By Dr. Gyan Pathak
A perform or perish moment has arrived for INDIA bloc in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Election Commission of India announced the schedule for Vidhan Sabha Election in Maharashtra in single phase on November 20, and in Jharkhand in two phases on November 13 and 20.INDIA bloc has given itself the task to wrest power from the NDA in Maharashtra, and to retain power in Jharkhand, but challenges before them have recently been accented after the Congress’s humiliating setback in Haryana Vidhan Sabha election.
The impact of Congress’s losing the largely perceived winning electoral battle in Haryana has alarmed the INDIA bloc’s allies in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand about Congress’s ability to perform at the desired level. Congress had contested Haryana without INDIA bloc, and the contest was chiefly between the Congress and BJP. However, in Maharashtra and Jharkhand the contest will be between INDIA bloc and the NDA, since BJP also is heavily dependent upon its allies.
Therefore, it is a foregone conclusion that any loss or gain will impact the fate of the political alliances. In comparison to NDA, INDIA bloc will be facing a greater risk of disintegration in case of losing these two elections, on account of theirs being in not in power at the Centre. Obviously, it is a perform or perish moment for the INDIA bloc.
Already conscious about such a risk, INDIA bloc allies in both the states are going ahead very carefully. Being the only national political party, Congress has greater responsibility of sealing seat sharing arrangement with INDIA bloc allies by given due weightage to the regional political parties. Currently, in both the states INDIA bloc is stronger than the NDA, which is self-evident from the Vidhan Sabha segment-wise Lok Sabha Election 2024 results.
However, Haryana Vidhan Sabha election result has shaken the confidence of the INDIA bloc allies because similar was the case in Haryana where almost all political analysts and poll surveys had predicted Congress’s sweep against the ruling BJP facing a severe anti-incumbency, but the result belied all and BJP won. BJP’s win showed their excellent political strategy that NDA is trying to replicate in Maharashtra and Jharkhand necessitating INDIA bloc to come forward with a matching political strategy, along with re-energising their rank and file with a greater hope to win.
On the other hand, BJP and its allies in the NDA are in upbeat mood after the BJP’s Haryana win, and they are now nurturing a hope to retain power in Maharashtra and wrest power from INDIA bloc in Jharkhand.
Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) are the chief contestant alliances which are nationally known as NDA and INDIA bloc respectively. Chief political parties in Mahayuti are the splinter Shiv Sena (Shinde), splinter NCP (Ajit Pawar) and the BJP. Chief political parties in MVA are Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress.
In Maharashtra, there are 288 Vidhan Sabha Constituencies. Vidhan Sabha segment-wise Lok Sabha election result shows that NDA had gained lead in only 128, which was far less than 203 it had won in 2019 Vidhan Sabha election. As against 103 seats BJP had won in 2019, it could maintain its lead in only 83. Shiv Sena (Shinde) maintained its lead at 38 it had won in 2019, while NCP (Ajit Pawar) heavily lost and its leads were reduced to only 6 from 40 it had won.
In comparison to the NDA’s leads, INDIA bloc in Maharashtra was able to gain leads in as many as 151 seats as against 69 it had won in 2019. Obviously, INDIA bloc has performed well, the Vidhan Sabha segment-wise Lok Sabha result 2024 shows. All the three chief allies of the INDIA bloc performed well – Congress increased its lead from 37 in 2019 to 63, Shiv Sena (UBT) from 16 to 56, and NCP (Sharad Pawar from 12 to 32.
Additionally, NDA is facing an anti-incumbency wave in Maharashtra. Even in such a favourable situation, INDIA bloc will need to carefully make seat sharing arrangement if it wants to wrest power from Mahayuti in the state.
As for Jharkhand is concerned, Mahagathbandhan, that is INDIA bloc is in power led by JMM. Here also, INDIA bloc allies need to carefully enter into seat sharing arrangement, if it wants to retain power, in the light of latest political development in the state. NDA led by BJP has been campaigning against JMM led rule with renewed vigour, and even PM Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah has already visited the state multiple times and addressed political rallies. BJP is relying chiefly on anti-incumbency in the state and anti-Muslim votes consolidation in BJP’s favour.
Nevertheless, Vidhan Sabha segment-wise Lok Sabha election result shows INDIA bloc in poor light. JMM has 30 seats in the 81 seat Vidhan Sabha, but Lok Sabha election 2024 shows that it has gained lead only in the 15 Vidhan Sabha segments. INDIA bloc had gained lead in only 29 seats. BJP had gained lead in 47 against its strength of 26 in the current Vidhan Sabha, while NDA’s lead was on 52 seats. Obviously, Jharkhand pose significant challenge to INDIA bloc. (IPA Service)
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