By Ashis Biswas
KOLKATA: During the last few months, a disturbing discordance between India’s ambitious developmental initiative in its Northeast and a spectacular failure of governance from Manipur to Assam, has impacted regional stability. Alarmingly, despite GOI’s serious efforts to improve the Manipur law and order situation, even traditional social ethnic relationships, far from flourishing, are rapidly cracking.,
A clear physical challenge has now emerged in the NE region, threatening India’s vaulting socio-economic ambitions as enshrined in its LookEast initiative. Also, there can be no denying that the NDA Government’s handling of historically contentious ethnicity related issues in this highly volatile region , has stoked latent regional tensions ,even if unintentionally.
The continuing ethnic tensions in Manipur have already disturbed peace and stability in neighbouring Mizoram, while causing concern in Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. Since the outbreak of the Meitei vs Kuki-Zo tribal hostility, at least 180 people have been killed. Over 100,000 people have been displaced, property worth hundreds of crores destroyed. Let alone development, routine official functioning, under the joint supervision of GOI and the BJP government, has suffered.
More worryingly, there seems to be no way out of the tangled standoff between different communities even though talks between all concerned actors — the Meiteis, the Kuki-Zo groups, the BJP-ruled centre and the state — have continued. While there is general anger among people over the role played by State Chief Minister Mr Biren Singh, it is only fair to acknowledge that with his limited power and resources, he has been a victim of much stronger regional forces beyond his control.
In fact the failure of the mighty Central government, which has the prime responsibility in maintaining regional peace and harmony, is being consciously downplayed by influential sections of the pro-establishment mass media. While officially appointed ‘security advisers’ or senior officers get rapped on their knuckles, there is surprisingly mild criticism, if at all, of the utter ineptitude of BJP’s most prominent regional leader, Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam.
His much vaunted special knowledge about the political complexities of the NE region hardly mattered in bringing about a positive change in the Manipur situation, despite his active involvement with ongoing negotiations/parleys at the apex level. Sadly it has been no different with the specialised security inputs provided to the NDA leadership by ‘experts’ so deeply trusted by the Union Home Ministry.
As one commentator put it succinctly, ‘No one could foresee or warn us that Kuki militants would start raining drones and rockets on the state capital Imphal, after all the security ‘bandobast’ and restrictions people saw on the ground‘!
The location of Manipur and Mizoram are important: it is through these states that many of India’s proposed transport connectivity projects, accessing Myanmar and other southeast Asian countries, are routed. Just for the record, during the past decade, GOI has invested at least Rs 28572 crore in railway projects in the NE region and not less than Rs 3814 crore in different road development schemes. Therefore, if normal governance suffers in Manipur and Mizoram for long periods, the future of India’s ambitious infra development programmes, specifically planned to extend its outreach to Myanmar and beyond into Southeast Asia will be jeopardized.
Already, the future of regional connectivity projects involving the co-operation of Myanmar ,such as the Kaladan multimodal traffic development project, conceived at least 12/15 years ago, has been delayed again because of the ongoing civil was there ! The long term regional development prospects for a fast developing industrial powerhouse like India hardly look promising as of now.
While there is little that GOI can do in Myanmar except through diplomatic initiatives, it has to and must, react more proactively in setting matters right in Manipur at home.
The increasing physical involvement of foreign-based forces in NE-based ongoing ethnic disputes, resulting in a marked escalation in the illegal supply of advanced weapons and greater outbreaks of violence, is only one aspect of the present situation. The recent use of drones and rockets by Kuki militants in Manipur’s capital Imphal attest to that. The insurgents are serving notice to Delhi that they are more than a match for India’s paramilitary forces in the use of sophisticated arms and weaponry, and can even take on the army if needed.
Hardly surprising — with their historical roots in neighbouring Myanmar and continuing relationship with fellow kinsmen like Chins, Kukis, as well as Nagas and other tribes in NE India have no problem in getting active support from hard core militants who regularly fight units of the Myanmar for political autonomy !
So far GOI has responded by sending more forces and weaponry to Manipur, doing too little too late in the present situation, but further widening/lengthening the conflict. Policymakers really do not have any options. The state police or paramilitary cannot be seen to be outgunned by their attackers in skirmishes that never end! Thus, even if it means yet another escalation in the present level of violence, more arms must be used if needed. This, even as dialogue/diplomacy continue as usual.
In response to the drones and rockets attack therefore, the state Government will equip the police force with medium machine guns produced by Jabalpore ordnance factory using 7.62mm bullets, to combat armed tribal militants. Policemen will undergo army training for a period.
This is the worst possible — but also perhaps unavoidable outcome that could have happened In the region. GOI alone cannot be blamed for the ongoing deadlock. National policymakers have spared no efforts to engage various groups including Nagas, Kukis, Zo-s and others to work out a solution. But no one should be surprised that diplomatic efforts often hardly matter in an area with a long legacy of deadly armed ethno-based conflicts through past centuries.
Worse, the basic cause seeding such conflicts — which groups should possess/control how much territory within a region where post 1947, states within the Indian union have come up — existing borders dividing states have been accepted tentatively, at best. Attempts to work out a comprehensive settlement — resulting in well defined, autonomous territory for the Nagas, or the Mizos, etc — have remained inconclusive through decades. Along with this have come fresh demands from different groups each involving a further dilution of political authority of GOI/State government in the very process of governance in the region.
Unlike colonial British rulers, who preferred to exercise minimum control, leaving warring tribes to settle scores among themselves, now and then setting off one tribe against another , the NDA Government believes in incorporating the NE region more firmly into Bharat and vice versa, as an integral part of its own brand of political inclusivity. During its long innings at the centre, Congress leaders never attempted to do this. Nor was there any noticeable effort to develop the NE economy.
The NDA’s task has become more complicated also because of the differences among the tribal forces arraigned against the state government.
One group among the Kukis/Zo tribal communities are agitating for a separate state. However, there are others among them who have been seeking to create nothing short of an independent country and have already done some preliminary work towards achieving this end.
They have written to various international authorities such as the UN, the UK and other major powers, outlining their long standing grievances, accusing GOI of neglect and exploitation of their aspirations. Nothing short outright freedom and self government will help the dissatisfied tribes to realise their minimum democratic aspirations.
The Kuki-Zos are by no means the first among Indian tribal/communities groups containing an extremist fringe, as some would say, to seek international assistance in what is essentially an Indian domestic problem. Such moves may impact the tenuous, delicate relationship between the mainstream majority ruling the centre and ethically distinct tribal/other communities in India’s farthest periphery. The insurgent Naga groups striving for their own territory post 1947 had sought the support of the Christian church and Western organisations. So did the Mizos and later the Gorkhas led by late Subash Ghising under the GNLF banner.
Most of these groups/communities, received moral support from countries like the US and the UK. Some factions even secured illegal arms and ammunition from China and Pakistan, for a time. Over the years, such initiatives have changed in terms of their format and execution, as social media platforms expanded exponentially in terms of power, reach and influence. Examples of success: the Ukraine Maidan agitation 2014 or Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2024.
As of now it is difficult to foresee a positive breakthrough in the current Manipur imbroglio. So far, Kukis are escaping from Meitei dominated areas and vice versa. There are serious complaints about the excesses carried out against Kuki-Zos by the semi official vigilante armed organisation that the state Government projects as a self defence force for Meiteis.
More ethnic violence leading to mass casualties, ambush attacks, destruction of property seem likely, the short term. In Cynics say diplomatic efforts involving the GOI and all concerned parties have so far yielded no results. A bloody confrontation seems inevitable.
They may well be reminded of an observation made by a Russian diplomat during a particularly difficult negotiation: ‘Even ten years of talks is preferable to a single day’s all out war ‘! (IPA Service)
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