takht-i-Sulaiman & Koh-e-Maranto; NC’s promise to alter reservation policies and concerns about the return of Kashmiri dominance in UT Government. Rahul Gandhi’s remarks about removing the Maharaja in 1947, made during his speech at Ramban, have been taken as offensive to Dogras in Jammu.
Article 370 remains central to the J&K election. Earlier, its abrogation was the old promise of BJP against the NC demand of restoration of pre-1953 situation. During Vajpayee’s time when NC was BJP’s ally, the Assembly autonomy resolution was rejected by the Centre. And when BJP & NDA managed two third support in the Parliament, it abrogated Article 370 in August 2019 which has since been upheld by the Apex Court unanimously. In normal course, the matter should have been finally rested. But it was not to be so. In whatever way, Article 370 and Article 35A are bound to be reflected in every election in J&K.
The NC has made roll back of Articles 370 & 35A a key part of its manifesto, though it is recognized by its leaders that reversing this decision would be extremely difficult, if not impossible. The PDP too immediately supported it, even though it suffered public snub from NC which did not ink alliance with it despite being a part of broader INDI Alliance. Silence of Congress on its ally’s call on roll back of Articles 370 & 35 A will impact Hindu voters.
With a political vacuum, Jammu’s concerns were not addressed by the bureaucracy, mostly manned by non-local officers. There is only one Advisor to the Lt Governor, who too is non-local, and the people found it difficult to get their concerns addressed. The latest is the diktat of the Finance Department that forced lakhs of pensioners to undergo avoidable harassment for “Physical verification of Pensioners/ family Pensioners” by visiting JKB & concerned Treasury. Intriguingly, this avoidable exercise came up on the eve of the Assembly election.
This, however, didn’t mean that nothing good has been done in the last five years. Unprecedented development schemes and projects have been launched and completed in record time including iconic AIIMS, IIT, SMART City projects, Railway tunnels, world’s highest Railway bridge on the Chenab etc. Many administrative innovative schemes too have come up like Back 2 Village, My Town My Pride, empowering elected Panchayati institutions etc. Despite such historic development endeavors and changed ground situation in Kashmir which facilitated safe visits to Lal Chowk of leaders of every party including Rahul Gandhi, the goodwill is difficult to be converted into votes. Militancy has been brought down appreciably even though militants are still able to strike both in Kashmir and Jammu. While people keep listening to claims of near end of militancy, terrorists continue to target security personnel and would continue to do so till Pakistan is crippled of its striking capabilities. Appreciably, there is no call for boycott of elections and shut down in present day Kashmir with no stone pelting.
Articles 370 & 35A have emotional connect with the people of Kashmir who were fed with a notion of a separate nation with its own Constitution, Flag, Emblem etc. but a sizable section of Jammu’s non-Muslim population are too disenchanted, saying hameykyamila?. What benefits were they expecting? In fact, it removed the decades old discriminatory treatment to certain categories of people like West Pakistan refugees, Dalits, Gorkha and to some extent, the hereditary issue of siblings of women married to “non-State Subjects”. The ‘State Subject’ has been replaced by the Domicile certificate, protecting Govt jobs for them. Yes, the scope of Domiciliary rules has been broadened to include All India Service officers and other Central Govt officials, Army & security personnel, businessmen and other non-State subjects working in J&K for a particular period with caveat. However, purchase of land by non-J&K residents has political overtones, mostly in Kashmir. On the flip side, the cost of land in Jammu will go up if there is a rush of such buyers, which is not discernible at present.
Jammu is a land of Dogras, known for offering supreme sacrifices to protect the integrity of India. It is not in their DNA to ask for a premium for their sacrifices & commitment to the unity of India. If residents of Jammu & Kashmir can buy land or property in Gurugram, Delhi, Bengaluru, Pune why can’t other Indians buy land in Jammu & Kashmir following the relevant rules of UT? But then, what is in Jammu that attracts outsiders to come & settle here? Jammu is no financial, industrial, IT or even medical hub that can attract youth for jobs or investment. If no Jammuite has ever bought land or property in Kashmir to live there, being a hostile land, who in India would settle there, even though it a ‘paradise on earth’. If the original natives of Kashmir, the KPs, could not stay there safely and are reluctant to return, who else would venture out there. But the sentiments of gullible people would be exploited with such talks.
Promise to roll back these two controversial Articles in the Constitution is brazenly misleading. The Kashmiri leaders know it well that amending the Constitution of India to restore these provisions is not an easy task. It requires two third majority in both Houses of the Parliament which neither NC or PDP nor like-minded national parties collectively would ever have. The abrogation of Articles 370 & 35 A is backed by pan India sentiments. Even the Congress, which has not yet come clean on the NC manifesto on Article 370 and reservations, would not support. It cannot afford to support restoration of these provisions. Dr Farooq has said that if BJP can wait for 70 years to fulfill its agenda, NC too can wait that long to get it back. So, NC would keep it alive. If voted to power in J&K, the first thing it would do is to pass a formal resolution for restoration of Articles 370 & 35A and Statehood and send it to the Centre like Autonomy Resolution. This Resolution too will meet the same fate but people of Kashmir would continue to be fooled on this issue.
It should be remembered that Article 370 was formulated in such a manner that the autonomy given to J&K would gradually be diluted constitutionally, which it was subjected to right from the beginning. It had already become hollow over the years but its adverse emotional, psychological, and political import on the minds of people, especially the gullible youth of Kashmir, has been dangerous. It only promoted anti-India sentiments in a particular section of the population. Instead of containing these sentiments, the past political masters used it as an instrument of political blackmail. Close to overwhelming anger on perceived rigging in the 1987 Assembly election, Pakistan found J&K a fertile situation to inject terrorism in J&K which has so far taken a huge toll of more than 50,000 lives till now. And it would continue, contrary claims notwithstanding.
Militancy in Kashmir has been controlled as never before, not because of abrogation of Article 370, but by firm and bold handling of militants, their mentors, sympathisers & over ground workers, using available legal provisions. The channels of hawala money that was keeping militancy alive, have been effectively choked. As Assembly polling draws nearer, sporadic terror strikes including in Jammu, are expected. Pakistan with which Kashmiri leadership wanted Modi to open dialogue, is activating its dormant ‘sleeper cells’ in different pockets in the UT to strike wherever possible. To ensure continuity of the existing level of pressure on the militants and their supporters, the MHA would like to directly control the security situation which is otherwise also in the MHA’s hand under the law.
There is no imminent possibility of restoration of Statehood. It is not in the domain of the Assembly to do it even if it passes a resolution. Statehood does not fall in MHA’s strategy on J&K, PM & HM’s promise to restore it notwithstanding.
Initial reports, even of intelligence agencies indicated a majority of NC-Congress in the election, but things are now changing on the ground. The PM’s future rallies may further improve BJP chances but it is still a long way to go. Multiple candidates in Kashmir make the election wide open.
(feedback: kbjandial@gmail.com)
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