Dr Ruchika Raina
The partnership of the Indian National Congress (INC) and the National Conference (NC) has achieved a majority in the recent Jammu and Kashmir elections, prompting a focus on the region’s distinct political position. The disputed role of the Lieutenant Governor (LG) and the increasing desire for the reinstatement of statehood are crucial concerns as the new administration prepares to assume office. As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prepares to assume an opposition role, inquiries over the Union Territory (UT) status and the governance framework of Jammu and Kashmir are anticipated to prevail in political discussions.
Notwithstanding the triumph of the INC-NC alliance, the role of the LG remains influential, indicative of Jammu and Kashmir’s present status as a Union Territory. Following the abrogation of Article 370 and the division of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories (J&K and Ladakh) in 2019, the Lieutenant Governor, nominated by the Central Government, has been essential in governing the province.
The Role of the Lieutenant Governor
in Post-Election Governance
The LG possesses significant power over essential governance matters, especially concerning peace and order, policing, and public administration, as the leader of the Union Territory. Despite the election results, the LG’s authority remains important, constraining the newly elected government’s capacity to exert complete control over these domains. The INC-NC coalition administration may encounter discord with the LG’s office, especially about issues of policing, security, and administrative appointments. The equilibrium between the power of the elected government and the influence of the LG will be a critical aspect to monitor as the new administration endeavours to establish its dominance.
Moreover, the coalition may advocate for a diminution of the LG’s authority or, at the very least, seek enhanced oversight of regional governance. Nonetheless, any substantial reduction of the LG’s authority would necessitate collaboration with the national government, which may prove to be a formidable challenge, particularly with the BJP in opposition.
A Push for Statehood
The INC-NC combination has prominently pledged to restore complete Statehood for Jammu & Kashmir. Following the abrogation of Article 370, the territory was reclassified from statehood to Union Territory status, a decision that has garnered significant discontent, especially in the Kashmir Valley. The status of Jammu and Kashmir as a Union Territory or a state is a pivotal concern for the new government.
Restoring statehood would entail the reinstatement of enhanced legislative and executive authority to the elected government, thereby diminishing the Central Government’s direct oversight via the local government. This would encompass complete authority over law and order, presently under the jurisdiction of the LG, together with enhanced fiscal independence.
Although the INC-NC administration is anticipated to vigorously promote statehood, the realization of this objective will hinge on the Central Government’s readiness to participate. The BJP-led Central Government may hesitate to reinstate statehood without robust guarantees against potential political instability or security threats, especially considering the region’s history of militancy and secession.
A phased approach may serve as a viable compromise, wherein limited sovereign powers are reinstated incrementally, and contingent upon enhanced governance and security conditions. This may involve conferring increased autonomy to local government in some sectors while maintaining central oversight in critical domains such as law enforcement and border security.
Delimitation and Political Representation
The 2022 delimitation of election constituencies has altered the political dynamics in Jammu & Kashmir. The delimitation procedure, aimed at redrawing electoral boundaries according to population and topography, augmented the number of constituencies in the Jammu area relative to the Kashmir Valley. This was perceived by some as an effort to enhance the BJP’s political prospects in the Hindu-dominant Jammu area.
The triumph of the INC-NC alliance demonstrates that, notwithstanding the delimitation, regional parties retain considerable influence, especially in the Kashmir Valley. The alteration of constituency borders may persist in influencing future elections, potentially augmenting Jammu’s political significance.
The INC-NC alliance is expected to advocate for a reassessment of the delimitation process, contending that it has skewed political representation in favour of Jammu to the detriment of the Valley. This may prompt demands for another round of delimitation to guarantee a more equitable allocation of political power between the two regions.
BJP in Opposition: Shaping the Statehood Debate
As the BJP transitions to the opposition, it will probably persist in promoting the region’s integration with India through the Union Territory model, underscoring national security, development, and law and order. The BJP has ardently advocated for the abrogation of Article 370 and is anticipated to oppose any efforts to revert to the pre-2019 status quo.
The BJP is expected to express apprehensions on the ramifications of reinstating statehood in an area characterized by a legacy of militancy and separatist inclinations. The party will contend that preserving Jammu and Kashmir’s designation as a Union Territory is essential for national security, especially due to its strategic position and the persistent tensions with Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC).
The BJP may present the discourse as a dichotomy between accelerated development under Union Territory status and a reversion to political autonomy, which it may depict as a potential threat to stability. This story may appeal to voters in the Jammu region, who would favour economic development and security over political autonomy.
Security and Governance Challenges Ahead
The security situation in Jammu and Kashmir continues to be a significant worry for both the new administration and central authorities. The region has experienced intermittent outbreaks of violence, originating from both local insurgents and cross-border incursions from Pakistan. The extent of control the elected administration will exert over security problems, especially considering the LG’s retaining powers, will be a significant concern.
The INC-NC administration may pursue collaboration with the federal Government on security issues while pressing for increased autonomy over local law enforcement. This may entail collaborative endeavours to counter militancy while emphasizing community-based initiatives to tackle the underlying causes of unrest.
If the new government be viewed as excessively lax regarding security, the BJP opposition and the Central Government may retaliate, contending that robust central authority is essential to avert the re-emergence of militancy. Achieving equilibrium between ensuring security and fostering political reconciliation will be a significant issue for the next administration.
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Political Future
The success of the INC-NC alliance signifies a substantial transformation in the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir; nonetheless, the path forward is laden with obstacles. The region’s distinctive designation as a Union Territory, the authority retained by the Lieutenant Governor, and the advocacy for statehood will shape the forthcoming era of governance. The new Government will promote increased autonomy and political participation while managing a complex relationship with the BJP-led national government and a prominent opposition.
The future prospects for Jammu and Kashmir will hinge on the dynamics of opposing forces; local desires, national security considerations, and the equilibrium of power between the Lieutenant Governor and the elected government in the forthcoming months. The region is at a pivotal juncture, balancing the potential for political restoration against the intricacies of governance in a delicate and crucial locale.
(The author is Doctorate in Political
Science, Central University of Kashmir)
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