By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Election campaigns for all participating political parties in the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir Vidhan Sabha election has unquestionably centred round the chief issue – restoration of the abrogated Article 370 of the Constitution of India and the lost statehood of this Union Territory. The electoral battle has been turning into a struggle for re-establishing political relevance in Jammu and Kashmir for two national parties – BJP and Congress, two regional parties National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and a new entrant Engineer Radhid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) that vowed to defeat BJP’s ‘New Kashmir’ Agenda. Among them there are large number of allegedly proxy candidates of the BJP, and independents supported by Jamaat-e-Islami.
Obviously, BJP’s policies relating to Jammu and Kashmir are put on trial where these are being implemented. Until now, the party has been using the issue of Article 370 and political dominance of Muslims in the state, separatism, and terrorism in elections across the country and derived huge political benefit ultimately rising to power at the Centre. The elections outcome in Jammu and Kashmir will bring the real sentiments of the people of this Union Territory as to how they felt about the implementation of the BJP’s policies.
The last phase of election for 40 Vidhan Sabha Constituencies is scheduled to be held on October 1. A total of 50 Assembly Constituencies have already polled in the first two phases – 24 in the first phase on September 18 and 26 in the second phase on September 25.
BJP is firmly against restoration of Article 370, that it had abrogated in 2019 along with the Article 35 A of the Constitution of India. With that the special status of the State of Jammu and Kashmir was gone. Jammu and Kashmir then also lost its statehood, it was split into two Union Territories – Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
The two regional parties NC and PDP have announced to bring resolution to restore Article 370 and its former statehood status. Since NC is part of the INDIA bloc, Congress has to perform a tightrope walk on the issue of restoration of Article 370. BJP is continuously chiefly attacking Congress since it is a national party while Congress has been silent on whether it would support NC and PDP on Article 370. Gain or loss to NC and PDP on this issue will be limited to Jammu and Kashmir while it would impact the political fortunes on the Congress and BJP across the country.
Though Congress is seen on a tightrope walk on the issue of restoration of Article 370, it has vowed to fight for restoration of statehood for Jammu and Kashmir. On the electoral battleground, people are asking whether the Congress would support the restoration of the statehood before it was done away with in 2019, or for the present Union Territory after its bifurcation. Congress candidates are in very difficult situation in this regard.
However, the BJP is not also in very good shape. Though it has been giving assurance of restoration of statehood, people are asking when. BJP is still not giving any timeline, and also not assuring that they would restore the statehood as it was before the state was split into two. BJP had tried hard to make the development of Jammu and Kashmir, but it has still been occupying rear seat, since voters believe that the party aims at looting the resources of Jammu and Kashmir. As for restoring peace in Jammu and Kashmir, it is nowhere seen near. The party which claimed that they would neutralize terrorists in their own home turf in Pakistan, is unable to defend its own security personnels from terrorist attacks here within the country. BJP’s claim of providing security against terror attacks have been greatly undermined during the election campaigns.
Jamaat-e-Islami that boycotted elections for several decades in Jammu and Kashmir, is now supporting many independent candidates, many of whom were former members of this banned outfit. It is a new development in this election.
Top leaders of both the national parties – the Congress’s Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, and BJP’s PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have been campaigning for their parties. Both the parties are accusing each other for all the predicaments of Jammu and Kashmir. Congress is contesting on 32 seats in seat sharing arrangement, while in half a dozen seats it is in friendly contest with INDIA bloc constituents. BJP on the other hand is contesting on 63 seats.
Among the regional parties NC is contesting on 50 while PDP on 63 seats. This shows that no political party in Jammu and Kashmiris contesting on all 90 seats. It is indicative of the coming highly fractured political mandate for which there are also numerous other reasons.
Among the 40 seats going to poll on October 1, BJP is contesting, 2 out of six seats in Kupwara district. Party is not contesting any seat in Baramulla where there are 7 seats, and a jailed separatist Engineer Rashid’s candidates are strong. Engineer Rashid has won this Lok Sabha seat recently while in jail. BJP is contesting all 3 seats in Bandipora, all 4 seats in Udhampur, all 6 seats in Kathua, all three seats in Samba, and all 11 seats in Jammu.
BJP is in direct contest in majority of 26 seats in the last phase with INDIA bloc. In the rest of the 14 seats INDIA bloc is in three multi corner contests with PDP, Engineer Rashids party, or independents. Election outcome will show how much political relevance the national or regional political parties have in Jammu and Kashmir, which is staring at a fractured mandate for now. Formation of the UT’s government may see several twists and turns in post-poll scenario, if direction of political wind does not change in the couple of days left for election on October 1.
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